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美俄首脑会谈,普京稳赢不输

更新时间:2017-7-8 11:23:53 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

For Russia, Trump-Putin Meeting Is a Sure Winner
美俄首脑会谈,普京稳赢不输

MOSCOW — With the long-awaited first meeting between President Vladimir Putin and President Donald Trump finally in sight, the Kremlin is hoping at a minimum to inject some clarity into a relationship marred by contradictions, anxiety, scattered recriminations and, on occasion, astonishing bonhomie.

莫斯科——盼望已久的弗拉基米尔·普京总统(Vladimir Putin)和唐纳德·特朗普总统首次会面终于就在眼前了。克里姆林宫希望借此机会至少能对两国关系做出一些澄清,这段关系被蒙上了矛盾、焦虑、广泛的批评,以及偶尔令人惊讶的温情。

“As for the policy of the U.S. administration, we have to understand first what it will involve,” Sergey A. Ryabkov, the deputy foreign minister, told a conference of foreign policy experts from both countries in Moscow last week. “This is what we are actually trying to do, in an utmost active manner, right now.”

“至于美国政府的政策,我们首先必须了解它会涉及哪些方面,”俄罗斯副外交部长谢尔盖·A·亚布科夫(Sergei A. Ryabkov)上周在莫斯科的一个有两国外交政策专家参与的会议上说。“这实际上是我们现在正在非常努力去做的事情。”

Whatever the outcome of the encounter Friday — which although on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit meeting of world leaders in Hamburg, Germany, is expected to overshadow it — the Kremlin is betting that Putin can stage manage the event so that he comes out looking like the stronger party.

不管周五的会晤结果如何——虽然是在德国汉堡举行的二十国集团领导人峰会的场外进行,但预计它会盖过峰会的风头——克里姆林宫认为,普京能够掌控会晤,让自己看似更强的一方。

If nothing much emerges from the meeting, analysts said, the Kremlin can repeat the standard Russian line that Trump is weak, hamstrung by domestic politics.

分析人士表示,如果会晤没有产生很多成果,克里姆林宫可能会重复标准的俄罗斯论调,称特朗普软弱,被国内政治力量束缚。

But if Trump agrees to work with Putin despite the litany of Russian transgressions beginning with the annexation of Crimea and ending with its interference in the 2016 presidential election, he will also look weak while Putin can claim that he reconstructed the relationship.

但是,如果特朗普同意与普京合作,不理会俄罗斯的一连串侵犯——从吞并克里米亚到干预2016年美国总统大选——他也会看起来很软弱,而普京则可以声称自己重建了俄美关系。

“It is a win-win situation for Putin,” said Andrei V. Kolesnikov, a political analyst at the Carnegie Moscow Center.

“对普京来说,这是一个双赢的状况,”卡内基莫斯科中心(Carnegie Moscow Center)的政治分析师安德烈·V·科列斯尼科夫(Andrei V. Kolesnikov)说。

Putin nevertheless does face some hurdles. First and foremost, it is unclear what he has to offer in exchange for U.S. cooperation — other than collaboration in Syria and great sympathy for Trump’s plight at the hands of what Russia refers to as the American “deep state,” including the news media.

不过,普京的确也面临着一些障碍。首先,目前尚不清楚他会为了换取美国的合作做出哪些让步——除了在叙利亚的合作,以及对在他们看来饱受美国“深暗势力”(deep state)折磨的特朗普表示同情。在他们看来,那股势力包括新闻媒体。

There is some speculation that Trump might be glibly walking into a trap where he will be played by the Russian leader. On the American side, Trump’s national security adviser, Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, said last week that there was “no specific agenda — it’s really going to be whatever the president wants to talk about.”

也有人猜测,特朗普可能很容易掉入一个陷阱,被俄罗斯总统戏耍。在美国方面,特朗普的国家安全顾问H·R·麦克马斯特(H.R. McMaster)将军上周表示,“没有具体的议程——确实就是总统想说什么就说什么。”

By contrast, Putin will surely show up with finely honed talking points designed to forge closer cooperation and to reaffirm Russia’s old Soviet role as the equal of the United States in umpiring global affairs.

相比之下,普京肯定会带着精心打磨的谈话要点,努力达成更密切的合作,重申俄罗斯在仲裁国际事务中与美国旗鼓相当的位置,就像苏联那样。

“Putin will try to exploit that advantage,” said Vladimir Frolov, a prominent columnist who writes frequently on foreign policy. Putin has made it his mission to curb what he considers the dangerous impulse of all U.S. presidents, including Trump, to interfere globally without consulting other powers.

“普京会努力利用那个优势,”经常就外交政策撰写文章的著名专栏作家弗拉基米尔·弗罗洛(Vladimir Frolov)说。普京认为,他的职责是抑制来自美国总统的一切在他看来存在危险的念头,并在不与其他大国磋商的情况下干预全球事务,这是针对所有美国总统的,包括特朗普。

Some in the United States, and in the West in general, view Putin with new distrust given the sense that Russia has abandoned cooperation in favor of actively working to undermine Western alliances and open, democratic systems.

美国以及整个西方社会的某些人对普京产生了新的不信任,因为感觉俄罗斯放弃了合作,转而努力破坏西方同盟以及开放、民主的政治体系。

Yet, Trump has shown little stomach for condemning Russia, and both presidents will most likely want to avoid as much as possible the topic of Russian meddling in the 2016 election.

不过,特朗普对谴责俄罗斯没有任何兴趣,两位总统很可能会尽量避免谈论俄罗斯干预2016年美国大选的话题。

The Kremlin has watched, chagrined, as the Trump administration rolled back various positions stated during the campaign — his questioning of the viability of NATO, for example, or his expressions of sympathy for the Russian position on Crimea.

克里姆林宫失望地看到,特朗普政府收回了竞选期间表达的很多立场,比如他对北约存在必要性的质疑,或者他对俄罗斯的克里米亚政策的认可。

“The Kremlin is astonished that the president cannot behave like a real president, like ours, so what can they do in this situation?” Kolesnikov asked.

“克里姆林宫惊讶地发现,美国总统无法像一位真正的总统那样行事,比如我们的总统那样,所以在这种情况下,他们能做什么呢?”科列斯尼科夫问道。

Commentary in the official Russian media suggested that Moscow was baffled by the lack of a confirmed agenda, while various senior officials and the Kremlin press service have listed possible talking points that cover virtually every major international issue.

俄罗斯官方媒体的评论文章表明,莫斯科为美国缺乏确定的日程感到迷惑,而多位俄罗斯高级官员以及克里姆林宫的新闻机构已经列出了可能的谈话要点,它们几乎覆盖所有的主要国际问题。

Syria, where there has been a measure of uneasy military coordination, is of “particular importance,” according to the Kremlin list.

根据克里姆林宫的清单,叙利亚“尤为重要”,那里已经在展开一些忐忑的军事合作。

Asked last month about possible outcomes from meeting Trump, Putin said, “On the Syrian problem and the Middle East in general, it is clear to all that no progress will be made without joint constructive work.”

上个月,当被问及与特朗普会晤可能产生的成果时,普京表示,“大家都明白,在叙利亚问题和整个中东问题上,如果没有协同的建设性努力,就无法取得任何进展。”

Cooperation from Washington on Russia’s plan to create “deconfliction zones” inside Syria would go a long way toward reviving Russia’s role as a key power in the Middle East. While both leaders have expressed an interest in working together on counterterrorism, the United States still wants to see President Bashar Assad step down.

俄罗斯在叙利亚境内设立“去冲突区”的计划得到了华盛顿的合作,该计划将特别有助于复兴俄罗斯作为中东主要力量的角色。虽然两位领导人表达了在共同打击恐怖主义方面的兴趣,但美国依然想要看到巴沙尔·阿萨德总统(Bashar Assad)下台。

Another main item on the Russian agenda will be what it lumps together as “strategic stability,” including nuclear weapons. Russia wants the United States to remove the new missile defense shield based in Romania and Poland. In return, analysts said, Putin might respond to accusations about a new Russian missile that the United States says violates the historic 1987 treaty on limiting intermediate-range nuclear weapons.

俄罗斯日程上的另一个主要项目将是被统称为“战略稳定”的话题,包括核武器。俄罗斯想让美国移除在罗马尼亚和波兰部署的新导弹防御系统。分析人士表示,作为回报,普京可能会回应关于一种俄罗斯新型导弹的谴责,美国称那种导弹违背了1987年关于限制中程核武器的历史性条约。

Economic sanctions applied after the Ukraine crisis could come up, since Russia is struggling to revive its economy in the face of low oil prices and an uneven investment climate. In terms of Ukraine, Dmitry S. Peskov, Putin’s spokesman, said Wednesday that the meeting was too short to discuss Ukraine with the needed detail.

乌克兰危机后实施的经济制裁也可能被提及,因为面对低油价和不均衡的投资气候,俄罗斯正在努力振兴自己的经济。普京的发言人迪米特里·S·佩斯科夫(Dmitry S. Peskov)周三表示,这次会晤的时间太短,不够谈论乌克兰问题中的必要细节。

On Tuesday, Russia and China announced a joint effort to address the North Korea crisis, with the first step an agreement by the United States and South Korea to freeze military maneuvers in exchange for Pyongyang freezing its nuclear missile program. Putin is deemed likely to seek Trump’s endorsement of the deal.

周二,俄罗斯和中国宣布了一项解决朝鲜危机的共同努力,第一步是达成一个协议,美国和韩国停止军事演习,作为交换,平壤停止核导弹计划。外界认为普京很可能会寻求特朗普对此协议的支持。

But that poses problems for the U.S. military, potentially limiting its freedom of movement in the Pacific and possibly eroding the U.S.-South Korean deterrent.

但那会给美军带来问题,可能会限制它在太平洋活动的自由,损害美韩的威慑力。

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