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说说天气预报

更新时间:2017-7-6 10:20:18 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

A word about the weather report.

说说天气预报。

No matter where you are, it seems everyone complains about inaccurate forecasts.

不管你在哪里,似乎每个人都抱怨过天气预报不准。

Faulty predictions have been ridiculed and even blamed for economic damage.

人们嘲弄出错的预测,甚至将经济损失也归咎于它。

In 1954, The Times reported that meteorologists were asking the public for a “better understanding of their complex work.”

1954年,时报报道了气象学家呼吁公众“更好地理解他们复杂的工作”。

“The Weatherman is tired of being the butt of a parade of stale jokes,” the article read.

报道中说,“天气预报员受够了成为一大堆老掉牙笑话的笑柄”。

Happily, thanks to satellites and ever more advanced data analysis, short-term predictions of three to five days have become remarkably accurate, said Henry Fountain, a Times reporter focused on climate change and the environment.

专门报道气候变化和环境的时报记者亨利·方丹(Henry Fountain)说,令人高兴的是,多亏了卫星和越来越先进的数据分析,三至五天的短期天气预报已经变得非常准确。

He cautions, however, that longer-term forecasting, of several weeks to several months, remains more problematic.

然而,他也告诫称,几周至几个月的长期预报依然很成问题。

These subseasonal to seasonal forecasts, as they are called, are critical for economies worldwide, helping farmers in Australia decide how much irrigation water they’ll need, for example, or international shippers plan their routes. They also affect military and disaster planning.

这些叫做次季节和季节性的预报对世界经济至关重要,比如能帮助澳大利亚的农民决定他们需要多少水来灌溉,或有助于国际航运商规划路线。预报同样影响着军事及灾害应对计划。

European forecasts are often considered better than most, in part because European governments often devote more resources to them, including costly computer time.

人们通常认为欧洲的天气预报要好于其他地区,部分是因为欧洲政府常常向他们投入更多资源,包括昂贵的计算机时间。

But the U.S. is trying to catch up. The government this spring enacted a law that prioritizes research to improve longer-term modeling.

但美国也在努力迎头赶上。今年春季,政府颁布了一项法律,将提升长期天气模型的研究摆在了首要位置。

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