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美国预计朝鲜导弹射程一年内可及美国本土

更新时间:2017-7-27 10:43:31 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Intelligence Agencies Say North Korean Missile Could Reach U.S. in a Year
美国预计朝鲜导弹射程一年内可及美国本土

WASHINGTON — American intelligence agencies have shortened their estimate — to one year — of how long it is likely to take North Korea to put the finishing touches on a missile that can reach the continental United States, according to several administration officials briefed on the new assessment.

华盛顿——几位获得新评估简报的政府官员称,美国情报机构缩短了之前的预测,认为朝鲜可在一年内制造出可以到达美国大陆的导弹。

Until a few weeks ago, the official estimate was that it would take roughly four years, give or take 12 months, for North Korea to develop a missile that could carry a nuclear weapon small enough to fit into the missile’s warhead and capable of surviving the stresses of re-entry and deliver it to the United States.

仅在几周前,官方还认为朝鲜需要四年——可能提早或延后12个月——开发出一种导弹,其弹头可安装足够小的核武器,并能承受再次进入大气层的压力,将核弹头送达美国。

But the realities of the past few months, especially a July 4 test that crossed a major threshold — if just barely — has forced intelligence experts to conclude that their estimates have been too conservative. In the test this month, a missile carried a warhead 1,700 miles into space, and returned it at high speed in a sharp parabola.

但是过去数月的事实,尤其是7月4日跨过一个重要门槛(虽然是勉强跨过)的试验,迫使情报官员得出结论,他们之前的估计太过保守。在本月的试验中,一枚导弹将一个弹头送入1700英里外的太空,并以窄抛物线高速回落。

If the trajectory was flattened out, the missile could strike Alaska. That forced government experts, reflexively cautious after overestimating Iraq’s weapons of mass destruction 14 years ago, back to the drawing board.

如果这个抛物线更宽,那么这枚导弹就可以打击到阿拉斯加。这迫使政府专家们开始重新考虑这个问题。14年前,专家们高估了伊拉克的大规模杀伤性武器,之后变得非常谨慎。

Behind the new assessment, officials said, was a growing recognition that they underestimated the determination of Kim Jung-un, North Korea’s leader, to race ahead with a weapon that could reach American soil, even if it is crudely engineered and inaccurate.

官员们表示,专家们做出这项新评估,是因为他们越来越意识到,他们低估了朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jung-un)开发出能抵达美国本土的武器的决心——虽然它的工程水平较低劣,也不太精准。

General Paul Selva, the vice chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, put the best case forward last week when testifying before the Senate Armed Services Committee. The most recent test, he said, stopped short of demonstrating that North Korea possesses “the capacity to strike the United States with any degree of accuracy or reasonable confidence of success.”

上周,参谋长联席会议(Joint Chiefs of Staff)副主席保罗·塞尔瓦(Paul Selva)将军在向参议院军事委员会(Senate Armed Services Committee)作证时提出了最乐观的情况。他说,最近的试验尚不能表明,朝鲜具备“以任何程度的准确性打击美国的能力,或相信能够取得成功的理由”。

But that statement went far beyond what most Pentagon officials had been allowed to say in public before the most recent test. And it reflects a growing view, from the Defense Intelligence Agency to the C.I.A., that at this point Mr. Kim’s missile engineers, while still refining the technology, have cleared most of the major hurdles.

但是,那项声明远远超出了在近期试验之前大多数五角大楼官员的公开置评口径。这反映出,从国防部情报局(Defense Intelligence Agency)到中央情报局(CIA),越来越多的人认为,此时,金正恩的导弹工程师虽然还在改进技术,但已经清除了大部分主要障碍。

It is unclear how, if at all, that will change the calculus for President Trump. He has vowed to dispense with the Obama-era strategy of “strategic patience” toward North Korea. American military officials have been asked to come up with new potential strategies, from stepped-up economic pressure to increased cyber attacks on the missile testing regimes. But there is a lurking sense, one senior intelligence official said last week at the Aspen Security Forum, that at this point the best the United States can do is delay the day when North Korea demonstrates it can reach beyond Alaska and Hawaii.

这一点将会如何改变(或是否会改变)特朗普总统的计划,目前尚不得而知。他已经宣布放弃奥巴马时代对朝鲜的“战略耐心”。他要求美国军事官员想出新的潜在战略,从加大经济压力,到增加对朝鲜导弹试验系统的网络攻击。但是上周一名高级情报官员在阿斯彭安全论坛(Aspen Security Forum)上表示,他渐渐感觉到,迟早有一天朝鲜会宣布它能打击到阿拉斯加和夏威夷之外的美国领土,美国能做的最多就是推迟那一天的到来。

“It a big long supply chain to build this thing out,” the director of the Central Intelligence Agency, Mike Pompeo, said at the security conference, the first public reference to a long-running covert program to undermine the parts and technologies that flow into North Korea. “As for the regime, I am hopeful we will find a way to separate it” from its missile and nuclear capabilities.

中央情报局局长迈克·庞皮欧(Mike Pompeo)在那场安全会议上首次公开提及破坏流入朝鲜的零件和技术的长期秘密行动。“制造这个东西需要漫长的供应线,”他说。“我觉得我们能找到一个方法”阻止朝鲜政府拥有导弹和核武器。

But the essence of the new assessment, which was first reported by the Washington Post, is that Washington has no more time. If the 2018 estimate is right, North Korea will have a crude capability to reach the continental United States before the nation’s missile defenses are upgraded.

不过这项最早由《华盛顿邮报》(Washington Post)报道的新评估的核心看法是,华盛顿已经没时间了。如果2018年的估计是正确的,那么在美国的导弹防御系统升级之前,朝鲜将拥有打击美国本土的基本能力。

Quietly, the Pentagon has been refining longstanding contingency plans, from intercepting missile parts at sea to attempting, if Mr. Trump should decide to do it, to destroy a missile on the launchpad, before it is tested. But it is more likely that the United States would first try a variant of the effort developed during the Obama administration to sabotage the launches with cyber and electronic warfare techniques, and with a steady flow of bad parts.

五角大楼已经在悄悄改进沿用多年的应急计划,从在海上拦截导弹零件,到尝试在试验前将导弹摧毁在发射台上——如果特朗普决定这样做的话。不过,更可能的情况是,美国会首先尝试曾由奥巴马政府采取的一种行动的变种,通过网络和电子战技术或不断输入坏零件破坏发射。

A spokesperson for the Office of the Director of National Intelligence issued a statement from Scott Bray, the national intelligence manager for East Asia, that walked to the edge of acknowledging that judgments are shifting.

美国国家情报总监办公室(Office of the Director of National Intelligence)的一名发言人发布了国家情报东亚主管斯科特·布雷(Scott Bray)的一项声明,几乎已经是在承认专家们的判断出现了转变。

“North Korea’s recent test of an intercontinental range ballistic missile — which was not a surprise to the Intelligence Community — is one of the milestones that we have expected would help refine our timeline and judgments on the threats that Kim Jong Un poses to the continental United States,” Mr. Bray wrote.

“朝鲜最近的洲际弹道导弹试验——对情报机构来说,这不是新鲜事——是我们预料中的一个里程碑,它将帮助我们更新时间线,判断金正恩对美国本土的威胁,”布雷写道。

“This test, and its impact on our assessments, highlight the threat that North Korea’s nuclear and ballistic missile programs pose to the United States, to our allies in the region, and to the whole world.”

“这次试验以及它对我们评估的影响突出显示了朝鲜的核武器和弹道导弹计划给美国、我们在该地区的盟友以及全世界造成的威胁。”

The steady frequency of the North Korean missile tests, using a new solid fuel technology, came as a surprise to many intelligence experts, providing a different lesson than the one that emerged from Saddam Hussein’s weapons-of-mass destruction program in Iraq.

朝鲜导弹试验稳定的密集程度以及新的固体燃料技术的使用出乎很多情报专家的意料,它提供了一个与萨达姆·侯赛因(Saddam Hussein)在伊拉克的大规模杀伤性武器计划所得出的不同的教训。

In the Iraq case, the intelligence agencies overestimated Saddam Hussein’s ability to reconstitute what was once a healthy nuclear weapons program. In the North Korean case, one senior intelligence official noted last week, the speed and sophistication of the program have been consistently underestimated — much as it was with the Soviet Union 70 years ago, and China more than 50 years ago.

在伊拉克问题上,情报机构高估了萨达姆·侯赛因重建一度完善的核武器计划的能力。而在朝鲜问题上,一名高级情报官员上周指出,朝鲜核计划的推进速度和复杂程度一直被低估,与70年前的苏联和50多年前的中国的情况很像。

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