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更新时间:2017-7-4 18:18:20 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Tokyo Voters’ Rebuke Signals Doubt About Shinzo Abe’s Future

TOKYO — As recently as this spring, Shinzo Abe looked as if he was on track to become Japan’s longest-serving prime minister, no small feat in a country where the leadership sometimes seems to be equipped with a revolving door.


But a local election in Tokyo has put Abe’s longevity in doubt. Voters for the capital’s metropolitan assembly on Sunday resoundingly rejected candidates from Abe’s party, the Liberal Democrats, while electing all but one of 50 fielded by an upstart party founded by Tokyo’s popular governor, Yuriko Koike.

但是在东京都举行的这次地方议会选举,让人怀疑安倍晋三还能在首相的位置上坐多久。周日,东京都选民狂踩安倍晋三所在的自民党的候选人,而支持东京都人气高涨的知事小池百合子(Yuriko Koike)创立的一个新党派,在该党50位候选人中,有49人当选。

The victory for Tomin First, the party Koike established in January, was widely seen as a referendum on Abe as much as a vote of confidence in Koike.

“都民第一之会”(Tomin First)是小池百合子今年1月才组建的党派,它的这次胜利被广泛视为对安倍晋三的公民复决投票和对小池百合子的信任投票。

For several months, Abe, who has been in office since 2012, has been dogged by influence-peddling scandals, as well as repeated bumbling by some members of his Cabinet. He has also drawn criticism for pushing through a legislative vote on an anti-conspiracy bill that many said he had not sufficiently explained. As the prime minister campaigned for his party in Tokyo last Friday, a scrum of protesters shouted, “Abe, resign!”


In brief comments to reporters on Monday, Abe appeared contrite, calling the Tokyo results — in which his party captured less than a fifth of the 127 assembly seats — a “very severe judgment” on his administration.


“This is the biggest crisis and the first major setback for Abe,” said Atsuo Ito, a political analyst in Tokyo.

东京政治分析人士井户敦夫(Atsuo Ito,音译)表示:“这是安倍晋三最大的危机,也是他的第一个重大挫折。”

Until recently, Abe and his party behaved with an air of invincibility, shored up by their two-thirds majority in both houses of Parliament. But public frustration with Abe has grown. He has repeatedly denied involvement in two corruption scandals, in which his administration is accused of providing preferential treatment to schools operated by allies of Abe, and he has shielded his defense minister, Tomomi Inada, from criticism of her competence.

直到不久之前,安倍晋三及其政党还是一副所向披靡的样子,他们席卷了议会两院三分之二的多数席位。但公众开始对安倍晋三感到失望。他一再否认参与了两宗腐败丑闻,有人指责他的行政当局向其盟友经营的学校提供优待,而且他还保护防卫大臣稻田朋美(Tomomi Inada)免遭能力不足的批评。

Jiro Yamaguchi, a professor of political science at Hosei University, said Abe’s “arrogant attitude” had “made people quite anxious.”

法政大学(Hosei University)政治学教授山口二郎(Jiro Yamaguchi)表示,安倍晋三的“傲慢态度”“让人相当焦虑”。

If Abe’s support has been strong in recent years, it may have been in part because voters saw few alternatives. Nationally, the public is wary of the leading opposition, the Democratic Party, which is seen as having failed to deliver during more than three years in power before Abe. The party won just five seats in the Tokyo assembly election.


But Koike’s new party provided a fresh option, at least in the capital.


“I just couldn’t vote for them,” said Kayo Mochizuki, 60, a Tokyo resident, referring to the Liberal Democrats. Mochizuki, who voted for a Tomin First candidate, suggested that problems like Abe’s were “what happens if someone keeps power for a long time.”

“我反正不能把票投给他们。”60岁的东京居民望月佳代(Kayo Mochizuki,音译)提到自民党人时说。望月佳代投票给“都民第一之会”候选人,还说安倍晋三的问题是“如果一个人掌权时间很长就会这样”。

According to exit polls by NHK, the public broadcaster, 43 percent of voters in the Tokyo election said they supported the Abe Cabinet. In the spring, the Cabinet had a 60 percent approval rating in national polls.


It is unclear whether public sentiment in Tokyo will translate into national support for Koike, who is widely believed to have ambitions to become Japan’s first female prime minister. Koike was a member of the Liberal Democratic Party but ran for governor as an independent after the party declined to back her; the party accepted her resignation on Monday.


Most analysts said Koike did not expect to challenge Abe for his job, but perhaps hoped to be his successor. After Sunday’s election, she said she would resign as head of Tomin First to focus on her role as governor.


“There’s still the question of what exactly is her message to a national audience — is it just, ‘I’m fresh, I’m new?'” said Tobias Harris, a Japan analyst at Teneo Intelligence, a political risk consultancy based in New York. “Right now there is a ceiling.” He said that Koike’s “routine plays well in Tokyo” but added that “it is not an easy path to national relevance.”

纽约咨询公司Teneo Intelligence的日本分析师托比阿斯·哈里斯(Tobias Harris)表示:“对于全国受众而言,她传达的信息究竟是什么还很难说——只是‘我是新来的,是新人’吗?现在她面临着一个天花板。”他说小池百合子“在东京的势头很劲”,但是“要拥有全国性的声势,会不容易”。

For now, Abe may face bigger challenges within his own party. “It’s not her that’s the threat,” said Michael Thomas Cucek, an adjunct professor at Waseda University and Temple University in Tokyo. “It’s his other rivals in the party who can take this loss and beat him with it.”

就目前来说,安倍晋三在自己的党内面临的挑战可能更大。早稻田大学(Waseda University)和东京天普大学日本分校(Temple University in Tokyo)的客座教授迈克尔·托马斯·库切克(Michael Thomas Cucek)说:“威胁不是她,而是他的对手,他们可以利用这次失败来打击他。”

Potential contenders within the Liberal Democrats include Shigeru Ishiba, a legislator and former Cabinet minister who called the Tokyo election a “historic defeat,” and Foreign Minister Fumio Kishida, who has been quietly waiting in the wings to succeed Abe.

自民党内的潜在竞争者包括立法委员、前内阁大臣石破茂( Shigeru Ishiba),他说东京都这次选举是“历史性的失败”。还有外相岸田文雄(Fumio Kishida),他一直在不声不响地等待着接替安倍晋三。

Abe’s term runs until the end of 2018. But in March, the party voted to change its rules to let a leader serve three consecutive terms, setting the stage for Abe to govern until 2021.


If his popularity continues to erode, it would be an echo of Abe’s first term as prime minister. He resigned in 2007 after just a year in office, as his administration foundered on a series of blunders and scandals.


Since returning to power in 2012 and holding on to it, Abe has been viewed as having learned lessons and become a much more savvy politician.