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正视朝鲜问题的现实

更新时间:2017-7-6 20:20:53 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Accepting North Korean Realities
正视朝鲜问题的现实

BEIJING — North Korea is not a problem that can be solved. As much as the West may engage in wishful thinking about a revolution, the Kim family regime has survived far longer than almost anyone predicted. Even today, it shows no signs of collapsing, and the North Koreans show no signs of rebelling en masse.

北京——朝鲜不是一个能被解决的问题。尽管西方可能很希望出现一场革命,但金氏家族的政权存活的时间几乎比所有人预料的都长很多。甚至直到现在,它都没有任何崩溃的迹象,朝鲜人也没有表现出任何集体反抗的迹象。

Does anyone actually think that with another round of sanctions the country’s leader, Kim Jong-un, will suddenly give up power and North Koreans will all become liberal democrats? Or that somehow Washington could brandish enough aircraft carriers that the North Korean military and political establishment will surrender?

真有人认为,再来一轮制裁,该国领袖金正恩(Kim Jong-un)就会突然放弃权力,朝鲜人就会都变成自由主义民主派吗?或者认为不知怎么,华盛顿能够派出足够的航空母舰,朝鲜的军方和政权会因此屈服?

The widespread mocking of Kim Jong-un as a freakish buffoon is a sign of our misguided approach. Viewing him as a joke is a mistake not because it’s rude, but because it contributes to a dangerous underestimation of his power. Mr. Kim has managed to rule for almost six years as a brutal totalitarian dictator. He may be many things, but he is not a lightweight. Leaders do not survive under such circumstances without being superb politicians.

将金正恩描绘成怪异小丑的广泛嘲弄是我们错误方式的一个迹象。将他视为笑话是一个错误,不是因为这很粗鲁,而是因为它危险地低估了他的力量。金正恩作为残酷的极权独裁者,已经统治了近六年时间。他可能有很多问题,但他绝不是一个轻量级对手。能在这样的环境中生存下来的领袖都是卓越的政治家。

Sanctions and threats haven’t worked in the past, and more of the same most certainly will not work in the future. As his father and grandfather did, Mr. Kim meets pressure with pressure. It is no surprise that a surge in missile tests came as the Trump administration has made threats about sending aircraft carriers and potential pre-emptive strikes. North Korea isn’t unpredictable; rather, it is the most predictable country on earth.

制裁和威胁在过去没起作用,更多的此类措施很有可能在将来也不会起作用。和他的父亲与祖父一样,金正恩用压力回应压力。特朗普政府威胁派出航空母舰和可能进行先发制人的攻击后,朝鲜导弹试验的次数猛增,这并不令人意外。朝鲜并不是不可预测,相反,它是世界上最可预测的国家。

The North Koreans are also very calculating. By aiming test missiles at Japan, Pyongyang is sending a clear signal: Take a preventive shot at our missile sites, and we will take a shot at Japan, most likely at the roughly 50,000 American military personnel stationed at United States bases there. It would not be the start of a second Korean War, but rather a poke for a poke. Would the United States really want to up the ante a second time? Would Japan, China and South Korea want to?

朝鲜人也很会算计。平壤将导弹试验的目标对准日本,释放了一个明确的信号:如果对我们的导弹试验场地发起预防性攻击,我们就会攻击日本,极有可能是针对驻扎在美军基地上的约5万名美军。它不会是第二次朝鲜战争的开始,而是以牙还牙。美国真的想再次提高赌注吗?日本、中国和韩国想吗?

Nuclear weapons are almost useless for coercion, but they are great for deterrence. They are designed to ensure the survival of the country and the regime. The more pressure the United States puts on the North Koreans, the more likely they are to continue perfecting their missiles and nuclear weapons. In short, deterrence works, and neither North Korea nor the rest of the world is in danger of forgetting that.

核武器在胁迫方面几乎毫无作用,但它有着很好的威慑作用。它的目的是确保国家和政权的存续。美国给朝鲜施加的压力越大,朝鲜就越有可能继续完善自己的导弹和核武器。简而言之,威慑有用,朝鲜和世界其他国家都不会忘记这一点。

Twenty years ago, there might have been an opportunity for the two sides to reach a deal. But both Washington and Pyongyang have had years of evidence to back their claims that the other side will never live up to its word. This is a classic paradox: Actions one side takes to make itself safer prompt a response by its adversary, making both sides less safe.

20年前,双方可能有机会达成协议。但华盛顿和平壤在多年的交往中已经认定,对方永远不会遵守承诺。这是一个经典的矛盾:一方为让自己更安全而采取的行动会引发对手的反应,最终导致双方都更不安全。

Given this pessimistic perspective, what is the way forward?

从这个悲观的角度考虑,前进的道路是什么呢?

The good news is that deterrence is effective both ways. North Korea poses almost no threat to South Korea as long as the United States-South Korea alliance remains ironclad. Kim Jong-un may be many things, but he is not suicidal. Deterrence will continue to work.

好消息是威慑对双方都是有效的。只要美国和韩国的同盟依旧坚不可摧,那么朝鲜就几乎无法对韩国产生任何威胁。金正恩可能有很多想法,但他绝不想自我毁灭。威慑将会继续发挥作用。

But the North Korean problem is far bigger than its nuclear program. The country is experiencing a humanitarian disaster. The number of people trying to flee the country could soar in a crisis. It’s also an economic and environmental black hole that limits trade and travel throughout Northeast Asia. While the political challenges that come with the nuclear weapons program are unavoidable, the West should continue putting effort into solving these other problems.

不过,朝鲜问题要比其核计划大得多。这个国家正在经历人道主义灾难。如果发生危机,试图逃离这个国家的人数会暴涨。它也是一个经济和环境上的黑洞,限制着整个东北亚的贸易和旅行。虽然核武器计划造成的政治挑战不可避免,但西方国家应该继续努力解决其他这些问题。

Politicians in the United States and South Korea may not want to admit that the North Korean nuclear arsenal is a reality, but Washington has a history of coming around. The United States spent more than a decade ignoring the situation in South Asia before finally acknowledging that India and Pakistan had nuclear weapons.

美国和韩国的政治人士可能不想承认,朝鲜的核武库已经是个现实,但华盛顿曾经幡然醒悟过。美国有十多年的时间无视南亚的情况,直到最终承认,印度和巴基斯坦拥有核武器。

North Korea is in a class of its own. But we ignore that it is a real country with a functioning government at our peril. For the United States, making steady progress in alleviating the humanitarian and economic problems, while maintaining strong deterrence against the nuclear program, is the only way forward.

朝鲜是个特例。但它是一个真正的国家,有一个正常运行的政府,忽视这一点只会为我们带来损害。对美国来说,在缓解人道主义和经济问题方面取得不断进步,同时保持对核项目的强大威慑,是唯一的出路。

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