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更新时间:2017-6-13 10:24:47 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Duterte, Focused on Drug Users in Philippines, Ignored Rise of ISIS

MANILA, Philippines — It was classic bravado from the Philippines’ tough-guy president, Rodrigo Duterte.


The Maute Group, a militant Islamic band fighting government troops near the southern Philippines city of Marawi last year, had asked for a cease-fire.


The president rejected the overture.


“They said that they will go down upon Marawi to burn the place,” Duterte recounted in December. “And I said, ‘Go ahead, do it.'”


He got his wish.


Hundreds of militants belonging to the Maute Group and its allies fighting under the black flag of the Islamic State, also known as ISIS, seized Marawi three weeks ago, leading to a battle with the Philippine armed forces and the biggest test yet of Duterte’s leadership during his tumultuous first year in office.


A president who has focused on a deadly anti-drug campaign that has claimed the lives of thousands of Filipinos seems to have been caught unprepared for a militant threat that has been festering in the south for years.


“The government has largely been in denial about the growth of ISIS and affiliated groups,” said Zachary M. Abuza, a professor at the National War College in Washington who specializes in Southeast Asian security issues. “Duterte has been preoccupied with his campaign of gutting the rule of law by using police and other security forces for the extrajudicial killing of drug pushers.”

“菲律宾政府在很大程度上不接受ISIS及其附属团伙在该国发展的事实,”位于华盛顿的国家战争学院教授扎卡里·M·阿布扎(Zachary M. Abuza)说,他专门研究东南亚安全问题。“杜特地一门心思地要废除法制,在禁毒运动中使用警察及其他安全部队对兜售毒品者进行法外谋杀。”

Government forces have been unable to dislodge the militants despite deploying ground troops and bombing the city of 200,000 people from the air. More than 200 people have been killed, including 24 civilians, 58 soldiers and police officers, and at least 138 militants, according to the Philippine military.


Tens of thousands of civilians have fled, and much of the city center lies in ruins. The military says that it has cleared 90 percent of the city but that militants remain in three neighborhoods in the center, where the militants are mixed in with hundreds of civilians.


Duterte has declared 60 days of martial law for the southern island of Mindanao, which includes Marawi and his hometown, Davao City. He has twice set deadlines for troops to retake Marawi, the country’s largest predominantly Muslim city, but each deadline has passed with the battle still raging.


On Friday, Brig. Gen. Restituto Padilla predicted that the government would retake Marawi by Monday, Philippines Independence Day. On Saturday, 13 Philippine marines were killed in a clash with militants there.

雷斯蒂图托·帕迪亚准将(Brig. Gen. Restituto Padilla)周五预计,政府军将在周一的菲律宾独立日收复马拉维市。周六,13名菲律宾海军陆战队员在那里与武装分子发生的冲突中丧生。

The militants’ seizure of the city, a bold attempt to establish an Islamic State caliphate in Southeast Asia, marks a significant advance for the Middle East-based terrorist group as well as an apparent reordering of the militant threat in the southern Philippines.


For the first time, it puts the Philippines on the map with failed states such as Libya and Afghanistan as places where Islamic State allies have sought to seize territory for a caliphate, giving the group another regional flash point in its effort to spread its influence globally.


The Islamic State has urged fighters who cannot reach Syria to join the jihad in the Philippines instead, said Sidney Jones, director of the Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict. Fighters from Indonesia, Malaysia, Chechnya, Yemenand Saudi Arabia were among those killed in the battle for Marawi.

冲突政策分析研究所(Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict)主任西德尼·琼斯(Sidney Jones)说,伊斯兰国已经在呼吁那些不能到叙利亚参加圣战的战士前来菲律宾。在马拉维战斗中被打死的武装分子中就有来自印度尼西亚、马来西亚、车臣、也门,以及沙特阿拉伯的战士。

Mindanao has long been a hotbed of insurgencies, with numerous armed groups operating outside government control. Until the siege at Marawi, the best-known internationally was Abu Sayyaf, an ostensibly Islami militant group that specialized in kidnapping for ransom, turning Southeast Asia into the world’s piracy capital, edging out the Horn of Africa.

棉兰老岛一直是叛乱的温床,这里有许多武装团伙在政府控制之外运作。在马拉维市失陷前,这里在国际上最有名的团伙是阿布沙耶夫(Abu Sayyaf),一个自我宣称是伊斯兰武装组织、专门从事赎金绑架的团伙,该团伙已让东南亚取缔了非洲之角,成为世界上最大的海盗首都。

The Marawi siege also heralds the rise of Isnilon Hapilon, a longtime leader of Abu Sayyaf who had grown more ideologically minded over the years. Last year, Hapilon, 51, was named by the Islamic State as its emir in Southeast Asia. Previously based on the island of Basilan, he is on the FBI’s list of most-wanted terrorists, and the United States has offered a $5 million reward for his capture.

马拉维市的失陷也预示着伊斯尼隆·哈皮隆(Isnilon Hapilon)的崛起,哈皮隆长期以来担任阿布沙耶夫的领导人,近年来,他的思想变得更加意识形态化。去年,伊斯兰国命名51岁的哈皮隆为其在东南亚的埃米尔。哈皮隆以前的基地在巴西兰岛,他在联邦调查局头号通缉的恐怖分子名单上,美国为将他捕获提供了500万美元的悬赏。

Various factions have come together behind Hapilon, notably the Maute Group, led by the brothers Omar and Abdullah Maute. Educated in the Middle East, the Mautes are based in the Marawi area and recently accepted Hapilon’s leadership as emir.


The Mautes are believed responsible for bombing a market in Davao City in September that killed 15.


Duterte is the first president from Mindanao, and he ran last year as the candidate who could bring peace to the region. The bombing of his hometown may have inspired his angry challenge to the Mautes in December.


“It’s the usual Duterte brand of bravado,” said Roilo Golez, a former national security adviser to President Gloria Macapagal Arroyo, who left office in 2010. “It’s a way of intimidating the opposition. It works most of the time.”

“这是通常的杜特地型逞强,”曾在2010年卸任的前总统格洛丽亚·马卡帕加尔·阿罗约(Gloria Macapagal Arroyo)手下担任国家安全顾问的罗伊洛·戈雷兹(Roilo Golez)说。“这种吓唬反对派的手法,大多数时候管用。”

It hasn’t with the Islami in Mindanao.


After a clash between his military and Abu Sayyaf in April, Duterte suggested that the way to stop the militants was to eat them. “Make me mad,” he taunted. “Get me a terrorist. Give me salt and vinegar. I will eat his liver.”


In May, the Philippine military got a tip that Hapilon had arrived in Marawi to join up with the Maute brothers. When soldiers raided the house where Hapilon was believed to be, hoping to capture him and claim the $5 million reward, they were surprised to find dozens of well-armed militants arrayed against them.


Muslims make up only about 5 percent of the country’s population overall but a larger proportion, estimated at 20 to 40 percent, on Mindanao.


Historic grievances among the Muslim Moro people there, widespread poverty and large lawless areas have helped create an opportunity for the Islamic State. A peace process pursued by Duterte’s predecessor, President Benigno S. Aquino III, faltered in 2015 and has remained deadlocked under Duterte.

那里的几个因素为伊斯兰国创造了有利机会,包括信奉穆斯林的摩洛人中存在的历史遗留下来的不满、广泛的贫困,以及大片不受法律管辖的地区。杜特地的前任、贝尼尼奥·S·阿基诺三世(Benigno S. Aquino III)总统在那里开启的和平进程,2015年以来一直徘徊不前,在杜特地领导下仍不见起色。

“It was not the spread of ISIS in Iraq and Syria that fueled ISIS cells in the Philippines, but the collapse of the peace process,” said Abuza, the National War College professor.


The growing threat in the south will most likely compel Duterte to improve his relations with the United States, a process that had already begun with the election of President Donald Trump.


Duterte has raged against the United States for daring to criticize his anti-drug campaign and, when President Barack Obama was in office, called for a “separation” from Washington. But Trump has shown a willingness to overlook the killings and has praised Duterte for doing an “unbelievable job on the drug problem.”


Leaders of the Philippines armed forces prevailed on Duterte not to reduce military cooperation, including a long-standing U.S. program to provide training, equipment and intelligence to fight terrorism. Since 2001, the United States has maintained a rotating force of 50 to 100 troops in the southern Philippines to combat Abu Sayyaf.


On Sunday, Duterte said he never asked the United States for help in Marawi, and it was a surprise to him when U.S. Special Forces arrived to assist the Philippine military.


The U.S. Embassy said Friday that U.S. personnel were helping as part of a military relationship with the Philippines that “remains robust and multifaceted.” Emma Nagy, a spokeswoman for the embassy in Manila, said, "U.S. Special Forces have been providing support and assistance in the southern Philippines for many years, at the request of several different Filipino administrations.”

美国大使馆周五表示,作为与菲律宾的军事关系的一部分,美方人员正在提供帮助,美菲之间的军事关系“仍然强大、而且是多方面的”。马尼拉大使馆发言人艾玛·纳吉(Emma Nagy)说,“美国特种部队一直在应菲律宾几届不同政府的要求,在菲律宾南部提供支持和协助,这已经好多年了。”