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朝鲜试射导弹的新策略:在低调中“大跃进”

更新时间:2017-5-18 11:01:59 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea Missile Test Appears to Tiptoe Over a U.S. Tripwire
朝鲜试射导弹的新策略:在低调中“大跃进”

For months, Washington has been bracing for North Korea to test an intercontinental ballistic missile, waiting to see how close it could get to the United States and how aggressively President Trump should react.

数月来,华盛顿一直在为朝鲜试射洲际弹道导弹做准备,等着看它可以到达离美国多近的地方,以及特朗普总统应该做出多么激烈的反应。

Now, it looks as if Kim Jong-un, the North’s 33-year-old leader, has a different plan — one intended to improve his ability to strike the United States without setting off an American military response.

现在,朝鲜33岁的领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)的计划看上去似乎变了,它的目的成了提升他打击美国的能力,又不引起美国的军事回应。

Instead of going for distance, he has stepped up the testing of missiles that fly high into space — on Sunday, one reached a height of more than 1,300 miles — and then plunge down through the atmosphere, mimicking the kind of fiery re-entries a nuclear warhead would undergo if fired over a much longer distance. Instead, the payload lands in waters a few hundred miles or so from North Korea’s coast.

他没有追求距离,而是加大了对飞入高空——周日,一枚导弹达到了超过1300英里(约合2100公里)的高度——然后再穿过大气层坠向地面的导弹的试验力度。这是在模仿核弹头在发射距离大大增加后会经历的那种猛烈的再入。弹头落入了距离朝鲜海岸大约几百英里的水域。

“They can simulate an ICBM warhead on this kind of trajectory,” David C. Wright, a senior scientist at the Union of Concerned Scientists, a private group in Cambridge, Mass., said in an interview. “It’s a kind of steppingstone.”

“他们可以在这种轨道上模拟洲际弹道导弹弹头,”马萨诸塞州坎布里奇的私人团体关注全球问题科学家联盟(Union of Concerned Scientists)的高级科学家戴维·C·赖特(David C. Wright)在接受采访时说。“这是一种踏脚石。”

John Schilling, an aerospace engineer and an expert on North Korea’s missile program, called this relatively low-key experimentation a possible hedge against a military response. Sunday’s unobtrusive test, he said, could nonetheless “represent a substantial advance” that might bring the debut of a working intercontinental missile closer than previously estimated.

航空航天工程师、研究朝鲜导弹计划的专家约翰·席林(John Schilling)称,这种相对低调的试验可能可以避免引起军事回应。但他说,周日这次并不引人注目的试验可能“代表着一个重大进展”,这个进展也许会让可用的洲际导弹比之前估计的更早面世。

The best guess of nongovernmental experts puts an ICBM debut at roughly 2020. But military and intelligence officials regularly say the lack of a proven capability is different from the absence of a long-range threat to the continental United States, and they say commanders have to assume the worst given the North’s progress to date.

对洲际弹道导弹的首次亮相时间,非政府专家认为可能性最大的是在2020年左右。但军方和情报界官员的常见论调是,缺乏经过证实的能力,不等同于没有对美国本土构成远程威胁。他们说,鉴于朝鲜目前取得的进展,指挥官必须做最坏的打算。

“We think they’ve had enough time to mate a nuclear weapon to a missile,” Michael Morell, a Central Intelligence Agency deputy director in the Obama administration, recently told “CBS This Morning.” “So the threat is now.”

“我们认为他们已经有了足够的时间让核武器和导弹相匹配,”奥巴马政府时期的中央情报局(Central Intelligence Agency)副局长迈克尔·莫雷尔(Michael Morell)最近对《CBS今晨》(CBS This Morning)节目说。“因此,威胁已经存在了。”

Analysts said Sunday’s test flight, if conducted on a normal rather than a high trajectory, would have traveled about 3,000 miles. That is well beyond the sprawling American base at Guam, some 2,200 miles away. More important, it would make the flight distance the longest to date for one of the North’s military missiles and thus represent a major technical success for the beleaguered nation.

分析人士称,如果是在正常而不是高空轨道上进行的,周日的试飞距离应该在3000英里左右。这远远超过了美国设在大约2200英里外的关岛的庞大基地。更重要的是,它会让这个距离成为朝鲜军事导弹迄今为止最远的飞行距离,从而代表了这个处境困难的国家在技术上取得了重大成功。

On Monday, the North’s official news agency said Mr. Kim hugged rocket officials after Sunday’s successful test flight. The isolated nation has recently experienced a large number of failures in its rocket fleets; last October it began an investigation into whether American sabotage was making its missiles explode, veer off course and disintegrate in midair.

周一,朝鲜官方通讯社称,在周日的试验取得成功后,金正恩拥抱了负责火箭事务的官员。最近,这个被孤立的国家在其火箭计划上遭遇大量失败。去年10月,朝鲜开始调查是不是美国的故意破坏导致其导弹在空中爆炸、偏离轨道和解体。

The news agency said the missile that was launched Sunday flew to a very high altitude to avoid striking “neighboring countries.” The flight also stressed the mock warhead “under the worst re-entry situation,” it added.

该通讯社称,周日发射的那枚导弹飞到了非常高的高度,以避免打到“邻国”。它接着表示,这次飞行还“在最恶劣的再入条件下”给模拟弹头施加压力。

Charles P. Vick, an expert on the North’s missiles at GlobalSecurity.org, a private research group in Alexandria, Va., said the United States had a history of using high missile trajectories as a way to intensify the returning warhead’s trial by fire.

设在弗吉尼亚州亚历山德里亚的私人研究组织全球安全组织(GlobalSecurity.org)研究朝鲜导弹的专家查尔斯·P·维克(Charles P. Vick)说,美国有过利用高空导弹轨道再入产生的火焰来加大对返回弹头的考验的经历。

“Going really high,” he said, “gives you a very fast and very brutal re-entry.”

“上到非常高的高度,”他说,“会让再入非常快,非常暴烈。”

Still, he and Dr. Wright of the Union of Concerned Scientists cautioned that the method raised subtle questions that only a longer-range test could answer. For instance, the fiery heating, while as intense as that for an ICBM warhead, was of shorter duration.

但他和关注全球问题科学家联盟的赖特都告诫称,这种方式会引起唯有射程更远的试验才能回答的微妙问题。比如燃烧加热尽管和ICBM弹头一样强烈,但持续时间缩短。

“You learn something but not everything,” Dr. Wright said. He added that in three or four of the North’s recent successful tests, missiles have flown to unusually high altitudes.

“会学到一些东西,但不是全部,”赖特说。他接着表示,在朝鲜最近三四次取得成功的试验中,导弹都飞到了异常高的高度。

Dr. Schilling, the aerospace engineer, posted his comments about the Sunday missile test on 38 North, a website run by the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies that specializes in North Korea analyses.

前述航空航天工程师席林在约翰·霍普金斯大学高级国际问题研究学院(Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies)运营的专门分析朝鲜问题的网站北纬38度(38 North)上发表了对周日导弹试验的评论。

There, he suggested that the successful missile, which the North Koreans call the Hwasong-12, appeared to be a smaller version of the KN-08, a code name for Korea North Type 8. Identified by analysts as an intercontinental ballistic missile, the KN-08 made its debut in a military parade in 2012 and appears to have never undergone a successful flight test.

在该网站上,他说,试验成功的那枚导弹——朝鲜称其为“火星-12”(Hwasong-12)——似乎是缩小版的KN-08。后者是朝鲜8型(Korea North Type 8)的代号。被分析人士指认为洲际弹道导弹的KN-08在2012年的一场阅兵中首次亮相,此前的飞行试验似乎从来没有成功过。

Dr. Schilling said the smaller version appeared in a military parade last month, adding that it had been expected to have roughly the same performance as Sunday’s test flight. “It clearly shares a common heritage” with the larger missile, he wrote.

席林说缩小版的导弹出现在了上月的阅兵中,并接着表示外界先前对其性能的预计,和周日的试飞大致相同。“它显然和”比它大的KN-08“有共同之处”,他写道。

Dr. Schilling said the new missile could represent a replacement for the Musudan, an intermediate-range missile. Last year, most flight tests of the Musudan ended in flames, giving it an overall failure rate of 88 percent. That led the North to suspect that the United States was sabotaging its missile programs.

席林说,新导弹可能代表着中程导弹“舞水端”(Musudan)的替代品。去年,“舞水端”的大部分飞行试验都在一片火海中告终,导致其总的失败率高达88%。这促使朝鲜怀疑美国在故意破坏它的导弹计划。

The longer range of the new missile, Dr. Schilling wrote, might give it better odds of attacking Guam successfully but would fail to change the strategic balance. “There aren’t really any interesting targets” other than the American base, he said.

新型导弹射程更远,席林写道,这也许会增加它成功攻击关岛的几率,但无法改变战略平衡。他说,除美国的这个基地外,“没有任何真正有意义的目标”。

Dr. Schilling called the most interesting feature of the new vehicle its potential for “demonstrating technologies and systems to be used in future ICBMs,” including the KN-08 and a related long-range missile known as the KN-14.

席林称这款新型运载工具最有意思的特征,是它可能“展示了会被用在将来的洲际导弹上的技术和系统”,包括KN-08和相关的远程导弹KN-14。

Repeated flights of the new missile, he wrote, “would allow North Korea to conduct at least some of the testing necessary to develop an operational ICBM, without actually launching ICBMs, particularly if it includes the same rocket engines.”

他写道,反复试飞新型导弹“至少能让朝鲜进行研制可被部署的洲际导弹所必需的部分试验,又不用实际发射洲际导弹,尤其是如果它使用的是同样的火箭发动机的话”。

Over all, Dr. Schilling concluded, it seems possible that North Korea with this single test flight of the new missile might already have moved “closer to an operational ICBM than had been previously estimated.” American cities will not be at risk tomorrow, or any time this year, he added, since some flight testing would still have to be done with a full-scale system.

席林总结说,总体上,凭借这次对新型导弹的试飞,朝鲜似乎“距离一枚可被部署的洲际导弹比之前预计的更近了”。他接着表示,美国的城市明天或是今年任何时候都没有危险,因为还需要对真正大小的导弹进行一些飞行试验。

Still, he added that the novel situation called for a reassessment of the North’s emerging skills in making an intercontinental ballistic missile.

但他接着表示,这种新形势要求重新评估朝鲜最近出现的洲际弹道导弹制造技术。

Dr. Wright agreed that the successful test flight represented a major step forward. “If they’ve got a system with a new engine and can scale that up,” he said, “they’ve got a pretty believable path to an ICBM.”

赖特也认同这次成功的试飞代表着一个重大进步。“如果他们有了一个配备新发动机的系统,并且能够对其进行尺寸升级,”他说,“他们就打开了一条通向洲际导弹的相当可信的路径。”

In political signaling, he added, what the North’s test is telling the West is: “Hey, we’re on our way. If you want to talk, now’s the time to do it.”

就政治信号而言,他接着说,朝鲜这次试验想要告诉西方的是:“嘿,我们在走向成功。如果你们想谈一谈,现在正是时候。”

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