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韩国暂停部署萨德,朝鲜再发数枚导弹

更新时间:2017-6-9 11:29:58 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea Fires More Missiles as Seoul Puts Off U.S. Defense System
韩国暂停部署萨德,朝鲜再发数枚导弹

TOKYO — North Korea launched several cruise missiles from its east coast toward the ocean on Thursday in its fourth missile test in four weeks, the South Korean military said.

东京——韩国军方表示,周四,朝鲜向东部海域发射了几枚巡航导弹,这是它在四周内进行的第四次导弹试验。

The launches came just a day after the administration of the newly elected South Korean president, Moon Jae-in, said it was suspending the deployment of an American missile defense system, and less than a week after the United Nations Security Council expanded sanctions against North Korea.

就在发射前一天,新当选的韩国总统文在寅(Moon Jae-in)的政府表示,韩国正暂停部署美国的一个导弹防御系统。而在不到一周前,联合国安理会扩大了对朝鲜的制裁。

According to a statement from South Korea’s joint chiefs of staff, reported by the Yonhap news agency, the missiles appeared to be surface-to-ship missiles.

韩国联合通讯社(Yonhap)报道称,根据韩国参谋长联席会议(Joint Chiefs of Staff)的一项声明,那些导弹似乎是地对舰导弹。

Thursday was the 10th time this year that North Korea tested missiles.

周四的试验是朝鲜今年进行的第10次导弹试验。

Mr. Moon suspended the deployment of the missile defense system — called Terminal High Altitude Area Defense, or Thaad — in an apparent concession to China and a significant break with the United States on policy toward North Korea.

文在寅暂停部署萨德(Thaad)导弹防御系统,明显是向中国让步,也代表着在对朝政策上与美国的重大决裂。

In comments to reporters on Wednesday, a senior official from the presidential Blue House in Seoul said that two launchers already installed could remain, but that four launchers yet to be deployed would not be set up until the administration completed an environmental assessment.

周三,首尔总统官邸青瓦台的一名高级官员对记者说,两辆已经部署的发射车可以保留,但另外四辆尚未部署的发射车要先等政府完成环境评估。

The missile defense system has been contentious in South Korea and has drawn sharp criticism from China, which views the system’s radar as a threat. Beijing has taken retaliatory economic measures against Seoul, including curtailing the flow of Chinese tourists and punishing South Korean companies in China.

该导弹防御系统在韩国引发了争议,同时遭到了中国的尖锐批评,后者认为该系统的雷达是对自己的威胁。北京对首尔采取了报复性经济措施,包括减少赴韩中国游客,惩罚在华韩国企业。

During his campaign, Mr. Moon, who won the presidency last month, complained that the United States and the previous South Korean administration had rushed to deploy Thaad in order to present him with a fait accompli. His decision to suspend the installation could strain relations with the White House, which has taken a hard line in confronting North Korea and its nuclear weapons program. It could also hurt American efforts to present a tough, unified position with Japan and South Korea against the North.

上月赢得总统大选的文在寅在竞选期间抱怨称,美国和前韩国政府匆忙部署萨德,意在给他制造一个既成事实。他暂停部署的决定可能会导致与白宫的关系紧张,白宫在对抗朝鲜及其核武器计划上采取强硬路线。这也可能会破坏美国联合日本和韩国对朝鲜采取一致强硬立场的努力。

Mr. Moon, who has said he wants to resolve the nuclear crisis through dialogue, has also suggested that South Korea must “learn to say no” to Washington. He has already signaled a softening stance toward North Korea by encouraging aid groups to visit the country, although the North has rejected those offers since Seoul supported new United Nations sanctions.

文在寅已表示,他想通过对话来解决核危机。他也提出,韩国应该“学会对华盛顿说不”。他已经向朝鲜表露出更温和的姿态,鼓励援助团访问朝鲜,不过,朝鲜拒绝了那些帮助,因为首尔支持联合国的新制裁决定。

Analysts said that as people protested the Thaad installation and South Korean businesses pressured the government to improve relations with China, Mr. Moon might have decided that suspending the progress of the system was politically expedient.

分析人士表示,由于民众抗议部署萨德,再加上韩国公司向政府施压,希望改进与中国的关系,所以,文在寅可能认为,暂停部署萨德是政治上的权宜之计。

“I think he is trying to find a diplomatic way to slow down the process to placate the business community and placate his political supporters,” said Stephen R. Nagy, senior associate professor of politics and international studies at International Christian University in Tokyo.

“我认为,他在努力寻找一条外交途径,放缓这个过程,以安抚企业界和自己的政治支持者,”东京国际基督教大学(International Christian University)的政治和国际关系研究高级副教授斯蒂芬·R·纳吉(Stephen R. Nagy)说。

Mr. Moon may also have sensed that China was not going to back down. When Lee Hae-chan, South Korea’s special presidential envoy, visited Beijing last month, President Xi Jinping did not concede anything. China’s strategy is to stand firm against Thaad to force Mr. Moon to modify or even eliminate the system, which the Chinese suspect he does not like, either.

文在寅可能也感觉到中国不会让步。上个月,韩国总统特使李海瓒(Lee Hae-chan)访问北京时,习近平主席没有做出任何让步。中国的战略是坚决反对萨德,迫使文在寅修改甚至取消该系统,而中国猜测文在寅也不喜欢该系统。

The defense system officially went into operation in late April on an abandoned golf course in Seongju, 135 miles southeast of Seoul, when two of six launchers were installed. United States military officials say it is “operational and has the ability to intercept North Korean missiles.”

4月底,该防御系统在首尔东南135英里的星州郡的一个废弃高尔夫球场正式开始运行,六辆发射车中有两辆已安装到位。美国军方官员表示,该系统“运行正常,有能力拦截朝鲜的导弹”。

This week, Mr. Moon accused the Defense Ministry of trying to dodge a required environmental assessment.

本周,文在寅指责国防部试图躲避法律要求的一项环境评估。

In South Korea, any military installation on a site larger than 330,000 square meters requires a full analysis of the potential environmental and social effects. The ministry divided the site, which is 700,000 square meters, into two parcels to expedite the installation.

在韩国,大于33万平方米的场地安装任何军事设备都需要对潜在的环境和社会影响进行全面分析。为了加快安装进程,国防部将这块70万平方米的场地分成了两块。

Supporters of Mr. Moon said he was simply working to ensure that the Thaad battery complied with the law.

文在寅的支持者表示,他只是努力确保萨德遵守法律。

“The previous administration wasn’t really clear and transparent about the review process, and basically, this is a legal procedure,” said Choi Jong-kun, a professor of political science at Yonsei University in Seoul.

“上届政府的评估过程并不清晰透明,从根本上讲,这是一个法律程序,”首尔延世大学(Yonsei University)的政治学教授崔钟建(Choi Jong-kun)说。

Mr. Choi said the president was eager to follow the legal procedure given that his predecessor, Park Geun-hye, was impeached and ousted after accusations of corruption.

崔钟建表示,现任总统渴望遵守法律程序,因为他的前任朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)因遭到腐败指控而被弹劾罢黜。

A spokeswoman for the American forces in South Korea referred requests for comment to the Blue House.

一位驻韩美军发言人将置评请求推给了青瓦台。

American military officials noted that the system became operational in April and therefore could provide basic, limited defense in the event of a North Korean attack, even if the additional launchers were not deployed.

美国军方官员指出,该系统从4月份开始运行,因此能够在朝鲜发动攻击时提供有限的、基础的防御,尽管其他发射车尚未部署到位。

“We continue to work with the Korean government on this and have been transparent about our actions through this process,” said Capt. Jeff Davis, a Pentagon spokesman.

“我们继续在此问题上与韩国政府合作,在整个过程中保持我们行动的透明,”五角大楼发言人杰夫·戴维斯上校(Capt. Jeff Davis)说。

Pentagon officials noted that the missile defense deployment was a result of an agreement reached last year. But they also acknowledged that, since President Trump has pulled out of international agreements reached by his predecessor, Barack Obama, there is precedent for Mr. Moon’s move.

五角大楼官员指出,该导弹防御部署是基于去年达成的一项协议。不过他们也承认,既然特朗普总统退出了他的前任贝拉克·奥巴马达成的一些国际协议,那么文在寅的行动也是有先例可循。

Opponents of Mr. Moon said the suspension was probably a first step toward rejecting the defense system altogether. Oh Shin-hwan, a spokesman for the conservative-leaning Bareun Party, said in a statement that because the environmental review would take more than a year to complete, “the government does not intend to deploy the remaining four launchers.”

文在寅的反对者表示,暂停部署很可能是完全放弃该防御系统的第一步。具有保守主义倾向的正党(Bareun Party)的发言人吴申焕(Oh Shin-hwan)在一项声明中表示,由于环境评估需要花费一年多的时间才能完成,“所以政府并不打算部署剩下的四辆发射车”。

“North Korean provocations are occurring almost every day,” the statement said. “And South Korea is saying that it will defend the country with half of the Thaad system.”

“朝鲜几乎每天都在挑衅,”该声明称,“而韩国却说它要用半个萨德系统来保卫国家。”

Analysts said it was too early to predict the outcome of the assessment. The early deployment “was rushed, so if the rush has been slowed down a bit, it’s not the end of the world,” said Gordon Flake, the chief executive of the Perth-U.S. Asia Center at the University of Western Australia.

分析人士表示,现在预测评估结果为时尚早。西澳大学(University of Western Australia)的珀斯-美国亚洲研究中心(Perth-U.S. Asia Center)主任戈登·弗雷克(Gordon Flake)表示,早期的部署“很仓促,所以现在放慢一点,也不是世界末日”。

But, he added, Mr. Moon “has to be aware of a fundamentally changed strategic environment in the last several years in Northeast Asia.” As North Korea rapidly develops the capability to strike Japan and American bases in the region, Mr. Flake said, “decisions that South Korea makes have regional and global implications.”

不过他补充说,文在寅“必须意识到,在过去几年里,东北亚的战略环境发生了根本性变化”。弗雷克表示,由于朝鲜打击该地区日美军事基地的能力快速提高,所以“韩国的决定会产生地区性和全球性影响”。

Scott A. Snyder, senior fellow for Korea studies and director of the program on United States-Korea policy at the Council on Foreign Relations, said in an email that American officials should explain the need for the defense system to the new administration, and that Mr. Moon’s supporters should not reject it simply because Ms. Park had approved it or give in to pressure from China.

朝鲜问题高级研究员、美国对外关系委员会(Council on Foreign Relations)美韩政策项目主任斯科特·A·施耐德(Scott A. Snyder)在接受电子邮件采访时表示,美国官员应该向新政府解释该防御系统的必要性,文在寅的支持者不应该仅仅因为朴槿惠批准了它而排斥它,也不应该迫于中国的压力而放弃它。

“Thaad is at risk of becoming overly politicized,” Mr. Snyder wrote. “And both sides need to take a deep breath and reaffirm common objectives and means for dealing with them rather than allowing Thaad to become a neuralgic and reflexive object of confrontation.”

“萨德有可能被过于政治化,”施耐德写道,“双方需要冷静下来,重新确定共同目标以及实现目标的方式,而不应该让萨德成为一个神经质的、不假思索的冲突对象。”

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