您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 观点 >> 正文

特朗普愚蠢而鲁莽的决定

更新时间:2017-6-4 9:36:14 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump’s Stupid and Reckless Climate Decision
特朗普愚蠢而鲁莽的决定

People say, if all you have is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail. We should be so lucky. President Trump has a hammer, but all he’ll use it for is to smash things that others have built, as the world looks on in wonder and in fear. The latest, most troubling example is his decision to obliterate the Paris climate accord: After nearly 200 years of scientific inquiry and over 20 years of patient diplomacy that united every nation save Syria and Nicaragua, we had this afternoon’s big game-show Rose Garden reveal: Count us out.

有人说,如果你只有一把锤子,那么所有问题看上去都像钉子。要是那样就好了。特朗普总统有一把锤子,但他只会在全世界充满讶异和担忧的注视下,用锤子砸毁其他人已经打造好的成果。最近也是最令人不安的例子是他摧毁巴黎气候协定的决策:经过近200年的科学调查和20多年耐心的外交斡旋,除叙利亚和尼加拉瓜外的所有国家都团结起来了,但今天下午,我们却在玫瑰园(Rose Garden)迎来了一线综艺节目式的谜底揭晓:别把我们算上。

It’s a stupid and reckless decision — our nation’s dumbest act since launching the war in Iraq. But it’s not stupid and reckless in the normal way. Instead, it amounts to a thorough repudiation of two of the civilizing forces on our planet: diplomacy and science. It undercuts our civilization’s chances of surviving global warming, but it also undercuts our civilization itself, since that civilization rests in large measure on those two forces.

这是一个愚蠢、鲁莽的决定,是我国自从在伊拉克发动战争以来最拙笨的行为。但它不是通常意义上的那种愚蠢和鲁莽,而是相当于对我们这个星球上的两大文明力量,即外交和科学的彻底否定。它削弱了我们的文明熬过全球变暖的机会,也削弱了我们的文明本身,因为文明在很大程度上依赖于这两股力量。

Science first. Since the early 1800s we’ve been slowly but surely figuring out the mystery of how our climate operates — why our planet is warmer than it should be, given its distance from the sun. From Fourier to Foote and Tyndall, from Arrhenius to Revelle and Suess and Keeling, researchers have worked out the role that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases play in regulating temperature. By the 1980s, as supercomputers let us model the climate with ever greater power, we came to understand our possible fate. Those big brains, just in time, gave us the warning we required.

先说科学。从19世纪初开始,我们一直在缓慢但稳步地解开气候活动的谜团:考虑到与太阳的距离,我们地球为什么比正常情况更暖和。从傅里叶到富特和廷德耳,从阿累尼乌斯到雷维尔、聚斯和基林,研究人员找出了二氧化碳和其他温室气体在调节气温中所起的作用。到上世纪80年代,随着超级计算机让我们越来越能够设计气候模型,我们慢慢明白了自己可能的命运。那些巨型大脑及时向我们发出了我们需要的警告。

And now, in this millennium, we’ve watched the warning start to play out. We’ve seen 2014 set a new global temperature record, which was smashed in 2015 and smashed again in 2016. We’ve watched Arctic sea ice vanish at a record pace and measured the early disintegration of Antarctica’s great ice sheets. We’ve been able to record alarming increases in drought and flood and wildfire, and we’ve been able to link them directly to the greenhouse gases we’ve poured into the atmosphere. This is the largest-scale example in the planet’s history of the scientific method in operation, the continuing dialectic between hypothesis and skepticism that arrived eventually at a strong consensus about the most critical aspects of our planet’s maintenance. Rational people the world around understand. As Bloomberg Businessweek blazoned across its cover the week after Hurricane Sandy smashed into Wall Street, “It’s Global Warming, Stupid.”

现在,在这个千年,我们眼看着全球变暖这一幕开始上演。我们目睹2014年的全球气温创下新纪录,接着又被2015年和2016年一再打破。我们看着北极的海冰以创纪录的速度消失,并测量到了南极洲大冰盖的提早破裂。我们能够记录到旱灾、洪水和野火出现令人担忧的增加趋势,也能够把它们和我们排进大气的大量温室气体直接联系起来。这是地球历史上规模最大的科学方法起作用的例子。假设和怀疑持续带来争辩,最终我们在保护这个星球最关键的方面上达成了强烈共识。全世界理性的人都明白。就像《彭博商业周刊》(Bloomberg Businessweek)在飓风“桑迪”(Sandy)席卷华尔街之后那一周在其整个封面所写的那样,“是全球变暖,笨蛋。”

But now President Trump (and 22 Republican senators who wrote a letter asking him to take the step) is betting that all of that is wrong. Mr. Trump famously called global warming a hoax during the campaign, and with this decision he’s wagering that he was actually right — he’s calling his own bluff. No line of argument in the physical world supports his claim, and no credible authority backs him, not here and not abroad. It’s telling that he simultaneously wants to cut the funding for the satellites and ocean buoys that monitor our degrading climate. Every piece of data they collect makes clear his foolishness. He’s simply insisting that physics isn’t real.

但现在,特朗普总统(和那22名写信敦促他这么做的共和党参议员)打赌这一切都是错误的。众所周知,特朗普在竞选期间称全球变暖是一场骗局。通过这个决定,他打赌自己其实是对的。他是在用自己的行动证明,他并非虚张声势。现实世界中没有丝毫的理由支持他的说法,也没有可信的权威支持他,国内没有,国外也没有。他想同时削减用于监测我们日渐恶化的气候的卫星和海洋浮标的经费这一点传达了很明确的讯息。它们搜集的每一条数据都清楚地证明了他的愚蠢。而他只是坚持说那些物理特性是不真实的。

But it’s not just science that he’s blowing up. The Paris accord was a high achievement of the diplomatic art, a process much messier than science, and inevitably involving compromise and unseemly concession. Still, after decades of work, the world’s negotiators managed to bring along virtually every nation: the Saudis and the low-lying Marshall Islanders, the Chinese and the Indians. One hundred and ninety-five nations negotiated the Paris accord, including the United States.

但他破坏的不仅仅是科学。巴黎协定是外交艺术取得的巨大成果,这个过程远比科学更混乱,并且必然涉及妥协和有损颜面的让步。但经过长达几十年的努力,全世界的谈判代表最终做到了,让几乎所有国家坐在一起:沙特阿拉伯和地势低洼的马尔绍群岛,中国和印度。195个国家通过谈判达成了巴黎协定,包括美国。

The dysfunctional American political process had already warped the process, of course. The reason Paris is a series of voluntary agreements and not a real treaty is because the world had long since understood that no binding document would ever get two-thirds of the vote in our oil-soaked Senate. And that’s despite the fact that the agreement asks very little of us: President Barack Obama’s mild shift away from coal-fired power and toward higher-mileage cars would have satisfied our obligations.

失衡的美国政治进程已经让这个过程发生了扭曲,这是自然的。巴黎协定是一系列自愿协议,而不是一份真正的条约的原因,正是因为全世界早就明白,任何一份有约束力的文件都不会在我们浸泡在石油中的参议院获得三分之二的赞成票。尽管该协议对我们的要求其实非常低:贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统温和地降低对煤电的依赖并推广油耗更低的汽车之举,本足以履行我们的义务。

Those changes, and similar ones agreed to by other nations, would not have ended global warming. They were too small. But the hope of Paris was that the treaty would send such a strong signal to the world’s governments, and its capital markets, that the targets would become a floor and not a ceiling; that shaken into action by the accord, we would start moving much faster toward renewable energy, maybe even fast enough to begin catching up with the physics of global warming. There are signs that this has been happening: The plummeting price of solar energy just this spring persuaded India to forgo a huge planned expansion of coal plants in favor of more solar panel arrays to catch the sun. China is shutting coal mines as fast as it can build wind turbines.

这些改变,连同其他国家同意做出的类似改变,本来也不会终止全球变暖。它们太小了。但巴黎协定的希望是它会向全世界的政府及其资本市场发出一个非常强烈的信号,这样一来,相关目标就会成为基准而不是天花板,同时我们会在该协定的带动下行动起来,开始朝着可再生能源的方向大大加快速度,甚至可能会快到足以开始赶上全球变暖的物理现象。多个迹象表明,这一幕正在发生:就在今年春天,太阳能价格暴跌让印度放弃了一个庞大的煤电扩张计划,该国转而选择在阳光充足的地方增加太阳能发电厂。中国也正在尽快关闭煤矿,搭建风力涡轮机。

And that’s precisely the moment President Trump chose to make his move, a bid to undercut our best hope for a workable future in a bizarre attempt to restore the past. A few fossil-fuel barons may be pleased (Vladimir Putin likely among them, since his reign rests on the unobstructed development of Russia’s hydrocarbons), but most of the country and the world see this for the disaster it is. Majorities in every single state, red and blue alike, wanted America to stay in the accord.

就在这个时候,特朗普总统选择采取行动,以期在离奇地试图回到过去时,破坏我们对一个可行的未来的最大希望。一些化石燃料巨头也许会感到高兴(其中可能包括弗拉基米尔·普京[Vladimir Putin],因为他的统治依赖俄罗斯碳氢化合物的无障碍开发),但美国和全世界的大部分地区都看穿了此举的本质,认为这是一场灾难。每个州的大多数民众都希望美国留在协定里,不管是红色州,还是蓝色州。

And so we will resist. As the federal government reneges on its commitments, the rest of us will double down on ours. Already cities and states are committing to 100 percent renewable energy. Atlanta was the latest to take the step. We will make sure that every leader who hesitates and waffles on climate will be seen as another Donald Trump, and we will make sure that history will judge that name with the contempt it deserves. Not just because he didn’t take climate change seriously, but also because he didn’t take civilization seriously.

因此,我们会进行反抗。在联邦政府违背自己的承诺时,我们其他人会加倍信守我们的承诺。已经有一些城市和州承诺全部使用可再生能源。最近做出这一承诺的是亚特兰大。我们会确保在气候问题上拿不定主意、犹豫不决的所有领导人,都会被当作另一个唐纳德·特朗普。我们会确保历史将用鄙视的态度评价他,这也是他应得的,不仅因为他不认真对待气候变化,还因为他不认真对待我们的文明。

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表