您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 国际 >> 正文

朝鲜阅兵式透露给世界什么信息

更新时间:2017-4-19 11:06:37 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

The Hidden Messages in North Korea’s Military Parade
朝鲜阅兵式透露给世界什么信息

North Korea’s military parade on Saturday, more than rallying its citizens, appeared intended to send a message to the rest of us: The country is seeking a program sophisticated enough to fire a guaranteed nuclear retaliation in any war, including one day against the United States.

朝鲜周六的阅兵式,不仅仅是为了长国内人民的志气,似乎也旨在向世界上的其他人发出这样一个信息:朝鲜正在寻求先进的武器计划,足以确保在任何战争中,包括有朝一日与美国进行的战争中,进行核报复。

In 2012, when North Korea unveiled a map with a war plan for nuclear strikes against major American cities, “we all fell out of our chairs laughing,” said Melissa R. Hanham, an analyst at the Middlebury Institute of International Studies in Monterey, Calif. After a series of breakthroughs, including those shown on Saturday, they’re not laughing anymore, Ms. Hanham said: “The more they roll out, the more it looks like that is their actual plan.”

2012年,当朝鲜公布了对一份对美国主要城市进行核打击的战争地图时,“我们都笑得从椅子上掉下来了,”梅利莎·R·韩汉姆(Melissa R. Hanham)说,她是加利福尼亚州明德大学蒙特雷国际研究学院(Middlebury Institute of International Studies)的一名分析师。朝鲜实现了一系列突破、包括周六展示的其中一些之后,分析师们不再笑了,韩汉姆说:“他们推出的东西越多,就越让人看出那的确是他们的实际方案。”

That plan was conveyed in four missile systems that were paraded for the first time, two of which were new altogether. Here are what the systems reveal about North Korea’s rapidly growing capabilities and how the country could use them in a war.

首次展示的四个导弹系统传达了这一方案,其中两个导弹系统是全新的。下面介绍一下这些系统所揭示的朝鲜快速增长的能力,以及朝鲜在战争中可能怎样使用它们。

Long-range missiles highlight a growing ambition to put the United States within reach.

远程导弹突显了将美国置于目标范围之内的雄心壮志。

The video above shows the first of the two-part showstopper: what appear to be two brand-new intercontinental missiles, doubling the number of such systems in North Korea’s arsenal. Both are carried in canisters, which are also new and make the missiles easier to move, hide and launch quickly.

上方的视频显示了这个分为两部分的精彩展示的上半部:看上去像是两个全新的洲际导弹,表明朝鲜军火库中这种系统的数量翻了一番。这两个新东西都装在圆筒里,圆筒也是新的,它们让导弹更容易移动、隐藏和发射。

Some analysts looked for hints of wobble in the video, which could suggest the canisters were empty. Jeffrey Lewis, also of the Middlebury Institute, said it hardly mattered: This was a signal.

一些分析人士在视频中寻找圆筒摇晃的迹象,那可能表明圆筒是空的。蒙特雷研究学院的杰弗里·刘易斯(Jeffrey Lewis)说那关系不大:展示本身就是一个信号。

“This is exactly how they told us the KN-08 was coming,” Mr. Lewis said, referring to an earlier intercontinental missile. “They show you twice on parade, once in the factory and then tests of crucial components.”

“这与他们告诉我们的KN-08会如何出现的方式完全一致,”刘易斯说,他指的是一种早期的洲际导弹。“他们在阅兵中两次向你展示,一次在工厂中展示,然后再对关键部件进行测试。”

Another revelation: The canisters are sized for missiles larger than any known intercontinental ballistic missiles, which are already designed to reach the United States’ east coast (though they have not yet demonstrated that capability).

另一个披露:圆筒的尺寸可装载比任何已知的洲际弹道导弹都大的导弹,已知的导弹已经是为到达美国东海岸设计的(尽管它们的这种能力尚未得到过证实)。

Ms. Hanham suggested the size could be to accommodate multiple warheads, whereas Mr. Lewis said he suspected ambitions for a thermonuclear device. Either capability, they said, was years away, but the conjecture highlighted North Korea’s growing nuclear ambitions.

韩汉姆认为,圆筒的尺寸可能是为了给多个弹头提供空间,而刘易斯则表示,他怀疑那是针对热核设备的野心。他们说,这两种能力仍需要好几年时间才能实现,但两人的猜测本身已突显了朝鲜日益增长的核野心。

Launchers show a goal of assured retaliation against American cities.

发射器显示了有把握地对美国城市进行报复打击的目的。

Ms. Hanham said the truck carrying the second canister, seen above, is a significant step in itself — and resolves a mystery dating to 2012.

韩汉姆说,上面视频中看到的携带第二个圆筒的卡车本身就是一个重要的进步,也解开了一个可追溯到2012年的谜团。

The year before, North Korea imported six enormous truck chassis from China, supposedly for civilian purposes, then, in 2012, converted them into mobile missile launchers. But the launchers were larger than any North Korean missile, raising the question of why the country would risk an incident with Beijing over trucks it did not need.

2011年,朝鲜从中国进口了六辆巨型卡车底盘,当时说是为了民用,而后在2012年,朝鲜将这些卡车底盘改造为可移动的导弹发射器。但这些发射器比朝鲜当时拥有的所有导弹都大,这就提出了一个问题:为什么朝鲜会在它不需要的卡车上,冒下让北京不快的风险。

The trucks resurfaced on Saturday’s parade, finally carrying something that fit them: the second canister, also sized for an ICBM. This suggested North Korea has been working toward the system since at least 2011, hinting that it is more than just a shell.

这些卡车在周六的游行中重新露面,它们终于装载了适合其能力的东西:第二个圆筒,它也是按ICBM的尺寸设计的。这表明,至少自从2011年以来,朝鲜就一直在朝着这个武器系统的方向努力,一直在暗示它不只是一个空壳。

Mr. Lewis noted the resemblance to a Russian ICBM known as the Topol, which underscores how far North Korea’s program has come in its relatively short life.

刘易斯指出,朝鲜展示的ICBM与名为托波尔(Topol)的俄罗斯系统相似,突显了朝鲜的ICBM计划在相对较短的时间里取得的进展。

George William Herbert, an independent analyst, estimated the diameter as from 6.5 feet to 7.2 feet (2 and 2.2 meters), large enough to “reach at least everywhere in the U.S.”

独立分析师乔治·威廉·赫伯特(George William Herbert)估计武器的直径为6.5英尺到7.2英尺(2到2.2米),大到足以“到达美国任何地方”的程度。

North Korea has few highways on which to hide trailer-pulled missiles. But a truck can enter the country’s many rugged roads, making it much harder for the United States to track and find every missile.

朝鲜几乎没有可以隐藏用拖车运载的导弹的高速公路。但卡车可以在该国许多崎岖的道路上行驶,这就让美国跟踪和找到每一枚导弹变得更加困难。

More than just a truck, it is a sign that North Korea is seeking a guaranteed capability to strike American cities even if the United States fires first.

这不仅仅是卡车,这是一个迹象,表明朝鲜在寻求确保打击美国城市的能力,即使美国首先发射导弹的话。

Off-road launchers could guarantee the ability to retaliate against South Korea and Japan.

越野发射器可以确保针对韩国和日本的报复能力。

Think of this system, which carries a medium-range missile known as the KN-15, as more imminently threatening South Korea and Japan with the sort of retaliation that North Korea is seeking with its new ICBMs.

可以把携带着名为KN-15中程导弹的系统看作是对韩国和日本是更紧迫的威胁,朝鲜可用其对日韩进行报复打击,类似于朝鲜用其新的ICBM所寻求的(对美国的)报复打击。

The vehicle has a track rather than wheels, which allows it to hide along North Korea’s many dirt roads or mountain passes, similar to the truck-mounted ICBM. It uses solid rather than liquid fuel, which means it is always fueled, making it more mobile and able to fire on short notice. And the canister makes the missile more resistant to the elements, which means it can be left outdoors for long stretches.

该运载工具使用轨道,而不是车轮,这让它能在朝鲜的许多土路或山口隐藏,与搭载在卡车上的ICBM类似。KN-15使用固体而不是液体燃料,这意味着它随时都装着燃料,这使它具有更高的可移动性,并能够在短时间内发射。而且,圆筒让导弹更能抵御恶劣天气,这意味着它可以长时间地留在野外。

The KN-15 can only reach North Korea’s neighbors, but unlike the ICBMs has been tested in the field, making it much closer to combat-ready:

KN-15只能到达朝鲜的邻国,但与ICBM不同,KN-15已经做过实地测试,这使该系统更接近战斗准备:

This test, from February, shows how the canister works, by ejecting the missile in a burst of pressurized steam, as well as how the track allows for firing from remote locations where satellites might not know to look.

来自2月份的测试显示了圆筒系统如何工作,它通过压力蒸汽迸发把导弹推出,也显示了轨道能怎样让导弹从卫星可能不知道需要监视的偏远地点发射。

Submarine missiles could possibly bypass missile defense systems.

潜艇上的导弹可能会绕过导弹防御系统。

North Korea’s Navy showcased the KN-11, which is an earlier version of the KN-15 but can be launched by submarine. While North Korea is known to have only one missile submarine, this could greatly increase the threat to South Korea and Japan.

朝鲜海军曾展示过KN-11,那是KN-15的一个早期版本,可以从潜艇上发射。尽管人们知道朝鲜只有一艘导弹潜艇,但这可能会让韩国和日本面临的威胁大大增加。

Though the KN-11 has a range of up to about 620 miles or 1,000 kilometers, a submarine can move it much closer, giving its target less time to respond.

虽然KN-11的射程只有620英里或1000公里,但潜艇可以把它运到更接近目标的地方,让目标地作出应对的时间更少。

It also gives North Korea two ways to potentially bypass South Korea’s new American-supplied missile defense system, the Thaad. First, though the missile defense has only a 120-degree field of view, a submarine allows North Korea to fire from virtually any direction.

潜艇导弹也为朝鲜提供了两种可能绕过韩国新部署的、美国提供的“萨德”导弹防御系统的方法。首先,虽然该导弹防御系统只有120度的视野,但潜艇让朝鲜能从几乎任何方向发射导弹。

Second, North Korea could “loft” the missile, firing it nearly straight up and then back down at a speed that could overwhelm missile defense batteries, Mr. Lewis wrote in a blog post.

第二,朝鲜可以“向高空掷”导弹,几乎直线向上发射,然后让其回落,这可让导弹达到一种让导弹防御系统应接不暇的速度,刘易斯在一篇博客中写道。

Parading these weapons proves only North Korea’s ambitions, not its capabilities, the analysts said. But the country, they added, has already taken a number of steps long thought out of reach — steps that, if they continue, could make those ambitions reality.

分析人士说,在阅兵式上展示这些武器,证明的只是朝鲜的野心,而不是其能力。但是,他们补充说,朝鲜已经在人们长久以来认为其做不到的事情上取得了不少进展,如果继续下去,朝鲜的野心很可能会成为现实。

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表