您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

美国会迫于压力重启朝核谈判吗?

更新时间:2017-6-22 18:35:50 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

U.S. Pressed to Pursue Deal to Freeze North Korea Missile Tests
美国会迫于压力重启朝核谈判吗?

WASHINGTON — The Trump administration has come under growing pressure to open negotiations on a temporary freeze on North Korea’s nuclear and missile tests in return for reducing the American military footprint in the Korean Peninsula, according to American officials and foreign diplomats.

华盛顿——据美国官员和外国外交使节透露,特朗普政府面临着越来越大的压力,重启临时冻结朝鲜核试验和导弹试验的谈判,以换取美国减少在朝鲜半岛的军事足迹。

Versions of the proposal, floated by Beijing for several months, have been revived several times this week, first by South Korea’s newly installed president and then by China’s foreign minister and one of its top military officials in talks on Wednesday with Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson and Defense Secretary Jim Mattis.

北京提出的这个建议的各种版本已经出现好几个月了,本周它又被重新提起了几次,先是韩国新任总统,然后是在中国国务委员和一名高级军事官员周三与国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森(Rex W Tillerson)和国防部长吉姆·马蒂斯(Jim Mattis)举行的对话中。

But White House officials say they are not interested in any proposal that would require the United States to lift military or economic pressure on the North, even in return for a moratorium on tests. Instead, Mr. Tillerson and Mr. Mattis publicly pressed the Chinese to exert more diplomatic and economic pressure on Pyongyang, though President Trump indicated on Twitter on Tuesday that he had just about given up on obtaining help from the Chinese.

但白宫官员表示,对于任何建议要求美国解除对朝鲜军事或经济压力的建议,他们都不感兴趣,哪怕这么做可以让朝鲜暂停试验。相反,蒂勒森和马蒂斯公开向中国施压,要求它对平壤施加更大的外交和经济压力,虽然特朗普本周二在Twitter上表示,他差不多要放弃从中国人那里获得帮助了。

“China understands that the United States regards North Korea as our top security threat,” Mr. Tillerson told reporters at a news conference after meetings with his Chinese counterpart, Yang Jiechi, and Gen. Fang Fenghui, in the first security dialogue with Beijing conducted by the Trump administration. “We reiterated to China that they have a diplomatic responsibility to exert much greater economic and diplomatic pressure on the regime if they want to prevent further escalation in the region.”

“中国明白美国把朝鲜当作最大的安全威胁。我们向中国重申,如果要防止该地区局势进一步升级,他们有外交上的责任,对那个政权施加更大的经济和外交压力。”蒂勒森在和中国同行杨洁篪以及房峰辉将军会面之后,在记者招待会上对记者说道。这是特朗普政府上台后第一次与北京举行安全对话。

But like his predecessors, Mr. Trump is gradually learning that for all its talk about cooperation, China is deeply reluctant to take any measures that could seriously destabilize the North Korean government, for fear the country might collapse or be absorbed by the South.

但就像他的几届前任一样,特朗普正逐渐认识到,虽然中国口头上主张合作,但因为担心朝鲜会崩溃、被韩国合并,并不愿意采取任何可能严重破坏朝鲜政府稳定的举措。

So China’s strategy has been to buy time — and preserve the status quo — with talks that may be linked to some kind of testing freeze. They may now have a new advocate of that approach, President Moon Jae-in of South Korea, who was elected on a platform pledging resumed engagement with the North. On Tuesday, he embraced a similar idea, telling Norah O’Donnell of CBS News in an interview that a freeze could be a way station to a second phase of talks that would “achieve the complete dismantling of North Korea’s nuclear program.”

所以中国主张通过谈判来冻结试验,其策略就是争取时间,保持现状。这种方法现在可能有一个新的支持者,那就是韩国新总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in),他在竞选期间承诺要恢复与朝鲜的接触。本周二,他在接受CBS新闻台诺拉·奥唐奈(Norah O'Donnell)的采访时,谈到了一个类似的想法。他说,冻结可能是进入第二阶段谈判——“彻底取消朝鲜核计划”的一条渠道。

In an interview broadcast on Wednesday, the North Korean ambassador to India, Kye Chun-yong, said his country was willing to consider a moratorium on nuclear and ballistic missile tests if the United States and South Korea stopped their annual joint military exercises.

朝鲜驻印度大使桂春英(Kye Chun Yong)周三在接受媒体采访时表示,如果美韩停止举行年度联合军事演习,朝鲜愿意考虑暂停核试验和弹道导弹试验。

“Under certain circumstances, we are willing to talk in terms of freezing nuclear testing or missile testing,” Mr. Kye said, speaking in English. “For instance, if the American side completely stops big, large-scale military exercises temporarily or permanently, then we will also temporarily stop. Let’s talk about how to solve the Korean issue peacefully.”

“在某些情况下,我们愿意就冻结核试验或导弹试验进行谈判,”桂春英用英语说道。“比如,如果美方暂时或永久性地完全停止大规模军事演习,我们也会暂时停止。让我们一起讨论如何和平解决朝鲜问题吧。”

But to American officials, a freeze is a trap that previous administrations have stepped into. The Clinton administration tried a freeze in 1994 that the North Koreans first cheated on and then openly discarded early in the administration of President George W. Bush. At the end of Mr. Bush’s term, a second such freeze and partial dismantlement of a nuclear reactor was negotiated, only to be abandoned by the North Koreans as soon as President Barack Obama entered office.

但对美国官员来说,冻结是一个陷阱,之前多届政府都陷入其中。克林顿政府在1994年尝试过冻结,但朝鲜先是作弊,然后在乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)总统政府成立初期公开撕毁协议。在布什任期结束时,双方又通过谈判达成了一份这此类冻结和部分拆除一个核反应堆的协议。但贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统一上台,朝鲜就废除了该协议。

Mr. Tillerson himself rejected the idea of such a negotiated freeze when he visited South Korea early this year, saying that it would simply enshrine “a comprehensive set of capabilities” that North Korea has already developed, a reference to its arsenal of a dozen or more nuclear weapons and a growing fleet of short- and medium-range missiles that can hit American troops in the region, along with South Korea and Japan.

今年年初访问韩国时,蒂勒森自己也反对通过谈判达成冻结协议这个想法,称这只是把朝鲜已经发展出来的“一整套能力”珍藏供奉起来。他指的是朝鲜由十多件核武器,以及数量越来越多的短程和中程导弹组成的武器库。那些导弹能够打击美国在该地区的驻军,以及韩国和日本。

But the idea has been embraced by some longtime Korea experts, including former Defense Secretary William J. Perry, who say that it is the only way to buy some time before North Korea successfully tests an intercontinental ballistic missile that could reach the United States.

但这个主意得到了一些资深朝鲜问题专家的支持,包括前国防部长威廉·J·佩里(William J. Perry)。佩里说,这是在朝鲜成功试射可抵达美国的洲际弹道导弹之前,唯一可以争取到一些时间的办法。

All the other options available to the United States have major drawbacks. They include secondary sanctions on Chinese banks and companies doing business with North Korea; a military strike; or simple acceptance of North Korea as a nuclear power.

美国可以采纳的其他选择都存在着严重不足。这些选择包括对与朝鲜有业务往来的中国银行和企业实行二级制裁、军事打击或接受朝鲜的核国家地位。

Secondary sanctions could ignite a trade war. Even a limited military strike could lead North Korea to attack Seoul with conventional weapons, with potentially catastrophic results. And few in the United States government are ready to accept North Korea as an established nuclear power.

二级制裁可能会引发贸易战。即便是有限的军事打击也可能促使朝鲜用常规武器攻击首尔,造成人员伤亡。而在美国政府内部,鲜有人做好了承认朝鲜已是一个核国家的准备。

Without a clear alternative, the Trump administration remains committed to urging China to crack down on Pyongyang. Some 90 percent of North Korea’s trade is with China. And although China recently banned imports of North Korea coal, overall trade between the two countries has actually been increasing.

在没有明确替代方案的情况下,特朗普政府依然致力于敦促中国压制平壤。朝鲜大约90%的贸易是和中国进行的。而且,尽管中国最近禁止进口朝鲜的煤炭,但两国之间的总体贸易其实一直在增长。

Mr. Tillerson said countries around the world were cracking down on activities North Korea uses to fund its weapons programs, “and we hope China will do their part as well.”

蒂勒森说,全世界的国家都在打击朝鲜用来为其核计划提供资金的活动,“我们希望中国也承担起自己的责任”。

Mr. Mattis vowed to “continue to take necessary measures to defend ourselves and our allies.”

马蒂斯则发誓要“继续采取必要措施,保卫自己和我们的盟友”。

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表