您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 观点 >> 正文


更新时间:2017-6-4 9:36:14 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Trump’s Stupid and Reckless Climate Decision

People say, if all you have is a hammer, then every problem looks like a nail. We should be so lucky. President Trump has a hammer, but all he’ll use it for is to smash things that others have built, as the world looks on in wonder and in fear. The latest, most troubling example is his decision to obliterate the Paris climate accord: After nearly 200 years of scientific inquiry and over 20 years of patient diplomacy that united every nation save Syria and Nicaragua, we had this afternoon’s big game-show Rose Garden reveal: Count us out.

有人说,如果你只有一把锤子,那么所有问题看上去都像钉子。要是那样就好了。特朗普总统有一把锤子,但他只会在全世界充满讶异和担忧的注视下,用锤子砸毁其他人已经打造好的成果。最近也是最令人不安的例子是他摧毁巴黎气候协定的决策:经过近200年的科学调查和20多年耐心的外交斡旋,除叙利亚和尼加拉瓜外的所有国家都团结起来了,但今天下午,我们却在玫瑰园(Rose Garden)迎来了一线综艺节目式的谜底揭晓:别把我们算上。

It’s a stupid and reckless decision — our nation’s dumbest act since launching the war in Iraq. But it’s not stupid and reckless in the normal way. Instead, it amounts to a thorough repudiation of two of the civilizing forces on our planet: diplomacy and science. It undercuts our civilization’s chances of surviving global warming, but it also undercuts our civilization itself, since that civilization rests in large measure on those two forces.


Science first. Since the early 1800s we’ve been slowly but surely figuring out the mystery of how our climate operates — why our planet is warmer than it should be, given its distance from the sun. From Fourier to Foote and Tyndall, from Arrhenius to Revelle and Suess and Keeling, researchers have worked out the role that carbon dioxide and other greenhouse gases play in regulating temperature. By the 1980s, as supercomputers let us model the climate with ever greater power, we came to understand our possible fate. Those big brains, just in time, gave us the warning we required.


And now, in this millennium, we’ve watched the warning start to play out. We’ve seen 2014 set a new global temperature record, which was smashed in 2015 and smashed again in 2016. We’ve watched Arctic sea ice vanish at a record pace and measured the early disintegration of Antarctica’s great ice sheets. We’ve been able to record alarming increases in drought and flood and wildfire, and we’ve been able to link them directly to the greenhouse gases we’ve poured into the atmosphere. This is the largest-scale example in the planet’s history of the scientific method in operation, the continuing dialectic between hypothesis and skepticism that arrived eventually at a strong consensus about the most critical aspects of our planet’s maintenance. Rational people the world around understand. As Bloomberg Businessweek blazoned across its cover the week after Hurricane Sandy smashed into Wall Street, “It’s Global Warming, Stupid.”

现在,在这个千年,我们眼看着全球变暖这一幕开始上演。我们目睹2014年的全球气温创下新纪录,接着又被2015年和2016年一再打破。我们看着北极的海冰以创纪录的速度消失,并测量到了南极洲大冰盖的提早破裂。我们能够记录到旱灾、洪水和野火出现令人担忧的增加趋势,也能够把它们和我们排进大气的大量温室气体直接联系起来。这是地球历史上规模最大的科学方法起作用的例子。假设和怀疑持续带来争辩,最终我们在保护这个星球最关键的方面上达成了强烈共识。全世界理性的人都明白。就像《彭博商业周刊》(Bloomberg Businessweek)在飓风“桑迪”(Sandy)席卷华尔街之后那一周在其整个封面所写的那样,“是全球变暖,笨蛋。”

But now President Trump (and 22 Republican senators who wrote a letter asking him to take the step) is betting that all of that is wrong. Mr. Trump famously called global warming a hoax during the campaign, and with this decision he’s wagering that he was actually right — he’s calling his own bluff. No line of argument in the physical world supports his claim, and no credible authority backs him, not here and not abroad. It’s telling that he simultaneously wants to cut the funding for the satellites and ocean buoys that monitor our degrading climate. Every piece of data they collect makes clear his foolishness. He’s simply insisting that physics isn’t real.


But it’s not just science that he’s blowing up. The Paris accord was a high achievement of the diplomatic art, a process much messier than science, and inevitably involving compromise and unseemly concession. Still, after decades of work, the world’s negotiators managed to bring along virtually every nation: the Saudis and the low-lying Marshall Islanders, the Chinese and the Indians. One hundred and ninety-five nations negotiated the Paris accord, including the United States.


The dysfunctional American political process had already warped the process, of course. The reason Paris is a series of voluntary agreements and not a real treaty is because the world had long since understood that no binding document would ever get two-thirds of the vote in our oil-soaked Senate. And that’s despite the fact that the agreement asks very little of us: President Barack Obama’s mild shift away from coal-fired power and toward higher-mileage cars would have satisfied our obligations.

失衡的美国政治进程已经让这个过程发生了扭曲,这是自然的。巴黎协定是一系列自愿协议,而不是一份真正的条约的原因,正是因为全世界早就明白,任何一份有约束力的文件都不会在我们浸泡在石油中的参议院获得三分之二的赞成票。尽管该协议对我们的要求其实非常低:贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)总统温和地降低对煤电的依赖并推广油耗更低的汽车之举,本足以履行我们的义务。

Those changes, and similar ones agreed to by other nations, would not have ended global warming. They were too small. But the hope of Paris was that the treaty would send such a strong signal to the world’s governments, and its capital markets, that the targets would become a floor and not a ceiling; that shaken into action by the accord, we would start moving much faster toward renewable energy, maybe even fast enough to begin catching up with the physics of global warming. There are signs that this has been happening: The plummeting price of solar energy just this spring persuaded India to forgo a huge planned expansion of coal plants in favor of more solar panel arrays to catch the sun. China is shutting coal mines as fast as it can build wind turbines.


And that’s precisely the moment President Trump chose to make his move, a bid to undercut our best hope for a workable future in a bizarre attempt to restore the past. A few fossil-fuel barons may be pleased (Vladimir Putin likely among them, since his reign rests on the unobstructed development of Russia’s hydrocarbons), but most of the country and the world see this for the disaster it is. Majorities in every single state, red and blue alike, wanted America to stay in the accord.

就在这个时候,特朗普总统选择采取行动,以期在离奇地试图回到过去时,破坏我们对一个可行的未来的最大希望。一些化石燃料巨头也许会感到高兴(其中可能包括弗拉基米尔·普京[Vladimir Putin],因为他的统治依赖俄罗斯碳氢化合物的无障碍开发),但美国和全世界的大部分地区都看穿了此举的本质,认为这是一场灾难。每个州的大多数民众都希望美国留在协定里,不管是红色州,还是蓝色州。

And so we will resist. As the federal government reneges on its commitments, the rest of us will double down on ours. Already cities and states are committing to 100 percent renewable energy. Atlanta was the latest to take the step. We will make sure that every leader who hesitates and waffles on climate will be seen as another Donald Trump, and we will make sure that history will judge that name with the contempt it deserves. Not just because he didn’t take climate change seriously, but also because he didn’t take civilization seriously.