您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

假如美国退出,巴黎气候协定命运如何?

更新时间:2017-6-2 11:41:28 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Q. & A.: The Paris Climate Accord
假如美国退出,巴黎气候协定命运如何?

President Donald Trump is said to be considering withdrawing the United States from the Paris climate agreement, a landmark accord reached in 2015 between 195 countries that seeks to avoid some of the worst effects of climate change by curbing global greenhouse gas emissions.

据说,唐纳德·特朗普总统正在考虑让美国退出巴黎气候协定,这是2015年195个国家达成的标志性协定,旨在遏制全球温室气体排放,避免气候变化造成的一些最严重后果。

The White House says it has not yet reached a final decision on Paris, and hundreds of corporations and world leaders are lobbying the United States to stay in the pact. Within the administration, some senior officials, including Secretary of State Rex Tillerson, have warned the president that the diplomatic repercussions from leaving could be severe.

白宫表示,它尚未就巴黎协定做出最终决定,成百上千个公司和一些国家领导人正在游说美国不要退出该协定。在特朗普政府内部,包括国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)在内的一些高级官员已经提醒总统,退出该协定可能造成严重的外交后果。

A U.S. withdrawal would not scuttle the Paris accord, but it could seriously weaken global efforts to avoid drastic climate change. Here’s a primer on how the Paris agreement works — and what could happen if the United States leaves.

美国的退出不会破坏巴黎协定,但会严重削弱避免重大气候变化的全球努力。下面是一份关于巴黎气候协定运作方式的入门资料,以及如果美国退出,可能会发生的情况。

What does the Paris climate deal actually do?

巴黎气候协定到底是做什么的?

A: Under the Paris agreement, every country submitted an individual plan to tackle its greenhouse gas emissions and then agreed to meet regularly to review their progress and prod one another to ratchet up their efforts as the years went by.

答:按照巴黎协定,每个国家提交自己应对温室气体排放的计划,然后定期会面,评估进展,相互敦促,逐步加大努力。

Unlike its predecessor treaty, the Kyoto Protocol, the Paris deal was intended to be nonbinding, so that countries could tailor their climate plans to their domestic situations and alter them as circumstances changed. There are no penalties for falling short of declared targets. The hope was that, through peer pressure and diplomacy, these policies would be strengthened over time.

和之前的《京都议定书》(Kyoto Protocol)不同,巴黎协定是没有约束力的,所以每个国家可以根据国内情况制订自己的计划,并根据情况变化作出调整。如果没有实现宣称的目标,也不会受到惩罚。协定是希望通过其他国家的压力和外交手段逐步加强这些政策。

Under the deal, the Obama administration pledged to cut domestic greenhouse gas emissions 26 to 28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 as well as to commit up to $3 billion in aid for poorer countries by 2020. (The United States has delivered $1 billion to date.) China vowed that its emissions would peak around 2030 and that it would get about 20 percent of its electricity from carbon-free sources by then. India would continue to reduce its carbon intensity, or CO2 output per unit of economic activity, in line with historical levels.

按照该协定,奥巴马政府承诺到2025年,将国内温室气体排放量减少到低于2005年排放量的26%至28%,并承诺在2020年之前,向较贫困国家捐助30亿美元(到目前为止,美国已经捐了10亿美元)。中国预测本国的温室气体排放量将在2030年左右达到最高值,它承诺,届时,大约20%的电能将来自无碳能源。印度将根据其历史水平逐渐降低碳强度,也就是每单位经济活动的二氧化碳排放量。

While the current pledges would not prevent global temperatures from rising more than 2 degrees Celsius above preindustrial levels, the threshold deemed unacceptably risky, there is some evidence that the Paris deal’s “soft diplomacy” is nudging countries toward greater action. A recent study from the Grantham Research Institute found that the mere existence of the accord had prodded dozens of countries to enact new clean-energy laws.

虽然目前的这些承诺不足以阻止全球温度比工业化前水平上升2℃以上(上升2℃被视为无法接受的危险上限),但有些证据表明,巴黎协定的“软外交”促使很多国家采取了更多行动。格兰瑟姆研究院(Grantham Research Institute)最近的一项研究发现,单是这项协定的存在就已促使数十个国家颁布了新的清洁能源法律。

How would the United States withdraw from Paris?

美国将如何退出巴黎协定?

A: Because the deal is nonbinding, there are no penalties if the United States pulls out.

答:因为该协定没有约束力,所以如果美国退出,不会受到惩罚。

The Trump administration can invoke the accord’s formal withdrawal mechanism, which takes four years — though U.S. officials could stop participating in any future climate talks immediately. A future administration could, if it chose, rejoin.

特朗普政府可以执行该协定的正式退出机制,那将花费四年时间,不过美国官员可以立刻停止参与未来的任何气候对话。如果未来的政府愿意,可以再次加入。

More radically, the Trump administration could withdraw from the underlying United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, signaling a withdrawal from all U.N.-sponsored climate discussions. It is not yet clear which option the Trump administration would choose, if it decides to leave.

更激进的方式是,特朗普政府可以退出更基本的《联合国气候变化框架公约》(United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change),表明自己要退出联合国主持下的所有气候讨论。尚不清楚如果特朗普政府决定退出的话,会选择哪种做法。

If the United States does leave, it would join Syria and Nicaragua as the only two countries not participating in the accord.

如果美国退出,它将加入叙利亚和尼加拉瓜的行列,成为世界上仅有的三个未加入该协定的国家之一。

The United States could also face serious diplomatic repercussions for leaving. Europe, China and other countries may threaten to withhold cooperation on issues the Trump administration cares about. In a more extreme case, other countries could decide to impose carbon tariffs on the United States.

美国可能也会面临退出造成的严重外交后果。欧洲、中国以及其他国家可能会威胁终止在特朗普政府关心的一些问题上的合作。在更极端的情况下,其他国家可能决定对美国征收碳关税。

What would this mean for the fight against climate change?

这对应对气候变化意味着什么?

A: Withdrawal by the United States could seriously undermine global efforts to tackle global warming — but much will depend on how other countries react.

答:美国的退出会严重削弱全世界对抗全球变暖的努力,但在很大程度上将取决于其他国家会做何反应。

Leaders in Europe, China and India have insisted that they will carry on tackling global warming without the United States. But the precise shape of future climate talks remains an open question.

欧洲、中国和印度的领导人表示,美国退出后,他们将继续对抗全球变暖。不过,未来气候对话的确切情形依然无从判断。

One possibility is that, with the world’s second-largest emitter pulling out, other countries may feel inclined to relax their own plans to curb greenhouse gases. “Even in places like Europe, you have industry groups worried about competitiveness,” said David G. Victor, a professor of international relations at the University of California, San Diego. A U.S. withdrawal, he notes, “makes the politics in other countries that much harder.”

一种可能是,全球第二大排放国退出之后,其他国家可能会倾向于放松遏制温室气体排放的计划。“即便在欧洲这样的地方,有些行业组织也担心竞争问题,”加州大学圣迭戈分校(University of California, San Diego)的国际关系教授戴维·G·维克多(David G. Victor)说。他指出,美国退出“会让其他国家的相关政治变得更加困难”。

Developing countries like India, Indonesia, and the Philippines may be more reluctant to tackle their emissions if the United States pulls back on promised aid to help them adjust to the worst effects of climate change.

如果美国收回承诺,不再帮助印度、印度尼西亚和菲律宾等发展中国家为气候变化最恶劣的影响做出调整,那么,这些国家可能更不愿意应对排放问题。

Not everyone is so pessimistic, however. Luke Kemp, a climate policy expert at Australian National University, suggests that other countries may choose to redouble their pursuit of cleaner energy in the face of recalcitrance from the Trump administration. “In the short term you could see a galvanizing effect,” he said.

不过,不是所有的人都这么悲观。澳大利亚国立大学(Australian National University)的气候政策专家卢克·肯普(Luke Kemp)表示,面对特朗普政府的顽固,其他国家可能会选择加强对更清洁能源的追求。“在短期内,你可能会看到一种激励效果,”他说。

China, the world’s largest emitter, is poised to assume a dominant role in future talks. The country is investing heavily in wind, solar and nuclear power in an attempt to level off its once-insatiable coal consumption. But it is unclear how far China’s leaders will go in pressuring other countries to raise their ambitions.

全球最大排放国中国准备在未来的对话中扮演主导角色。该国正在风能、太阳能与核能上大量投资,以减少一度无法得到满足的煤炭消费。但是,中国领导人在迫使其他国家提高标准方面究竟会走得多远,目前尚不清楚。

But the rest of the world will have a lot of heavy lifting ahead of it: Current pledges, when added up, put the planet on pace to warm 3 degrees Celsius or more above preindustrial levels, an outcome with a far greater risk of destabilizing ice sheets in Greenland and Antarctica, higher levels of sea-level rise, more destructive heat waves and droughts, and the loss of vital ecosystems like coral reefs.

不过,世界其他国家还面临着重任:目前的承诺累加起来依然会让地球的温度朝着比工业化前上升3℃或更高的方向发展,这会极大增加以下风险:格陵兰岛和南极洲的冰原破裂,海平面上升,出现更多破坏性热浪和干旱,失去珊瑚礁等重要生态系统。

One final variable: A future U.S. administration could always change course on climate policy — and even try to rejoin the agreement once Trump is out of office.

最后一个可能的变数:未来的美国政府始终可以改变气候政策路线,甚至可能尝试在特朗普下台后,立刻重新加入该协定。

“Other countries are constantly judging each other’s positions in the world,” Victor said. “If it looks like this administration is only going to last for four years, you might see other countries continue to push along on climate and not give up on the U.S. just yet.”

“其他国家在不断评价彼此在世界上的位置,”维克多说。“如果这届政府似乎只会维持四年,你可能会看到其他国家继续在气候问题上努力,暂时不会放弃美国。”

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表