您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

一个美国青年的死牵动美朝中韩多边关系

更新时间:2017-6-21 10:46:03 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Otto Warmbier’s Death Dims Chances of Improved U.S. Relations With North Korea
一个美国青年的死牵动美朝中韩多边关系

SEOUL, South Korea — When a senior United States official visits North Korea, it is usually taken as a sign that tensions between the adversaries are easing somewhat. That is particularly true when the official brings home a newly freed American captive.

韩国首尔——每当美国高级官员访问朝鲜时,人们一般都会将其视为是这两个对手之间紧张局势有所缓解的迹象。如果该官员能带着一名新近获释的被朝鲜关押的美国人回家,则更是如此。

But the trip made last week by Joseph Y. Yun, the top United States envoy on North Korea, was starkly different. The American prisoner he brought home, Otto Warmbier, had been in a coma for most of the 17 months he spent incarcerated in the North. On Monday, Mr. Warmbier, a 22-year-old college student, died at a hospital in Cincinnati, where his parents blamed Pyongyang’s “awful, torturous mistreatment” of their son.

不过,美国国务院的朝鲜问题特别代表尹汝尚(Joseph Y. Yun)上周的访问却截然不同。他带回家的美国囚犯奥托·瓦姆比尔(Otto F. Warmbier)在被朝鲜监禁的17个月里,大部分时间都处于昏迷状态。周一,22岁的大学生瓦姆比尔在辛辛那提的一家医院去世,他的父母指责平壤对儿子进行了“恶劣虐待”。

Analysts said anger over Mr. Warmbier’s death would dim, if not scuttle, any prospect of a less antagonistic relationship in the near future between Washington and Pyongyang, which is still holding three other Americans. The White House has quietly pushed for the release of all the Americans as a first step toward better relations, and President Trump has sometimes publicly indicated a willingness to talk with the North’s leader, Kim Jong-un, about its pursuit of nuclear arms and missiles capable of striking the United States.

分析人士说,瓦姆比尔的死亡所引起的愤怒,让华盛顿和平壤在不久的将来不再那么对抗的前景变得暗淡,如果不是让这种前景变得不可能的话,平壤仍关押着另外三名美国人。白宫一直在暗中推动平壤释放所有的美国人,将其作为建立更好关系的第一步,特朗普总统有时还公开表示,愿意与朝鲜领导人金正恩进行对话,讨论朝鲜寻求能够打击美国的核武器和导弹的问题。

“I believe it’s going to set back any serious discussion about a diplomatic dialogue until this is cleared up,” former Gov. Bill Richardson of New Mexico, an expert on North Korea who has helped extricate Americans held there, said of Mr. Warmbier’s death. “I think the first objective has to be to get the three other Americans out, and get a full explanation of what happened to Otto Warmbier.”

“我相信,在这件事得到解决之前,任何关于外交对话的严肃讨论都将受到挫折,”新墨西哥州前州长、朝鲜问题专家比尔·理查森(Bill Richardson)说,他指的是瓦姆比尔的死亡。“我认为,首要目标是要让其他三名美国人获释,并得到在瓦姆比尔身上发生了什么事情的充分解释。”

Jae H. Ku, director of the U.S.-Korea Institute at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies, agreed that moves toward diplomacy would be delayed. “I think it’s going to be slowed down. There is going to be a lot of anger and venting of frustrations,” he said.

约翰·霍普金斯大学美韩研究所主任具宰会(Jae H. Ku)也表示走向外交的行动将会推迟。“我觉得会慢下来。会有很多愤怒和沮丧的发泄,”他说。

But other analysts said that however horrific the case might be, the Trump administration was unlikely to let it upset the momentum toward dialogue it has built in recent months. They said that Mr. Yun’s trip was the first fruit of those efforts and that North Korea may have freed Mr. Warmbier to open up space for diplomacy with Washington, even if they anticipated the anger that his condition would provoke in the United States.

但有些分析人士则表示,不管这件事多么令人震惊,特朗普政府不太可能会让近几个月来通向对话的势头受到打击。他们说,尹汝尚的这次访问是这些努力的首个成果,朝鲜释放瓦姆比尔的做法也许是为与华盛顿开展外交打开空间,即使朝鲜对瓦姆比尔的状态会在美国会引起愤怒有所预料。

A statement on Monday from Mr. Trump about Mr. Warmbier condemned the North for its “brutality,” but he and Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson both stopped short of announcing fresh sanctions in response.

特朗普在周一发布的关于瓦姆比尔的声明中谴责了朝鲜的“暴行”,但他和国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森都没有在对此事的回应中宣布新的制裁措施。

Mr. Warmbier was visiting North Korea as part of a tour group when he was detained at the Pyongyang airport in January 2016. Two months later, he was sentenced to 15 years of hard labor for the “hostile act” of trying to steal a propaganda poster off the wall of his hotel.

瓦姆比尔于2016年1月在平壤机场被扣押,之前他曾作为旅游团的成员在朝鲜旅游。两个月后,他因试图从他的酒店的墙上偷走宣传海报的“敌对行为”被判处15年劳役。

In a series of low-key communications with the North Koreans in recent months, the Trump administration pushed for the release of Mr. Warmbier and the three other Americans as a first step toward improving ties, according to South Korean officials and others familiar with the process, who spoke on the condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the matter.

据韩国官员及其他熟悉情况的人士说,在最近几个月里与朝鲜的一系列低调接触中,特朗普政府在劝说朝鲜释放瓦姆比尔和其他三名美国人,将其作为迈向改善关系的第一步。这些知情者由于所讨论问题的敏感性要求不具名。

When Mr. Yun held a secret meeting with Choe Son-hui, a senior negotiator from the North Korean Foreign Ministry, in Oslo last month, the North Koreans agreed to look into the matter, these people said. But this month, the North Koreans came back with shocking news: They said Mr. Warmbier had been in a coma for more than a year and told the Americans to take him home.

这些人说,上个月,尹汝尚在奥斯陆与朝鲜外交部的高级谈判代表崔善姫进行秘密会晤时,朝鲜同意研究释放的问题。但是这个月,朝鲜人带回来的是令人震惊的消息:他们说瓦姆比尔已经昏迷了一年多,他们让美国人把他带回家去。

North Korea has said it released Mr. Warmbier on “humanitarian grounds” but did not explain his medical condition. It has told American officials that Mr. Warmbier fell into a coma after contracting botulism, according to his family.

朝鲜表示,释放瓦姆比尔是出于“人道主义考虑”,但没有解释他的病情。据瓦姆比尔的家人说,朝鲜方面告诉美国官员,瓦姆比尔因感染了肉毒杆菌而陷入昏迷状态。

American doctors found “extensive” brain damage but could not say what had caused the injury. They found no evidence of botulism, or that Mr. Warmbier had been beaten, as one American official had asserted.

美国医生查出了“大面积”的脑损伤,但不能确定造成伤害的原因。他们没有发现感染肉毒杆菌、或像一位美国官员所称的瓦姆比尔遭到殴打的证据。

“Perhaps his condition deteriorated and the authorities decided it was better to release him in a coma than as a corpse,” said John Delury, a North Korea expert at Yonsei University in Seoul. “North Koreans might have feelers out to see if there is a deal to be made with the Trump administration, and releasing Mr. Warmbier is a way to move that process along, while also removing what could be an obstacle down the road.”

“也许他的病情恶化了,所以朝鲜当局决定,最好是让他在昏迷状态获释,而不是把尸体送回美国,”首尔延世大学的朝鲜问题专家鲁乐汉(John Delury)说。“朝鲜人可能在做一种试探,看看是否能与特朗普政府做交易,释放瓦姆比尔是推动这个过程的一种方式,同时也消除了可能会阻挡道路的障碍。”

Mr. Warmbier’s death comes at a delicate time in international diplomacy surrounding North Korea. Senior Chinese and American officials are due to meet in Washington this week, and United States officials planned to press their counterparts to do more to rein in Pyongyang’s nuclear pursuits.

瓦姆比尔的死亡发生在围绕着朝鲜的国际外交活动的微妙时刻。中国和美国的高级官员按计划将于本周在华盛顿会晤,美国官员打算向其中国同行施压,让他们在遏制平壤的核努力上更有作为。

China, North Korea’s main ally, is a strong advocate for negotiations over the North’s nuclear program, and Mr. Warmbier’s death seemed unlikely to change that. At a daily news briefing in Beijing, a Foreign Ministry spokesman, Geng Shuang, called the death “really a tragedy” but stopped short of reprimanding North Korea for its treatment of Mr. Warmbier.

中国是朝鲜的主要盟友,并坚决主张以谈判的方式解决朝鲜的核问题,瓦姆比尔的死亡似乎不大可能会改变中国的立场。外交部发言人耿爽在北京今天的例行记者会上说,瓦姆比尔的死亡是“一起不幸的事件”,但没有对朝鲜对待瓦姆比尔的做法表示谴责。

Shi Yinhong, a professor of international relations at Renmin University in Beijing, said that China would not punish North Korea over a human rights issue. “What makes China take steps is a missile or nuclear test, not the death of an American student,” he said.

北京人民大学国际关系教授时殷弘说,中国不会在人权问题上惩罚朝鲜。他说,“让中国采取步骤的是导弹或核试验,而不是美国学生的死亡。”

Another Chinese analyst, Cheng Xiaohe, an associate professor of international relations at Renmin University, said Mr. Warmbier’s death illustrated the “failure of North Korea’s hostage diplomacy” because it would strengthen “hard-liners” in the Trump administration. He said there could be retaliation from the United States unless Pyongyang took a step like freeing the three remaining American captives.

另一名中国分析人士、人民大学国际关系副教授成晓河说,瓦姆比尔的死亡表明了“朝鲜人质外交的失败”,因为这会加强特朗普政府中的“强硬派”。成晓河说,除非平壤采取比如释放其余三名被关押的美国人的步骤,否则可能会遭到美国的报复。

“I believe the U.S. will not let the issue slip away quietly and will take retaliatory actions soon if North Korea fails to make a conciliatory move regarding the detainees,” he said.

“我相信,如果朝鲜在被拘押者的问题上不作出和解行动的话,美国不会让这个问题不声不响地消失,美国将采取报复行动。”

Mr. Warmbier’s case has drawn new attention to the other three American prisoners in North Korea, who Mr. Yun was allowed to meet when he visited Pyongyang.

瓦姆比尔的情况引起了人们对被朝鲜关押的其他三名美国囚犯的最新关注,尹汝尚在访问平壤期间被允许与这三人见面。

They are Tony Kim, a volunteer accounting teacher in his mid-50s who had taught at the Pyongyang University of Science and Technology, arrested in April for unknown reasons; Kim Hak-song, who also worked for the same university and did agricultural work, also arrested for unknown reasons, in early May; and Kim Dong-chul, 63, a businessman who has been serving a 10-year sentence of hard labor since April 2016, on spying charges.

他们中的一位是50多岁的托尼·金(Tony Kim),他曾在平壤科技大学任教,义务教授会计学,今年4月被捕,原因不明。另一位是在同一所大学工作的金学松(Kim Hak-song),他从事农业工作,于5月初被捕,原因也不明。第三位是63岁的商人金东哲(Kim Dong-chul),自从2016年4月以来一直在服10年苦役的徒刑,罪名是间谍罪。

Six South Koreans and a Korean-Canadian also remain in North Korean captivity on various criminal charges. South Korea’s president, Moon Jae-in, said on Tuesday that his government would redouble efforts to free the South Koreans from the North. He also sent a message of condolences to the Warmbier family, saying it was “deeply deplorable that North Korea does not respect the universal standards and values of human rights,” according to his office.

六名韩国人和一名韩裔加拿大人也因为各种刑事指控被朝鲜关押。韩国总统文在寅周二表示,他的政府将加倍努力,争取让被朝鲜关押的韩国人获释。他还向瓦姆比尔的家人表示了慰唁,据韩国总统府发布的信息,文在寅说,“朝鲜不尊重人权的普适标准和价值观,令人极为愤慨。”

Mr. Moon, who took office in May, is more open to dialogue with North Korea than any of his recent predecessors. He is scheduled to meet with Mr. Trump in Washington this month and is expected to urge the president to talk to Pyongyang, saying that sanctions alone have failed to change the North’s behavior. But South Korean officials feared that idea would be a harder sell after Mr. Warmbier’s death.

五月份就任总统的文在寅比其最近的所有前任都更愿意与朝鲜进行对话。他按计划将于本月在华盛顿与特朗普会面,预计他会敦促特朗普与平壤对话,文在寅曾表示,只是采取制裁未能改变朝鲜的行为。但是,韩国官员担心,瓦姆比尔去世后,说服他们接受这个想法将会更加困难。

Still, there was cautious hope here that if North Korea and the United States negotiated the release of the other three Americans, it could eventually pave the way for far more complicated talks over how to contain or dismantle North Korea’s nuclear weapons programs.

尽管如此,如果朝鲜和美国能谈成释放其他三名美国人事宜,这可能最终会为更为复杂、关于如何遏制或捣毁朝鲜核武器项目的谈判铺平道路。

“Over the years, South Koreans have grown weary as tensions kept rising and the North’s nuclear program kept advancing,” said Yang Moo-jin, a professor at the University of North Korean Studies in Seoul. “There is a growing sense that we needed change, a breakthrough.”

“多年来,随着紧张局势不断加剧,朝鲜的核计划不断发展,韩国人对这个问题越来越不感兴趣,”首尔的朝鲜问题研究大学的教授杨武仁(Yang Moo-jin)说。“越来越多人意识到,我们需要改变做法,需要有一个突破。”

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表