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希拉里的失败,一场泰坦尼克号式的灾难

更新时间:2017-4-19 11:12:31 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

‘Shattered’ Charts Hillary Clinton’s Course Into the Iceberg
希拉里的失败,一场泰坦尼克号式的灾难

Donald J. Trump’s victory over Hillary Clinton in November came as a shock to the world. Polls, news reports and everything the Clinton campaign was hearing in the final days pointed to her becoming the first female president in American history.

唐纳德·J·特朗普于去年11月击败希拉里·克林顿(Hillary Clinton)的时候,世人颇为震惊。民调、新闻报道以及克林顿竞选团队在大选收尾阶段听到的所有消息都表明,她将成为美国历史上第一位女总统。

In their compelling new book, “Shattered,” the journalists Jonathan Allen and Amie Parnes write that Clinton’s loss suddenly made sense of all the reporting they had been doing for a year and a half — reporting that had turned up all sorts of “foreboding signs” that often seemed at odds, in real time, with indications that Clinton was the favorite to win. Although the Clinton campaign was widely covered, and many autopsies have been conducted in the last several months, the blow-by-blow details in “Shattered” — and the observations made here by campaign and Democratic Party insiders — are nothing less than devastating, sure to dismay not just her supporters but also everyone who cares about the outcome and momentous consequences of the election.

在引入入胜的新书《粉碎》(Shattered)中,记者乔纳森·艾伦(Jonathan Allen)和艾米·帕尼斯(Amie Parnes)写道,克林顿的失败让他们在此前一年半时间里做的所有报道突然合理起来——从当时的形势看克林顿胜算在握,但那些报道呈现的种种“预兆”,看上去常常显得与之相悖。尽管媒体对克林顿的竞选团队进行过大量报道,而且在过去几个月里有过很多事后的分析和检讨,但《粉碎》中的详尽细节——以及竞选团队成员和民主党内部人士在书中发表的言论——仍然极具破坏性,肯定会让她的支持者乃至每一个关注大选结果及其重大后果的人感到沮丧。

In fact, the portrait of the Clinton campaign that emerges from these pages is that of a Titanic-like disaster: an epic fail made up of a series of perverse and often avoidable missteps by an out-of-touch candidate and her strife-ridden staff that turned “a winnable race” into “another iceberg-seeking campaign ship.”

事实上,这本书在为克林顿竞选团队绘制肖像的同时,也在描写一场泰坦尼克式的灾难:一个脱离现实的候选人和内斗不断的幕僚,犯下一系列有悖常情且常常可以避免的错误,把一场有胜算的角逐,变成“又一艘朝着冰山撞去的竞选之船”,铸就了一场史诗般的失败。

It’s the story of a wildly dysfunctional and “spirit-crushing” campaign that embraced a flawed strategy (based on flawed data) and that failed, repeatedly, to correct course. A passive-aggressive campaign that neglected to act on warning flares sent up by Democratic operatives on the ground in crucial swing states, and that ignored the advice of the candidate’s husband, former President Bill Clinton, and other Democratic Party elders, who argued that the campaign needed to work harder to persuade undecided and ambivalent voters (like working-class whites and millennials), instead of focusing so insistently on turning out core supporters.

故事的主角是一个“精神涣散”、机能严重失调的竞选团队,它(基于错误的数据)采取了错误的战略,且多次纠偏失败。这是一场被动攻击型竞选,没能就关键摇摆州的民主党基层工作人员发出的警告做出反应,还忽略了候选人的丈夫、前总统比尔·克林顿(Bill Clinton)等民主党元老的建议,他们认为竞选团队需要更加努力地说服那些尚未下定决心的摇摆不定的选民(比如白人工薪阶层和千禧一代),而非执着于动员核心支持者出来投票。

“Our failure to reach out to white voters, like literally from the New Hampshire primary on, it never changed,” one campaign official is quoted as saying.

“我们没有去争取白人选民,就像在新罕布什尔州的初选中一样,情况始终没有改变,”书中引用了一名竞选工作人员的话。

There was a perfect storm of other factors, of course, that contributed to Clinton’s loss, including Russian meddling in the election to help elect Trump; the controversial decision by the F.B.I. director, James Comey, to send a letter to Congress about Clinton’s emails less than two weeks before Election Day; and the global wave of populist discontent with the status quo (signaled earlier in the year by the British “Brexit” vote) that helped fuel the rise of both Trump and Bernie Sanders. In a recent interview, Clinton added that she believed “misogyny played a role” in her loss.

当然,推动克林顿走向失败的,还有一场由其他因素促成的完美风暴。其中包括:俄罗斯为了帮助特朗普当选而对选举进行干预;联邦调查局局长詹姆斯·科米(James Comey)在离大选日不足两周时做出颇具争议的决定,向国会发出一封与克林顿的邮件有关的信函;不满现状的民粹主义席卷全球(去年早些时候,这种情绪在英国的脱欧投票中便有所体现),为特朗普和伯尼·桑德斯(Bernie Sanders)的崛起推波助澜。克林顿最近接受采访时加了一条:她认为在她的失败中“女性歧视发挥了作用”。

The authors of “Shattered,” however, write that even some of her close friends and advisers think that Clinton “bears the blame for her defeat,” arguing that her actions before the campaign (setting up a private email server, becoming entangled in the Clinton Foundation, giving speeches to Wall Street banks) “hamstrung her own chances so badly that she couldn’t recover,” ensuring that she could not “cast herself as anything but a lifelong insider when so much of the country had lost faith in its institutions.”

不过,《粉碎》的作者在书中说,就连和克林顿关系密切的某些朋友和顾问都觉得她“对自己的失败负有责任”。他们认为她参选前的行为(架设私人电子邮件服务器,和克林顿基金会[Clinton Foundation]牵扯不清,给华尔街银行作演讲)“严重削减了她的机会,令她无法翻身”,使她“在太多美国人对这个国家的制度丧失信心之际”,只能以一个一辈子都是内部人士的形象示人。

Allen and Parnes are the authors of a 2014 book, “H R C,” a largely sympathetic portrait of Clinton’s years as secretary of state, and this book reflects their access to longtime residents of Clinton’s circle. They interviewed more than a hundred sources on background — with the promise that none of the material they gathered would appear before the election — and while it’s clear that some of these people are spinning blame retroactively, many are surprisingly candid about the frustrations they experienced during the campaign.

艾伦和帕尼斯在2014还出过一本名叫《HRC》的书,以总体上正面的笔调描绘了担任国务卿期间的克林顿,而这本书表明他们能接触到一些长期待在克林顿圈子里的人。他们悄悄采访了超过100名消息人士——承诺在大选前不会把搜集到的任何素材公之于众——尽管其中一些人显然是放马后炮推卸责任,但很多人都以令人吃惊的坦率态度,谈及了他们在竞选期间感受到沮丧。

“Shattered” underscores Clinton’s difficulty in articulating a rationale for her campaign (other than that she was not Donald Trump). And it suggests that a tendency to value loyalty over competence resulted in a lumbering, bureaucratic operation in which staff members were reluctant to speak truth to power, and competing tribes sowed “confusion, angst and infighting.”

《粉碎》强调,克林顿难以阐明她的竞选理念(除了她不是唐纳德·特朗普以外)。这本书还说,更为看重忠诚而非能力的倾向,造就了一个笨重而又官僚的团队:工作人员不愿对当权者讲出真相,拉帮结派催生出了“混乱、焦虑和内斗”。

Despite years of post-mortems, the authors observe, Clinton’s management style hadn’t really changed since her 2008 loss of the Democratic nomination to Barack Obama: Her team’s convoluted power structure “encouraged the denizens of Hillaryland to care more about their standing with her, or their future job opportunities, than getting her elected.”

作者表示,尽管做过多年的事后分析和检讨,但自从克林顿在2008年的民主党总统候选人提名争夺战中输给贝拉克·奥巴马(Barack Obama)以后,其管理风格其实一直没变过:她的团队有着复杂的权力结构,“促使‘希拉里乐园’(Hillaryland)里的居民更为关注自己对她有多重要,而非让她当选”。

The campaign frequently spun its wheels in response to crises and urgent appeals from Democrats on both the state and national levels, the authors report. Big speeches were written by committee. “Evolving the core message” remained a continuing struggle. And the Brooklyn campaign headquarters — which would end up outspending Trump’s campaign by nearly 2 to 1 — frustrated coordinators in battleground states like Colorado by penny-pinching and cutting back on television, direct mail and digital advertising.

作者称,面对危机以及民主党人的紧迫诉求,竞选团队常常徒劳无功地作出反应,在州和国家层面都是如此。重要演讲稿是集体创作的成果。在“释放核心讯息”方面一直困难重重。此外,位于布鲁克林的竞选总部——竞选花掉的钱最终比特朗普的团队多出将近一倍——在关键州锱铢必较,削减了电视、直邮和数字广告的费用,让那些地方的协调人颇为沮丧。

As described in “Shattered,” Clinton’s campaign manager, Robby Mook — who centered the Clinton operation on data analytics (information about voters, given to him by number crunchers) as opposed to more old-fashioned methods of polling, knocking on doors and trying to persuade undecideds — made one strategic mistake after another, but was kept on by Clinton, despite her own misgivings.

就像《破碎》所描述的,克林顿的竞选经理罗比·莫克(Robby Mook)——他让克林顿的团队侧重于数据分析(数据统计人员提交给他的关于选民的信息),而非注重更为老派的民调方法,敲门拜访并设法说服未下定决心的选民——犯下一个又一个战略性错误,但克林顿没有将其开掉,尽管她自己也抱有疑虑。

“Mook had made the near-fatal mistakes of underestimating Sanders and investing almost nothing early in the back end of the primary calendar,” Parnes and Allen write, and the campaign seemed to learn little from Clinton’s early struggles. For instance, her loss in the Michigan primary in March highlighted the problems that would pursue her in the general election — populism was on the rise in the Rust Belt, and she was not connecting with working-class white voters — and yet it resulted in few palpable adjustments. Michigan, the authors add, also pointed up Mook’s failure to put enough organizers on the ground, and revealed that his data was a little too rosy, “meaning the campaign didn’t know Bernie was ahead.”

“莫克低估了桑德斯,在初选伊始几乎没做任何投入,犯下了堪称致命的错误,”帕尼斯和艾伦写道,而且竞选团队似乎没有从克林顿早期遭遇的重重困难中汲取什么教训。举个例子,她于去年三月在密歇根州的初选中败北,突显出了一些在大选期间依然会困扰她的问题——民粹主义正在“铁锈地带”(Rust Belt)崛起;她没能笼络白人工薪阶层选民——但却基本没有引发大的调整。作者接着写道,密歇根州的失利还清楚地表明莫克没能往基层派出足够多的组织者,并揭示出他的数据有点太过乐观,“这意味着竞选团队不知道伯尼处于领先地位。”

These problems were not corrected in the race against Trump. Allen and Parnes report that Donna Brazile, the Democratic National Committee chairwoman, was worried in early October about the lack of ground forces in major swing states, and that Mook had “declined to use pollsters to track voter preferences in the final three weeks of the campaign,” despite pleas from advisers in crucial states.

在和特朗普的角逐中,这些问题没能得到纠正。艾伦和帕尼斯称,去年十月初,民主党全国委员会(Democratic National Committee)主席唐娜·布拉吉尔(Donna Brazile)对主要摇摆州缺少基层工作人员,以及莫克——不顾关键州的一些顾问的恳求——“拒绝在最后三周的选战中利用民意调查员来追踪选民的偏好”感到担忧。

After a planned appearance in Green Bay with President Obama was postponed, the authors write, Clinton never set foot in Wisconsin, a key state. In fact, they suggest, the campaign tended to take battleground states like Wisconsin and Michigan (the very states that would help hand the presidency to Trump) for granted until it was too late, and instead looked at expanding the electoral map beyond Democratic-held turf and traditional swing states to places like Arizona.

作者写道,克林顿原定与奥巴马总统一起在绿湾露面,该计划被推迟后,她再未踏足关键州威斯康星。他们表示,事实上,竞选团队倾向于把威斯康星、密歇根等关键州(特朗普后来正是借助这些州当选了总统)视作囊中之物——到后来明白过来已经晚了——却试图把选举地图从民主党控制的地盘以及传统摇摆州,拓展到亚利桑那州之类的地方。

In chronicling these missteps, “Shattered” creates a picture of a shockingly inept campaign hobbled by hubris and unforced errors, and haunted by a sense of self-pity and doom, summed up in one Clinton aide’s mantra throughout the campaign: “We’re not allowed to have nice things.”

在逐次记录上述失误的过程中,《粉碎》勾勒出了一个极度无能的竞选团队的形象,这个团队因为傲慢和非外部因素导致的种种失误而步履维艰,并受困于一种自怜自艾和命中注定之感,那种感觉可以被概括为克林顿的一名助手在竞选期间常说的一句口头禅:“我们与好东西无缘。”

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