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十年后,IMF总部会迁至北京吗?

更新时间:2017-7-26 18:47:56 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

International Monetary Fund Based in Beijing? Maybe, Its Director Says
十年后,IMF总部会迁至北京吗?

WASHINGTON — Christine Lagarde, the managing director of the International Monetary Fund, joked on Monday about donning “dream binoculars” and seeing the possibility of relocating the group’s headquarters to China.

华盛顿——国际货币基金组织(International Monetary Fund)总裁克里斯蒂娜·拉加德(Christine Lagarde)周一开玩笑说,她举起了“梦想的望远镜”,看到了将该组织总部迁至中国的可能性。

“We might not be sitting in Washington D.C.,” Ms. Lagarde said at a Center for Global Development event here in which she envisioned what the I.M.F. might look like in 2027.

“届时我们可能就不是坐在华盛顿了,”拉加德在这里的一场全球发展中心(Center for Global Development)活动中说道,她在讲话中展望了2027年的IMF会是怎样的一番模样。

Ms. Lagarde may joke, but her comments reflect a concern that world leaders have about the changing role of the United States in global organizations. The articles of the organization say the headquarters should be the country of the member with the largest economy.

拉加德也许是在开玩笑,但她的话反映了世界领导人的一种关切,他们担心美国在国际机构中的角色将发生改变。IMF章程规定总部应该设于其成员国中的最大经济体内。

When the United States, Britain and other global powers met in Bretton Woods in 1944 near the end of World War II to stabilize the world’s economies, the United States’ overwhelming economic power was reflected in the decision to base both the I.M.F. and the World Bank in its capital. It is a decision that is sometimes questioned given the growth of economies like India and China.

1944年第二次世界大战行将结束之际,美国、英国及其他大国齐聚布雷顿森林,以求稳定世界经济,IMF和世界银行(World Bank)总部皆设于美国首都的决定,反映了这个国家无与伦比的经济实力。而鉴于印度、中国等国的经济增长,这个决定时常遭到质疑。

Beijing has signaled its eagerness to play a greater role in the global economy with the rise of Chinese-backed regional institutions, such as the Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, a rival to the World Bank.

随着由中国支持的地区性机构的崛起,比如与世界银行分庭抗礼的亚洲基础设施投资银行(Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank),北京已经表现出在世界经济中发挥更大作用的意愿。

And since President Trump gained the White House on an anti-globalization platform, pledging to withdraw from the Paris climate change agreement and rewrite longstanding trade agreements, world leaders, including Ms. Lagarde, have closely observed the changing global role of the United States.

特朗普总统凭借反全球化的竞选纲领入主白宫,誓要退出巴黎气候变化协定,重写一些缔结已久的贸易协议,自那以来,包括拉加德在内的世界领导人一直在密切关注美国的全球角色转变。

Speaking to a packed audience in the capital, Ms. Lagarde did play down the impact of the United States pursuing an agenda that diverged from that of the I.M.F.

美国这个国家正在和IMF走向不一样的方向。在其首都的众多听众面前,拉加德的确淡化了美国这种做法的影响。

“The world is changing, that is No. 1,” Ms. Lagarde said, pointing out that emerging and low-income countries now contribute around 60 percent of total GDP and 80 percent of global growth.

“首先,世界在改变,”拉加德说,她指出如今GDP总额的60%左右来自新兴国家和低收入国家,全球增长的80%来自于它们。

“No. 2, one needs to look at the deeds more than the creeds and what is actually being done. Where is money actually being invested?”

“其次,人们应该多看行动,少谈信条,看看实际上在做些什么。什么地方是真的在投资?”

Despite Ms. Lagarde’s comments, analysts point out the United States’ veto power at the I.M.F. gives Washington a crucial role in the institution. The fund’s leadership is careful to keep the White House on its side following every change in administration.

然而分析人士认为,尽管有拉加德的这番话,美国在IMF的否决权让华盛顿依然在这个机构内扮演着关键角色。伴随着美国政府的每一次换届改变,基金组织领导层一直在小心翼翼地保持与白宫的紧密关系。

“There is no doubt she must be deeply concerned by the turn we have taken in Washington but there is no advantage to her in using inflammatory language,” said Benn Steil, a senior fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations.

“我们在华盛顿的转向无疑会让她深为担忧,但是煽动性的言辞对她没什么好处,”对外关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)高级研究员本·斯太尔(Benn Steil)说。

“At the end, she is a servant of the shareholders and of course, one in particular has overwhelming power with the organization, so the best she can do is prod.”

“说到底她是股东的仆人,当然,她是一个在该机构有着无上权威的仆人,因此她最多就是做出一些激励。”

In her remarks on Monday, Ms. Lagarde also discussed the I.M.F.’s latest World Economic Outlook, in which it forecast 3.5 percent growth in the global economy this year, picking up to 3.6 percent in 2018.

在周一的讲话中,拉加德还谈到IMF最新发布的《世界经济展望》(World Economic Outlook),其中预测今年全球经济增长为3.5%,到2018年会增至3.6%。

It revised its forecasts downward for Britain, given the risks around Brexit, and for the United States, given what Ms. Lagarde labeled “less obvious fiscal development and less rapid infrastructure investment than we had initially thought.”

鉴于脱欧的风险,报告下调了对英国的预期,而由于拉加德称美国的“财政发展和基建投资未能达到我们预想的程度”,因此也被下调。

She identified the major medium-term risks to the world economy as inequality, the “backlash” against globalization, international trade and technological breakthroughs.

她认为世界经济中期主要风险是不平等,以及对全球化、世界贸易和技术突破的“抵触”。

She warned of those who feel left behind by globalization — those who feel “there is nothing there for them, as a result of which, populist voices can actually carry the day and prevail over other forces” — a group political analysts have identified as driving Mr. Trump’s win in November.

她提醒人们注意那些感到被全球化遗弃的人——他们觉得“自己从中得不到任何好处,因此民粹主义的声音就开始响亮起来,压过了其他力量”——一些政治分析人士认为,正是这种声音促成了特朗普在去年十一月的胜利。

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