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与朝鲜重启对话前,文在寅应做好这些事

更新时间:2017-5-11 11:31:23 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

An Agenda for South Korea’s New Leader
与朝鲜重启对话前,文在寅应做好这些事

PUSAN, South Korea — South Koreans elected Moon Jae-in as their new president on Tuesday against a backdrop of heightened United States-North Korean tensions. Yet North Korea did not dominate the campaign. South Korean voters were focused on the economy, corruption and other domestic issues like air quality. Before the voting, only 23 percent of voters said that international security was the most important issue to them.

韩国釜山——在美韩紧张关系加剧的背景下,文在寅(Moon Jae-in)于周二当选韩国总统。然而,这场竞选并没有被朝鲜问题主导。韩国选民关注的是经济、腐败,以及空气质量等国内问题。投票之前,只有23%的选民表示国际安全对他们来说是最重要的议题。

Mr. Moon, a center-left human rights lawyer who will take office as soon as this week following the ouster of former President Park Geun-hye in a corruption scandal, is a dove inclined to start negotiations with the North Korean leader, Kim Jong-un. His candidacy was most likely bolstered by President Trump’s tough talk against the North Korean regime, which is widely seen here as dangerous bluster.

中间偏左派人权律师文在寅是一名鸽派人物,倾向于和朝鲜领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)开启谈判——前总统朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)在一场腐败丑闻中下台后,他最早会于本周上任。特朗普总统对朝鲜政权发出的强硬言论,很可能对他的当选有所帮助,韩国人普遍认为那些言论是危险的虚张声势。

South Korean equanimity toward the North’s threats surprises Westerners, but the South Koreans have lived for decades with Pyongyang’s provocations and, more recently, the nuclear program. Young South Koreans increasingly consider the North Korean menace a fact of life. South Korea’s vulnerability to a devastating attack from the North — Seoul’s northernmost suburbs begin just 20 miles from the demilitarized zone — adds to the sense here that the South should do everything it can to avoid war.

韩国人对朝鲜的威胁表现出的镇静,让西方人士颇感意外,但他们在朝鲜的挑衅以及最近的核项目威胁下已经生活了几十年。年轻的韩国人越来越将韩国面临的威胁看作一种生活的现实。韩国容易遭到朝鲜毁灭性打击的问题——首尔郊区最北部距离非军事区只有20英里——在本国加强了这样一种感觉,即韩国应该尽可能避免战争。

An overture from the incoming Moon administration to start talks with Pyongyang should be made with caution. Engagement with North Korea has a mixed, if not poor, record, and new talks would be more effective if started from a position of strength. It is vital that Mr. Moon pursue policies to decrease his country’s vulnerability to attack, while dangling the possibility of talks. Beijing and Washington are key to any deal with North Korea, but Seoul can do a lot on its own.

在向平壤做出开启谈话的友好姿态时,即将上任的文在寅政府应当小心谨慎。韩国与朝鲜打交道的经历即便不说糟糕,也是好坏参半,如果韩国能从一个强势的地位开启新的谈话,才会更加有效。在制定政策时,文在寅务必要增强韩国抵御攻击的能力,同时表明谈判的可能性。北京和华盛顿对与朝鲜达成任何协议都是十分关键的,但首尔自身也有很多工作可以做。

South Korea spends only 2.6 percent of its gross domestic product on defense. To strengthen Seoul’s negotiating position, Mr. Moon could indicate he will spend more on military preparedness. Civil defense (preparation of the civilian population for North Korean urban strikes), improved pay for conscripts, more intelligence, homegrown missile defense and stronger cyberdefense would help make up for Seoul’s military vulnerabilities.

韩国现在的国防开支只有国内生产总值的2.6%。为巩固首尔在谈判中的位置,文在寅可以表示他将加大在军备方面的支出。民防(让平民为应对朝鲜的城市袭击做准备)、增加应征入伍者的薪资、更多的情报人员、本国的导弹防御系统,以及更强大的网络防卫,都将有助于弥补首尔在军事上的薄弱。

South Korea and Japan could work together much more to show a united front. Such coordination is undercut by persistent tension over the history of Japanese colonialism in Korea. South Korea’s historical concerns with Japan have legitimate roots, but there is too much exaggeration — such as routine suggestions in the media that Japan is remilitarizing with designs on Asia — and not enough recognition that modern Japan is a liberal democracy and a potential ally against the North.

韩国和日本可以展开更多合作,以显示它们是统一的战线。由于日本在韩国的殖民历史造成持续存在的紧张关系,这类合作有所削弱。韩国对日本的历史顾虑是有根据的,但其中也有太多的夸大成分——比如媒体经常提到日本在重整军备,对亚洲有所企图——而没有充分认识到日本是一个民主政体,也是一个对付朝鲜的潜在盟友。

Seoul and Tokyo should agree to avoid separate deals with the North and reject Pyongyang’s efforts to play them against each other. Mr. Moon and his left-wing base are hostile to a recently signed South Korea-Japan intelligence-sharing pact, but he should consider that South Korea benefits from it more than Japan. Military cooperation in adjoining air and sea spaces would be ideal.

首尔和东京应该达成一致,避免与朝鲜单独签署协议,同时抵制平壤让两国鹬蚌相争的企图。文在寅和他的左翼势力对最近签署的日韩情报共享协议持反对态度,但他应该想到,相比日本,韩国可以从中获益更多。如果两国能在毗邻的空域和海域展开军事合作,将会十分理想。

To further improve South Korea’s position, Seoul and Washington need to persuade Beijing to reduce trade with North Korea. Pyongyang is dependent on China for resources and access to the world economy. Cutting off North Korea would slow the nuclear and missile programs, and a reduction in luxury imports would put pressure on the regime elite.

为进一步提高韩国的地位,首尔与华盛顿还需要劝说北京减少与朝鲜的贸易。平壤依赖中国获得资源以及接触世界经济的渠道。切断朝鲜的这条路将能减慢该国核武器与导弹项目的进程,减少朝鲜的奢侈品进口也将给那里的政权精英带来压力。

Given Seoul’s vulnerability to attack, Mr. Moon should also do much more to encourage the decentralization of the country away from the Seoul area. Fifty percent of South Korea’s population lives in the Seoul-Gyeonggi-Incheon corridor — 26 million people in a space roughly the size of Connecticut, directly abutting the border. The South Korean presidential residence is only some 23 miles from the demilitarized zone. It is long overdue for the government to start halting Seoul’s uncontrolled growth.

考虑到首尔容易遭到袭击,文在寅也应该在去中心化方面做更多努力,鼓励韩国人口分散到首尔地区之外的地方。韩国有一半人口居住在首尔-京畿道-仁川一带,即有2600万人生活在一片面积仅相当于美国康涅狄格州且紧邻边境的地区。韩国总统官邸距离非军事区只有23英里远。政府早该开始遏制首尔不受控制的扩张。

Previous efforts to move the capital have failed. President Roh Moo-hyun tried unsuccessfully to move it 75 miles south to Sejong City — though some government ministries and administrative departments have relocated there since 2004, showing decentralization is possible. There are also tax and regulatory incentives in place for South Korea’s conglomerates, like Samsung and Hyundai, to relocate out of Seoul, but many remain centered in, or directly adjacent to, the city.

之前的迁都努力全都未果。卢武铉(Roh Moo-hyun)总统曾试图将首都迁到南部75英里处的世宗市,但没能成功——不过一些政府部委和行政部门自2004年起就搬到了那里,表明去中心化是有可能实现的。政府还给三星(Samsung)和现代(Hyundai)等韩国企业集团提供了税收和监管上的激励,鼓励它们搬到首尔以外的地方,但许多企业依然集中在这个城市或紧邻它的地方。

The South Korean government already intervenes heavily in the economy. Why not do so to encourage more dispersed settlement?

韩国政府已经在大举干预经济。何不同样采取措施,鼓励进一步的人口分散?

South Koreans have seen it all from the boy who cried wolf to the North and know what to expect from a third iteration of the Kim dynasty. What no one knows is what Mr. Trump will tweet next. South Koreans don’t know whether Mr. Trump realizes just how vulnerable their country is to attack. But despite their differences, Mr. Trump and Mr. Moon now have a chance to build on their countries’ decades-long alliance.

不管是“喊狼来了的男孩”还是朝鲜本身,韩国都已经领教过,知道金氏王朝第三代会有何作为。没人知道的是,特朗普接下来会在Twitter上写些什么。韩国人不知道特朗普是否意识到了韩国有多么容易受到袭击。但尽管存在分歧,特朗普和文在寅现在有一个机会,可以巩固两国持续数十年的盟友关系。

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