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特朗普解雇科米,谁是下一个“深喉”?

更新时间:2017-5-14 10:25:15 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

In Firing Comey, Did Trump Unleash the Next Deep Throat?
特朗普解雇科米,谁是下一个“深喉”?

Once again, Donald Trump has done something that no president before him dared to do. This time, he has fired an F.B.I. director engaged in an active and continuing investigation of his own campaign. The decision reflects President Trump’s most autocratic instincts, showcasing his contempt for the independence of federal investigators as well as for the basic search for truth.

唐纳德·特朗普又做了一件之前的总统都不敢做的事。这一次,他将一名对他的竞选活动进行了积极而持续的调查的联邦调查局(FBI)局长解职。这个决定反映出特朗普总统专横的本能,展现出他对联邦调查人员独立性以及对真相基本追求的蔑视。

Given his frequent calls to prosecute Hillary Clinton for using a private email server, the anger he directed at the F.B.I. director, James Comey, for giving her a “free pass,” and reports that he directed Attorney General Jeff Sessions to find a reason to fire Mr. Comey, it’s hard to believe the president’s claim that he made his decision out of concern for Mr. Comey’s harsh treatment of Mrs. Clinton during the campaign.

特朗普频频呼吁以使用私人电子邮件服务器起诉希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton);他为FBI局长詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)“放过”克林顿感到愤怒;而且有报道称,他指示司法部长杰夫·塞申斯(Jeff Sessions)找理由解雇科米。基于以上考虑,很难相信总统的说法,他说做出这个决定是因为,科米在竞选期间对待克林顿的方式过于苛刻。

But if Mr. Trump actually hopes to shut down or limit the F.B.I. investigation into his campaign’s ties to Russia, he may well be disappointed. History suggests that his decision is likely to backfire, producing new leaks and heightened inquiries that will be more difficult to control than he imagines.

但是,如果特朗普真的是希望制止或限制FBI对自己的竞选活动与俄罗斯的关系进行调查,他可能会非常失望。历史表明,他的决定很可能会适得其反,产生新的泄密和更多质询,那将比他想像的更难控制。

President Trump may think he has sent a stern warning to leakers and independent bureaucrats unwilling to toe the White House line. Instead, he may well have incited an internal rebellion.

特朗普总统可能认为这是向不愿与白宫保持同一阵线的泄密者和独立官员发出一个严厉的警告。但事实上,他很可能会引发内部叛乱。

That’s what happened in 1972, when President Richard Nixon suddenly found himself in a position to replace J. Edgar Hoover, the long-serving and infamous F.B.I. director. Suspicious of the F.B.I.’s independence, Nixon tried to appoint a successor who would bring the bureau under White House influence. To his surprise, he set in motion the events that led to the Watergate scandal — and ultimately to his own resignation.

1972年的情况就是这样的。当时,理查德·尼克松总统(Richard Nixon)突然发现自己可以撤换长期担任此职的臭名昭著的FBI局长J·埃德加·胡佛(J. Edgar Hoover)。尼克松不相信FBI的独立性,试图任命一名会将该局置于白宫影响下的继任者。令他意想不到的是,他因此触发了一系列事件,最终导致水门丑闻和自己的辞职。

Nixon did not fire Hoover. Indeed, no president had the chutzpah to fire Hoover, who took office in 1924 under Calvin Coolidge and went on to serve seven other presidents — four Democrats and three more Republicans. According to popular myth, Hoover achieved this astonishingly long tenure by blackmailing politicians with tidbits from his secret files. In truth, though he was hardly above arm-twisting and gossip-mongering, much of his power came from more mundane sources, including his skill at promoting the F.B.I.’s nonpartisan image.

尼克松没有将胡佛撤职。事实上,没有哪位总统有胆量撤胡佛,他于1924年在卡尔文·柯立芝(Calvin Coolidge)任总统期间上任,后来又服务了七任总统——四名民主党总统和三名共和党总统。根据坊间流行的传说,胡佛是利用自己的秘密文件中的桃色轶闻要挟政治人士,才得以获得如此惊人的漫长任期。但实际上,虽然他也可能施过压,散布过流言,但他的大部分权力来自更平凡的来源,包括他宣传FBI无党派形象的技能。

Nixon knew Hoover’s political talents well. He had been working with Hoover since 1948, when the two men collaborated to expose the alleged spy Alger Hiss. Over the years, they had become fast friends and allies, swapping secrets, spending time outside Washington together and exchanging holiday presents. Hoover quietly supported Nixon during the 1968 campaign; one of Hoover’s former deputies, Louis Nichols, served as chief of Nixon campaign security. When Nixon won the election, he vowed to keep Hoover on, despite the fact that the F.B.I. director was well over the mandatory retirement age of 70.

尼克松非常了解胡佛的政治才能。他从1948年起一直与胡佛合作,两人共同揭露了被指控为间谍的阿尔杰·希斯(Alger Hiss)。在那些年里,他们成为忠实的朋友和盟友,交换秘密,在华盛顿之外共度时光,交换节日礼物。在1968年的竞选中,胡佛默默支持尼克松。胡佛的前副手路易斯·尼科尔斯(Louis Nichols)担任尼克松竞选团队的安全主管。尼克松当选后,承诺继续让胡佛担任此职,尽管这位FBI局长已经远远超过70岁的规定退休年龄。

Once in office, however, Nixon discovered that Hoover was not nearly as pliable as he might have hoped. In 1970, when Nixon sought a more aggressive surveillance campaign against antiwar protesters, Hoover put up resistance, arguing that the program was illegal and likely to result in public backlash.

然而,尼克松一上任就发现胡佛完全不像他所希望的那么顺从。1970年,尼克松想对反战抗议者进行更积极的监视,胡佛对此表示反对,认为该计划违法,很可能会引起公众的激烈反弹。

The following year, Hoover and Nixon came into conflict over the investigation of the Pentagon Papers leaker Daniel Ellsberg. Nixon discussed the possibility of firing Hoover, convinced that the director was too old and cautious — and too independent of White House influence. But Nixon worried that Hoover knew too much, and he recognized the political dangers inherent in firing an F.B.I. director.

第二年,胡佛和尼克松在调查五角大楼文件泄露者丹尼尔·埃尔斯伯格(Daniel Ellsberg)的问题上发生了冲突。尼克松讨论过撤换胡佛的可能性,坚信这位局长太老了,太谨慎了,太不受白宫影响了。不过,尼克松担心胡佛知道的太多了,他意识到了撤换FBI局长所隐含的政治危险。

Then Hoover died, of a heart attack, on May 2, 1972. The event made front-page news, and all three television networks carried Hoover’s funeral live. For Nixon, it appeared to be a moment of serendipity — a chance to do what he had long wanted to do. Instead, it turned out to be the beginning of a long national nightmare.

胡佛于1972年5月2日因心脏病发作去世。他去世的消息成了头条新闻,所有三个电视网都直播了他的葬礼。对尼克松来说,这似乎是一个意外收获,他终于有机会做他长久以来一直想做的事情了。然而事实证明,这是一个漫长的国家噩梦的开始。

Nixon made his first mistake almost immediately. Faced with the solemn duty of replacing Hoover, he chose L. Patrick Gray, an assistant attorney general and former Navy man with no F.B.I. experience, to serve as acting director. The Nixon adviser John Ehrlichman articulated the reasons behind the decision in a “talking points” memo for the president soon after Hoover’s death. “Gray’s primary assignment is to consolidate control of the F.B.I.,” Ehrlichman wrote, “making such changes as are necessary to assure its complete loyalty to the administration.” Critics did not need access to such documents to label Gray a White House stooge, put in place to undermine the F.B.I.’s vaunted independence.

尼克松几乎立刻犯了第一个错误。面对选择胡佛继任者的庄严责任,他选择了让没有任何FBI经验的助理司法部长、前海军军官L·帕特里克·格雷(L. Patrick Gray)担任代理局长。尼克松的顾问约翰·埃利希曼(John Ehrlichman)在胡佛死后不久的总统“谈话纪要”备忘录中明确说明了这一决定背后的原因。“格雷的主要任务是巩固对FBI的控制,”埃利希曼写道,“做出这些必要的改变是为了确保它完全忠于政府。”批评人士无需通过这样文件也能看出格雷是白宫的傀儡,把他安插在FBI里是为了破坏该局引以为傲的独立性。

The F.B.I.’s Watergate investigation was not yet underway. But Nixon already believed that control of the F.B.I. would be critical for his political future. He hoped especially that a newly cooperative bureau would help to dam the fast-flowing stream of leaks from the executive branch. Instead, he inspired one of the great leakers of all time: the F.B.I. associate director W. Mark Felt.

当时,FBI的水门调查尚未开始。不过,尼克松已经相信,对FBI的控制将对自己的政治前途至关重要。他特别希望这个新近与他合作的部门能帮忙堵住行政部门快速蔓延的泄露。可事实上,他反而启发了史上最大的泄密者之一:FBI副局长W·马克·费尔特(W. Mark Felt)。

As the historian Max Holland has shown, Felt hoped to become director himself and took Nixon’s decision as a personal affront. Like many career F.B.I. men, Felt also believed in the value of bureau autonomy and resented the president’s attempt to manipulate an independent bureaucracy. In June 1972, when Washington police arrested five men connected to the Nixon campaign during a break-in at Democratic National Committee headquarters in the Watergate office complex, Felt recognized an opportunity. As the journalist Bob Woodward admitted more than a decade ago, Felt turned on Nixon in the summer of 1972, feeding information to The Washington Post as the legendary informer Deep Throat.

正如史学家马克斯·霍兰德(Max Holland)所揭示的那样,费尔特本人想当局长,他将尼克松的决定视为对自己的侮辱。和很多FBI的职业官员一样,费尔特也坚信保持独立的价值,厌恶总统操纵这个独立机构的企图。1972年6月,当华盛顿警方在民主党全国委员会(Democratic National Committee)的总部所在地水门大厦逮捕了五名与尼克松竞选有关的非法入室男子时,费尔特看到了机会。正如记者鲍勃·伍德沃德(Bob Woodward)十多年前承认的,费尔特于1972年夏把矛头指向了尼克松,以传说中的告密者“深喉”(Deep Throat)的身分给《华盛顿邮报》(The Washington Post)提供信息。

Felt’s leaks served in part to counter intense pressure from the White House, which sought to end the F.B.I. investigation. As early as June 23, 1972, Nixon conspired with Chief of Staff H. R. Haldeman to close the F.B.I.’s inquiry — a recorded conversation later known as the “smoking gun tape,” which forced Nixon’s resignation. The F.B.I. proceeded nonetheless, painstakingly digging into Nixon’s campaign and its ties to the Watergate burglars. Felt leaked some of those discoveries to the press, keeping the story alive at a moment when Republicans hoped it would simply disappear.

费尔特泄密的一个目的是对抗白宫的巨大压力,后者试图阻止FBI的调查。早在1972年6月23日,尼克松就与白宫幕僚长H·R·霍尔德曼(H. R. Haldeman)密谋阻止FBI的调查——他们的谈话录音后来被称为“铁证磁带”,尼克松因此被迫辞职。不过,FBI的调查依然没有停止,他们努力调查尼克松的竞选活动以及它与水门大厦闯入者的关系。费尔特把部分发现泄露给了新闻媒体,在共和党人希望它完全消失时,让人们持续关注该事件。

Nixon won re-election in a landslide later that year. Still, the F.B.I. problem refused to go away. In 1973, Nixon nominated Gray to be permanent F.B.I. director, but the confirmation hearings turned into a debacle, fueling rather than calming suspicions of a Watergate cover-up. Gray resigned in disgrace that April, after it was revealed that he’d destroyed Watergate-related files, and was temporarily replaced by yet another acting director. Over the next several months, things got steadily worse for Nixon, as congressional investigations gained momentum and a newly appointed independent prosecutor, Archibald Cox, demanded the release of White House tapes. In October 1973, Nixon fired Cox in an attempt to shut down that investigation — but this, too, failed to stop the rolling disaster of Watergate.

当年年底,尼克松以压倒性胜利获得连任。不过,他依然没有摆脱FBI的调查。1973年,尼克松提名格雷担任FBI的终身局长,但他的提名确认听证会一败涂地,没有平息反而增加了人们对他掩盖水门事件的怀疑。当年4月,在销毁水门事件相关文件的真相败露后,他蒙羞辞职,暂时由另一名代理局长接替。在之后的几个月里,由于国会调查的势头猛涨,新任命的独立检察官阿奇博尔德·考克斯(Archibald Cox)要求公布白宫的录音带,尼克松的处境逐步恶化。1973年10月,尼克松为阻止调查而解雇了考克斯,却未能阻挡水门事件带来的雪崩式灾难。

Many commentators have pointed to Cox’s dismissal as the closest precedent for Mr. Comey’s firing: the last time a president tried to use his executive power to stop an investigation — and failed to get what he wanted. The story of the F.B.I.’s succession crisis raises still more troubling prospects for Mr. Trump in the months ahead. Despite having political skills far superior to President Trump’s, Nixon never managed to “consolidate control of the F.B.I.” in 1972, at the peak of his popularity. To the contrary, his attempts to do so fatally undermined his presidency, setting in motion a political and bureaucratic backlash from which Nixon — indeed, the presidency itself — never fully recovered.

很多评论人士指出,解雇考克斯是与解雇科米最接近的先例:总统试图利用自己的行政权力来阻止调查,却未能如愿。在未来几个月里,FBI的继任危机意味着特朗普将面对更令人不安的前景。尽管尼克松的政治手腕远远胜过特朗普,但他在1972年自己最受欢迎的时期也未能“巩固对FBI的控制”。相反,他的这种企图毁灭性地终结了自己的总统职位,引发了政治和官僚系统的反击,尼克松——以及美国总统这一职位本身——再也没能从这些打击中恢复过来。

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