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军事打击朝鲜的灾难性后果让美国投鼠忌器

更新时间:2017-7-6 19:40:39 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

In North Korea, ‘Surgical Strike’ Could Spin Into ‘Worst Kind of Fighting’
军事打击朝鲜的灾难性后果让美国投鼠忌器

SEOUL, South Korea — The standoff over North Korea’s nuclear program has long been shaped by the view that the United States has no viable military option to destroy it. Any attempt to do so, many say, would provoke a brutal counterattack against South Korea too bloody and damaging to risk.

韩国首尔——一直以来,因朝鲜核计划而起的对峙都有一个根本前提,即美国找不到一个可行的军事方案来摧毁该计划。很多人认为,任何尝试都会引发一场针对韩国的残酷反击,其血腥和损害程度意味着,冒险是不值的。

That remains a major constraint on the Trump administration’s response even as North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong Un, approaches his goal of a nuclear arsenal capable of striking the United States. On Tuesday, the North appeared to cross a new threshold, testing a weapon that it described as an intercontinental ballistic missile and that analysts said could potentially hit Alaska.

如今特朗普政府的回应依然掣肘于此,尽管朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong Un)正步步逼近他的目标——建起可以远及美国的核武打击能力。周二,朝鲜似乎又跨越了一道槛,测试了一种被他们称为洲际弹道导弹的武器,分析人士称该武器也许有能力打到阿拉斯加。

Over the years, as it does for potential crises around the world, the Pentagon has drafted and refined multiple war plans, including an enormous retaliatory invasion and limited pre-emptive attacks, and it holds annual military exercises with South Korean forces based on them.

多年来,五角大楼就此制定并完善了多套战争方案,这是它在面对世界各地潜在危机时的惯常做法,这些方案中有大规模的报复性入侵,也有局部的先发制人攻击,并每年基于这些方案与韩国进行联合军事演习。

On Wednesday, the Trump administration made a point of threatening a military response. Gen. Vincent K. Brooks, commander of the American forces that conducted a missile exercise with South Korea, said the United States had chosen “self-restraint” with the North. Nikki R. Haley, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, said her country’s “considerable military forces” were an option. “We will use them if we must, but we prefer not to have to go in that direction,” she told the Security Council.

周三,特朗普政府对发出军事威胁一事做出解释。作为刚刚与韩国进行了一场联合导弹演习的美国部队的指挥官,文森特·K·布鲁克斯上将(Vincent K. Brooks)称美国在应对朝鲜的过程中选择了“克制”。美国驻联合国大使尼基·R·黑利(Nikki R. Haley)说,她的国家拥有“相当强大的军事力量”,可以作为一个选项。“万不得已之下我们是会使用这些力量的,但我们倾向于不往那个方向走,”她对联合国安理会表示。

But the military options are more grim than ever.

但是武力解决方案的严酷程度是空前的。

Even the most limited strike risks staggering casualties, because North Korea could retaliate with the thousands of artillery pieces it has positioned along its border with the South. Though the arsenal is of limited range and could be destroyed in days, the U.S. defense secretary, Jim Mattis, recently warned that if North Korea used it, it “would be probably the worst kind of fighting in most people’s lifetimes.”

甚至连最有限的打击都可能造成惊人的人员伤亡,因为朝鲜可能会用它布置在朝韩边境的成千上万门火炮进行报复。虽然那些火炮的射程有限,能在数日内被摧毁,但美国国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)前不久警告称,如果朝鲜那样做,它“很可能会成为很多人一生中最残酷的战斗”。

Beyond that, there is no historical precedent for a military attack aimed at destroying a country’s nuclear arsenal.

除此之外,历史上还没有出现过以摧毁一个国家核武库为目的的军事打击。

The last time the United States is known to have seriously considered attacking the North was in 1994, more than a decade before its first nuclear test. The defense secretary at the time, William J. Perry, asked the Pentagon to prepare plans for a “surgical strike” on a nuclear reactor, but he backed off after concluding it would set off warfare that could leave hundreds of thousands dead.

美国上一次认真考虑攻击朝鲜是在1994年,那是在朝鲜第一次核试验的十多年前。时任国防部长威廉·J·佩里(William J. Perry)让五角大楼准备对一个核反应堆进行“精准打击”的计划,但他后来放弃了,因为他认为,那会引发导致数十万人死亡的战事。

The stakes are even higher now. U.S. officials believe North Korea has built as many as a dozen nuclear bombs — perhaps many more — and can mount them on missiles capable of hitting much of Japan and South Korea.

现在的风险更大。美国官员认为,朝鲜制造了十几枚核弹——可能还有很多——那些核弹能安装在射程覆盖日本和韩国大部分地区的导弹上。

Earlier in his term, Trump tried to change the dynamics of the crisis by forcing the North and its main economic benefactor, China, to reconsider Washington’s willingness to start a war. He spoke bluntly about the possibility of a “major, major conflict” on the Korean Peninsula,ordered warships into nearby waters and vowed to “solve” the nuclear problem.

特朗普在上任初期,试图通过迫使朝鲜和它的主要经济资助者中国重新考虑华盛顿发起战争的意愿来改变这场危机的力量对比。他直率地谈论朝鲜半岛发生“重大冲突”的可能性,命令军舰前往附近水域,发誓“解决”核武器问题。

But Trump has backed off considerably in recent weeks, emphasizing efforts to pressure China to rein in Kim with sanctions instead.

但近几周,特朗普明显退让,转而强调迫使中国通过制裁来遏制金正恩的努力。

After all, a pre-emptive U.S. attack would very likely fail to wipe out North Korea’s arsenal, because some of the North’s facilities are deep in mountain caves or underground and many of its missiles are hidden on mobile launchers.

毕竟,美国先发制人的打击很可能无法彻底摧毁朝鲜的武器库,因为朝鲜的一些设施藏在山洞深处或者地下,很多导弹藏在移动的发射车上。

The North has warned that it would immediately retaliate by launching nuclear missiles. But predicting how Kim would actually respond to a limited attack is an exercise in strategic game theory, with many analysts arguing that he would refrain from immediately going nuclear or using his stockpile of chemical and biological weapons to avoid provoking a nuclear response from the United States.

朝鲜曾警告称,它会立刻报复,发射核导弹。但是,预测金正恩实际上会对有限打击做何反应只是战略博弈论上的判断,很多分析人士认为,为了避免美国用核武器反击,他不会立刻使用核武器或生化武器。

Opening Salvos

拉开序幕的炮火

North and South Korea, separated by the world’s most heavily armed border, have had more than half a century to prepare for a resumption of the war that was suspended in 1953. While the North’s weaponry is less advanced, the South suffers a distinct geographical disadvantage: Nearly half its population lives within 50 miles of the Demilitarized Zone, including the 10 million people in Seoul, its capital.

朝鲜和韩国被世界上有着最多武器的边境分开,半个多世纪以来,他们一直在为1953年中止的战争重新开启做准备。虽然朝鲜的武器相对落后,但韩国在地理上有明显的劣势:近半数的人口住在非军事区50英里内的区域,包括拥有一千万人口的首都首尔。

“You have this massive agglomeration of everything that is important in South Korea — government, business and the huge population — and all of it is in this gigantic megalopolis that starts 30 miles from the border and ends 70 miles from the border,” said Robert E. Kelly, a professor of political science at Pusan National University in South Korea. “In terms of national security, it’s just nuts.”

“对韩国来说非常重要的一切都聚集在这里——政府、企业和大量的人口——都在这个庞大的都市里,它在离边境30英里至70英里之间,”韩国釜山国立大学(Pusan National University)的政治学教授罗伯特·E·克利(Robert E. Kelly)说。“从国家安全的角度讲,这很糟糕。”

North Korea has positioned as many as 8,000 artillery cannons and rocket launchers on its side of the Demilitarized Zone, analysts say, an arsenal capable of raining up to 300,000 rounds on the South in the first hour of a counterattack. That means it can inflict tremendous damage without resorting to weapons of mass destruction.

分析人士称,朝鲜在非军事区自己这一边布置了8000个火炮和火箭发射车,在反击的第一个小时里,这些武器能够对韩国发射30万枚炮弹与火箭弹。那意味着,它不必借助大规模杀伤性武器就能造成巨大损害。

Kim could order a limited response, by hitting a base near the Demilitarized Zone, for example, and then pausing before doing more. But most analysts expect the North would escalate quickly if attacked, to inflict as much damage as possible in case the United States and South Korea were preparing an invasion.

金正恩可能会下令进行有限反击,比如攻击军事区附近的一个基地,然后暂停。但大多数分析人士预计,朝鲜如果遭到攻击,会立刻升级战争,尽可能地造成更多伤害,以防美国和韩国在准备入侵。

“North Korea knows it is the end game and will not go down without a fight,” said Jeffrey W. Hornung of the RAND Corp., adding: “I think it is going to be a barrage.”

“朝鲜知道这是终极对决,不会束手就擒,”兰德公司(RAND Corp.)的杰弗里·W·贺南(Jeffrey W. Hornung)说。他还说,“我认为会是连续猛攻。”

The North has often threatened to turn Seoul into a “sea of fire,” but the vast majority of its artillery has a range of 3 to 6 miles and cannot reach the city, analysts say.

分析人士表示,朝鲜经常威胁要把首尔变成一片“火海”,但它的火炮的大部分射程是3至6英里,无法射中这座城市。

The North has deployed at least three systems, though, that can reach the Seoul metropolitan area: Koksan 170 millimeter guns and 240 millimeter multiple-rocket launchers capable of hitting the northern suburbs and parts of the city, and 300 millimeter multiple-rocket launchers, which may be able to hit targets beyond Seoul.

不过,朝鲜至少部署了三套能够打到首尔都市区的系统:谷山(Koksan)170毫米火炮;240毫米多管火箭发射器,它能击中首尔的北部郊区和部分城区;以及300毫米多管火箭发射器,它也许能击中首尔以南的目标。

A study published by the Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability in 2012 concluded that the initial hours of an artillery barrage by the North focused on military targets would result in nearly 3,000 fatalities, while one targeting civilians would kill nearly 30,000 people.

诺蒂勒斯安全与可持续发展研究所(Nautilus Institute for Security and Sustainability)2012年发表的一项研究得出的结论是:朝鲜一旦发起炮击,并集中攻击军事目标,在最初几个小时内会导致近3000人丧生,如果以平民为目标,则会夺走近3万人的性命。

The North could compound the damage by also firing ballistic missiles at Seoul. But Joseph S. Bermudez Jr., a North Korea expert at AllSource Analysis, a defense intelligence consultancy, said it was more likely to use missiles to target military installations, including U.S. bases in Japan.

朝鲜还可以通过向首尔发射弹道导弹来造成更大损失。但国防情报咨询机构AllSource Analysis的朝鲜问题专家小约瑟夫·S·贝穆德斯(Joseph S. Bermudez Jr)表示,朝鲜更有可能用导弹袭击军事设施,包括美国设在日本的基地。

The Defense

相关防御

U.S. and South Korean forces could be put on alert and bracing for retaliation before any attempt to knock out North Korea’s nuclear program. But there is little they can do to defend Seoul against a barrage of artillery.

采取任何旨在摧毁朝鲜核项目的行动之前,美国和韩国的部队都会严阵以待,准备好应对朝鲜的报复。但他们在防止首尔受到炮击方面能做的并不多。

The South can intercept some ballistic missiles, with the recently installed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, as well as Patriot and Hawk systems. But it does not have anything like Israel’s Iron Dome that can destroy incoming artillery shells and rockets, which fly at lower altitudes.

韩国可以用新近部署的“末段高空区域防御系统”( Terminal High Altitude Area Defense,简称“萨德”[Thaad]),以及“爱国者”(Patriot)和“鹰式”(Hawk)系统,拦截一些弹道导弹。但它没有任何类似以色列的“铁穹”(Iron Dome)那样的系统,后者可以摧毁来袭的飞行高度较低的炮弹和火箭弹。

Instead, South Korean and American troops would employ traditional “counterbattery” tactics — using radar and other techniques to determine the location of the North’s guns when they are moved out of their bunkers and fired, and then using rockets and airstrikes to knock them out.

美国和韩国的部队会采取传统的“反炮兵战”策略——在朝鲜从地堡中运出武器并开火之际,用雷达以及其他技术手段判定火力点,随后用火箭弹和空袭将其捣毁。

David Maxwell, associate director for the Center for Security Studies at Georgetown University and a veteran of five tours in South Korea with the U.S. Army, said the Pentagon was constantly upgrading its counterbattery capabilities. But he added, “There is no silver bullet solution that can defeat North Korean fire before they inflict significant damage on Seoul and South Korea.”

乔治城大学(Georgetown University)安全研究中心副主任戴维·马克斯韦尔(David Maxwell),是一名曾随美国陆军五度前往韩国的退伍军人,他说五角大楼正不断提高自己的“反炮兵战”能力。但他补充说,“并没有能在朝鲜人给首尔和韩国造成重大损失之前击败他们的简单有效的方法。”

Civilian Preparation

针对民众的准备

All things considered, analysts say, it could take American and South Korean forces three to four days to overwhelm North Korea’s artillery.

分析人士认为,考虑到一切情况,美韩军队可能需要三四天时间来击败朝鲜炮兵。

How much damage North Korea inflicts in that time depends in part on South Korea’s ability to get people to safety quickly. As more of the North’s guns are destroyed and people take cover, the casualty rate would fall with each hour.

朝鲜届时能造成多大损害,在很大程度上取决于韩国迅速将人们转移到安全地点的能力。随着越来越多的朝鲜火炮遭到摧毁,以及越来越多的韩国人得到掩护,伤亡率每小时都会下降。

The Nautilus Institute study projects 60,000 fatalities in the first full day of a surprise artillery attack on military targets around Seoul, the majority in the first three hours. Casualty estimates for an attack on the civilian population are much higher, with some studies projecting more than 300,000 dead in the opening days.

诺蒂勒斯安全与可持续发展研究所的研究预测,朝鲜对首尔周边地区的军事目标发起突击炮击的24小时内,会有6万人死亡,主要发生在前三个小时之内。若朝鲜对平民发动攻击,预计伤亡还要高得多,一些研究估计最初几天内会有30多万人死亡。

The Seoul metropolitan government says there are nearly 3,300 bomb shelters in the city, enough to accommodate all 10 million of its residents. In Gyeonggi province, which surrounds the capital like a doughnut, the provincial government counts about 3,700 shelters. Many train stations in the region double as shelters, and most large buildings have underground parking garages where people fleeing artillery attacks can seek cover.

首尔市政府表示,该市有近3300个防空洞,足以容纳其全部1000万居民。京畿道省像甜甜圈一样环绕着首都,其省政府约有3700个庇护所。这一地区的许多火车站都可以兼做庇护所,大多数大型建筑物都有地下停车库,人员可以在那里寻求庇护,逃离炮火。

But critics say local authorities are unprepared for the chaos an artillery attack would cause and that the public is nonchalant about the prospect of war.

但批评人士认为,地方当局没有做好准备去应对炮火攻击将会带来的混乱,而公众则对于战争的前景显得漠不关心。

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