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日本经济连续五个季度增长

更新时间:2017-5-18 19:32:08 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Japan’s Economy Is Growing, but Don’t Call It a Hot Streak
日本经济连续五个季度增长

TOKYO — Japan’s economic engine may not exactly be roaring, but there is a definite hum in the air.

东京——日本的经济引擎可能还没有全力咆哮,但清晰的轰鸣声已经在空中飘荡。

The economy grew for a fifth consecutive quarter at the start of 2017, the longest stretch of growth in more than a decade. The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe has been trying for four and a half years to coax the economy into a higher gear. Although Japan’s output is still the world’s third-largest, after the United States and China, consistent growth has been elusive — the result of headwinds like a declining population and deflation.

2017年初,日本经济实现了连续五个季度增长,是十多年来最长的一个增长期。首相安倍晋三的政府已经尝试了四年半的时间,希望把经济提到快速增长档。虽然日本的经济产出仍居世界第三,排在美国和中国之后,但这样持续的增长让人感到难以理解——处在人口下降和通货紧缩等逆境中的日本竟然获得了这样的成果。

What Happened?

究竟发生了什么事?

Japanese gross domestic product increased by 2.2 percent in annualized terms in the three months through March, the government’s Cabinet Office said in a preliminary estimate on Thursday. The economy has now been expanding for a longer period than at any time since 2005-6, when it grew for six quarters in a row.

日本内阁府周四初步估计,在截止3月份的三个月内,日本国内生产总值(GDP)年化增长率为2.2%。自2005到2006年以来,这是经济扩张持续时间最长的一次,2005年那次增长持续了六个季度。

The pace of expansion also accelerated from the previous quarter, and was stronger than economists had expected. Analysts surveyed by news agencies had forecast a growth rate of 1.7 percent, on average.

而且这次的扩张步伐也比上季度加快了,高于经济学家的预期。多家通讯社的调查显示,分析师平均预测增长率为1.7%。

What Is Driving Growth?

是什么在推动经济增长?

Exports have been lifting output since the start of the expansion, and they did so again last quarter. A broadly recovering global economy is helping, as is a weaker yen, which makes Japanese cars, electronic components and other goods more affordable abroad. (Japan’s trade surplus irritates the Trump administration, which has criticized some of the country’s practices.)

从这次增长期的一开始,出口就一直在提振产出,上季度也不例外。除了全球经济的广泛复苏之外,日元疲软也是一个因素,它让日本的汽车、电子元器件和其他商品在国外的价格更加实惠(日本的贸易顺差刺激特朗普政府批评了该国的一些做法)。

The domestic side of the economy has been shakier, with spending by consumers and businesses mostly weak and inconsistent. But in the latest quarter, consumption and business investment both rose.

从国内的角度来看,日本经济没有这么亮眼,因为消费者和企业的支出相当疲弱,缺乏连贯性。但在最近一个季度,消费和商业投资都有所增长。

Is the Economy on a Hot Streak?

日本经济在快马加鞭吗?

A warm one, certainly. Output grew 1 percent in all of 2016 — not exactly China-fast, but about twice what economists estimate Japan should be able to achieve given its shrinking pool of workers and consumers. For the first few years after Mr. Abe came to office, in 2012, on a promise to kick-start growth, the economy lurched between expansion and contraction. Now it appears to have found a more stable groove.

小步跑是肯定的。经济产出在2016年全年增长了1%——没有中国那么快,但仍比经济学家基于劳动力和消费者的萎缩状况所做的估计高出一倍。安倍晋三2012年上任的时候就承诺要增长竞争,在最初几年里,日本经济时而扩张时而收缩。但现在似乎进入了一个更加稳定的阶段。

Is ‘Abenomics’ Succeeding?

“安倍经济学”成功了吗?

The government and the central bank have been pouring money into the economy, and there’s little doubt that those moves have helped lift growth.

政府和中央银行一直在向经济注入资金,毫无疑问,这些举措有助于提振经济增长。

But a crucial ingredient is missing: inflation.

但这里面缺少了一个关键因素:通货膨胀。

The big idea behind “Abenomics,” as Mr. Abe’s strategy is known, was to engineer a rise in consumer prices, which would in turn lift corporate profits and workers’ pay. That, the government said, would make the economy grow not only faster but also more consistently. Prices have barely budged, however, leaving many economists speculating that the current streak, though welcome, will fade.

安倍晋三的策略被称为“安倍经济学”,它的原理是推动消费者价格的上涨,从而提高企业利润和工资水平。政府表示,这样做不仅会加快经济增长,而且会提升增长的连贯性。然而,消费者价格几乎没有什么变化,因此许多经济学家猜测,目前的增长趋势虽然令人高兴,但它终将会黯然褪色。

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