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更新时间:2017-5-16 18:33:02 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

If Americans Can Find North Korea on a Map, They’re More Likely to Prefer Diplomacy

Where is North Korea? Here are guesses from 1,746 adults:


Just 36 percent got it right. Here are the countries they selected:


When asked which policies the United States should pursue regarding North Korea, Americans diverged on their views depending in part on whether they knew where it was.


North Korea launched an intermediate-range ballistic missile on Sunday, and the White House called for “all nations” to put in stronger sanctions.


An experiment led by Kyle Dropp of Morning Consult from April 27-29, conducted at the request of The New York Times, shows that respondents who could correctly identify North Korea tended to view diplomatic and nonmilitary strategies more favorably than those who could not. These strategies included imposing further economic sanctions, increasing pressure on China to influence North Korea and conducting cyberattacks against military targets in North Korea.

应《纽约时报》的要求,莫宁咨询公司(Morning Consult)的凯尔·德罗普(Kyle Dropp)于4月27日至29日开展了一个实验,结果显示,能正确找到朝鲜位置的受访者,往往更加支持外交手段和非军事策略。这些策略包括开展进一步的经济制裁,增强对中国的施压使其影响朝鲜,对朝鲜的军事目标开展网络攻击等。

They also viewed direct military engagement – in particular, sending ground troops – much less favorably than those who failed to locate North Korea.


The largest difference between the groups was the simplest: Those who could find North Korea were much more likely to disagree with the proposition that the United States should do nothing about North Korea.


What drives these differences? Simple partisanship is one possibility. On average, Republicans – and Republican men in particular – were more likely to correctly locate North Korea than Democratic men. And Republicans were more likely to be in favor of almost all the diplomatic solutions posed by the researchers. (Women tended to find North Korea at similar rates, regardless of party.)


Geographic knowledge itself may contribute to an increased appreciation of the complexity of geopolitical events. This finding is consistent with – though not identical to – a similar experiment Mr. Dropp, Joshua D. Kertzer and Thomas Zeitzoff conducted in 2014. They asked Americans to identify Ukraine on a map and asked them whether they supported military intervention. The farther a respondent’s guess was from Ukraine, the researchers found, the more likely he or she was to favor military intervention.

地理知识本身可能有助于增加对地缘政治事件复杂性的认识。这个发现与德罗普、乔舒亚·克策(Joshua D. Kertzer)和托马斯·蔡佐夫(Thomas Zeitzoff)在2014年进行过一个类似(但不完全一样)的实验比较吻合。当时他们要求美国人在地图上指出乌克兰的位置,然后问他们是否支持军事干预。研究人员发现,越是找不到正确位置的受访者,越有可能赞成军事干预。

Which groups were most successful


Education was a major factor in participants’ ability to find North Korea. Those with postgraduate degrees had among the most success; the only ones who did better were people who said they knew someone of Korean ancestry. Those who had visited or been to a foreign country were also much more likely to find North Korea than those who had not.


After the highly educated, the next most successful group was older people: Nearly half of respondents 65 and older found North Korea. The Korean War, which ended in 1953, may be in the memory of today’s older seniors.


Americans’ geography skills remain poor


Americans’ inability to identify countries and places is not new. A Roper survey in 2006 found that, in the midst of the Iraq war, six in 10 young adults could not locate Iraq on a map of the Middle East; about 75 percent could not identify Iran or Israel; and only half could identify New York state.


But how important is this, really?


In “Why Geography Matters,” Harm de Blij wrote that geography is “a superb antidote to isolationism and provincialism,” and argued that “the American public is the geographically most illiterate society of consequence on the planet, at a time when United States power can affect countries and peoples around the world.”

在《为什么地理很重要》(Why Geography Matters)一书中,哈姆·德布莱(Harm de Blij)写道:地理学是“破除孤立主义和地方主义的一剂良药”,他认为,“在美国可以影响到全球各地的国家和公众的时代里,美国公众是全球地理知识最为匮乏的重要社会。”

This spatial illiteracy, geographers say, can leave citizens without a framework to think about foreign policy questions more substantively. “The paucity of geographical knowledge means there is no check on misleading public representations about international matters,” said Alec Murphy, a professor of geography at the University of Oregon.

地理学家说,这种地理文盲程度可能会导致公民缺乏一个框架来更现实地考虑外交政策问题。俄勒冈大学地理学教授亚历克·墨菲(Alec Murphy)说:“缺乏地理知识,意味着对误导性的国际事务的公共表述不加检查。”

While Americans could be better at geography, they cannot be expected to follow every twist and turn of foreign policy. “People don’t invest in policy information, but that’s rational,” said Elizabeth Saunders, a political science professor at George Washington University who studies foreign policy and international relations. Instead of exhaustively researching foreign policy options for a host of nations, Americans are “rationally ignorant,” effectively outsourcing their foreign policy views to elites and the news media.

虽然美国人可以增进地理知识,但你不能指望他们跟上外交政策的每一个迂回曲折。乔治华盛顿大学(George Washington University)研究外交政策和国际关系的政治学教授伊丽莎白·桑德斯(Elizabeth Saunders)说:“美国人没有在政策信息上投入精力,但这么做是理性的。”美国人不会对一系列国家的外交政策进行事无巨细的研究,而是直接将外交政策的观点外包给了精英和新闻媒体,这是一种“理性的无知”。

At the moment, Americans’ views on North Korea are remarkably consistent, regardless of their other political views. A YouGov survey showed North Korea atop a list of 144 countries described as an “enemy”; a Gallup study from about the same time showed North Korea as Americans’ least favorite country.


Americans’ relatively low interest in North Korea is not recroprical. “North Koreans are obsessed with the United States,” wrote Barbara Demick, the former Beijing bureau chief for The Los Angeles Times, in an interview with the New Yorker.

美国人对朝鲜的兴趣相对偏低,但朝鲜人对美国却远非如此。《洛杉矶时报》前北京分社社长芭芭拉·德米克(Barbara Demick)在接受《纽约时报》记者采访时说:“朝鲜人对美国很执迷。”

“They hold the U.S. responsible for the division of the Korean peninsula and seem to believe that U.S. foreign policy since the mid-20th century has revolved around the single-minded goal” of damaging them, she said. “The cruelest thing you can do is tell a North Korean that many Americans couldn’t locate North Korea on a map.”