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视频显示朝鲜导弹疑似空中解体

更新时间:2017-8-1 18:49:52 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Success of North Korean Missile Test Is Thrown Into Question
视频显示朝鲜导弹疑似空中解体

Analysts examining video of North Korea’s launch on Friday of an intercontinental ballistic missile that appeared capable of reaching the West Coast of the United States say they saw evidence of a setback the North never mentioned: The mock warhead on the missile shattered into pieces during its fiery re-entry back to earth.

分析师研究了朝鲜上周五发射的、似乎能打到美国西海岸的洲际弹道导弹的视频后说,他们看到的证据显示出朝鲜从未提到的一个问题:导弹重新进入地球大气层时剧烈振动,它搭载的模拟弹头裂成了碎片。

If the analysis is correct, it would mean that North Korea suffered a significant, but not decisive, setback. It suggests that the country, for all its success as it works toward its goal of putting America cities under threat, has not yet mastered the difficult aerodynamics of designing a warhead that can survive re-entry.

如果这个分析是正确的,那就意味着朝鲜遭受了一个严重的但并非决定性的挫折。它表明,尽管该国在将美国城市置于其威胁之下的目标方面取得了一些成功,但尚未掌握艰深的空气动力学,不足以设计出能够安全地重新进入大气层的弹头。

News of the video analysis came as President Trump, asked about the launch for the first time, offered vague assurances that he was on top of the problem. “We’ll handle North Korea,” he said, heading into a cabinet meeting. “We’re going to be able to handle them. It will be handled. We handle everything.”

就在视频分析的消息传出时,美国总统特朗普首次被问及朝鲜试射的事情,他做出了笼统的保证,表示一切都在掌控中。“我们会处理朝鲜的事情,”他在去参加一个内阁会议的时候说。“我们能搞定他们。这件事会处理好的。我们会处理好一切事情。”

Mr. Trump’s statements fell well short of describing a strategy, and his aides were working to develop an approach that goes beyond the largely symbolic flight of B-1B bombers over the Korean Peninsula over the weekend, in response to the test. The bombers accompanied South Korean and Japanese fighters, in a sign of solidarity.

特朗普的声明几乎没有谈及策略,他的助理正在努力制定一套应对朝鲜测试的方法,不仅仅是像上周末那样将B-1B轰炸机派到朝鲜半岛上空进行象征性飞行。作为一种团结一致的信号,这些轰炸机在日韩战机的陪伴下完成了飞行。

The United States has also agreed to negotiate with South Korea over permitting it to develop longer-range missiles, which could strike all parts of North Korea. But that would do little to address the problem of the North’s apparent new ability to reach the continental United States.

美国还同意与韩国谈判,允许它研发射程更长、可以覆盖朝鲜所有地区的导弹。但是,朝鲜似乎掌握了打到美国本土的能力,韩美之间的这个谈判对于解决该问题起不到什么作用。

The findings about the North’s difficulties with a re-entry vehicle came from Michael Elleman, a missile expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London. He said the malfunction of the warhead as it re-entered the earth’s atmosphere “casts doubt” on the North’s ability to shield a nuclear warhead from the blistering heat and vibrations as it heads to its target at the high speeds that intercontinental ballistic missiles typically achieve.

朝鲜导弹重新进入大气层时有问题这件事,是伦敦国际战略研究所(International Institute for Strategic Studies)的导弹专家迈克尔·埃勒曼(Michael Elleman)发现的。他表示,这个弹头重新进入地球大气层时出现的故障“让人怀疑”朝鲜尚未掌握核弹头屏蔽在洲际弹道导弹高速飞行时产生的高热和振动影响的技术。

In a news conference on Monday, Mr. Elleman said North Korea would have to conduct a minimum of two or three more ICBM test flights to make sure its rocket designers have fixed the warhead problem. Still, he said, the nation will probably be able to develop a workable missile with a reliable warhead by early next year. That would put the country within the rough time period described in recent American intelligence analyses, which predicted that sometime in 2018 all the technologies needed by the North would likely come together in a single weapon.

埃勒曼在周一的新闻发布会上表示,朝鲜至少还将进行另外两到三次洲际导弹试射,才能确保其火箭设计师解决了弹头问题。不过他表示,在明年初,朝鲜可能就研发出可靠的弹头和导弹。这会让朝鲜处在情报分析师所说的攻坚时期,据他们预测,在2018年某个时候,朝鲜恐怕就可以把他们所需要的所有技术集中到一件武器上了。

Fixing the design flaw “might take them another six months,” Mr. Elleman told reporters on a conference call organized by 38 North, a research institute at the Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies. “But the key is that they’ll have to do additional flight tests.”

解决这个设计缺陷“可能需要六个月的时间”,埃勒曼对记者说,“但关键是他们必须进行更多的试射。”他是在约翰·霍普金斯大学(Johns Hopkins University)高级国际研究学院的研究机构38 North组织的一个电话会议上说这番话的。

The need for more tests creates an opening for the Trump administration.

朝鲜需要进行更多的试射,这为特朗普当局提供了一些处理时间。

Under President Barack Obama, North Korean missile tests were regularly subject to cyber and electronic attacks. Among its military options, the Trump administration could accelerate those attacks, but they appeared less effective over the past six months.

在奥巴马总统时期,朝鲜的导弹测试经常遭到网络和电子攻击。特朗普政府手上有一些军事选择,其中一个就是加速这种攻击,但在过去六个月里这个做法似乎效果不佳。

The United States could also position more naval craft in international waters off the North Korean coast. That would give it the option of conducting pre-emptive attacks on missiles on their launchpads — a risky approach because it could trigger a war — or attempting to shoot down test missiles as they are rising through the atmosphere.

美国也可以在朝鲜沿海的国际海域部署海军舰艇。这样一来,美国就可以先发制人用导弹进行攻击——但这是一种冒险的做法,因为可能会引发战争——或是尝试在试射导弹升空之后击落它们。

The videotape of the warhead’s breakup came from the Japanese television station NHK. An affiliate in Muroran City, a port in Hokkaido, Japan’s northernmost large island, keeps a weather camera mounted on a roof. On Friday, in a stroke of luck, the camera was trained on the area of the sky where the mock warhead appeared to plunge back to earth, about 125 miles from the Japanese coast.

弹头解体的视频来自日本NHK电视台。它在日本最北端的大岛北海道的室兰市一个分支机构的屋顶上安装了一台全天候摄像机。幸运的是,周五时,这台摄像机对着天空的方向,正是模拟弹头落入地球的地方,距离日本海岸大约125英里(约200公里)。

The incoming mock warhead, Mr. Elleman said, should have shone brightly and continuously as it fell — like a shooting star streaking to Earth. But in this case, he said, the video shows the bright incoming projectile starting to shed into small radiant objects. Then, quite suddenly, it dims and disappears altogether.

埃勒曼说,这颗模拟弹头应该像奔向地球的流星一样持续闪亮,但是从视频来看,这个明亮的物体进入视野后,开始剥落成小块的发光物。然后,它突然就黯淡下来,完全消失了。

It should have continued to glow until it hit the ocean, he told reporters. “Most likely it broke up,” he said.

它本应该继续发光,直到落入海中,他告诉记者。“很可能它解体了,”他说。

How long it will take the North to fix the design, Mr. Elleman said, depends largely on “how much they learn from this particular test.” His six-month estimate, he said, assumes that the North’s engineers have the ability to correctly diagnose the technical problem and fix it.

埃勒曼说,朝鲜解决这个设计难点需要多长时间,这在很大程度上取决于他们从这次试射中学到了多少东西。他的估计是六个月,前提是朝鲜工程师有正确诊断技术问题并解决它的能力。

“It could be done in three months,” he said. “It may take six months. If they continue to fail, however, it could take a longer period of time. We just don’t know.”

“可能是三个月,”他说。“也可能需要六个月。但是,如果他们一直失败,可能就需要更长的时间。我们完全说不准。”

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