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对付朝鲜缺乏良策,美国不排除对话

更新时间:2017-4-18 19:02:58 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

With Few Options, U.S. Doesn’t Rule Out Talks With North Korea
对付朝鲜缺乏良策,美国不排除对话

BEIJING — North Korea may have refrained from detonating a nuclear device and botched another missile test this weekend, easing tensions in Asia. But it is unclear whether President Trump has found a way around the limited options against North Korea that constrained his predecessors and put it on the path to becoming a nuclear power.

北京——上周末,朝鲜似乎克制住自己没有引爆一个核装置,同时又搞砸了一次导弹试验,这令亚洲的紧张局势有所缓和。不过,目前尚不清楚特朗普总统是否找到法子克服有限的选项来对付朝鲜,他的前任曾为此束手无策,导致朝鲜走上了成为核武强国的道路。

Mr. Trump essentially has three choices: a military strike that could ignite a full-blown war; pressure on China to impose tougher sanctions to persuade the North to change course, an approach that failed for his predecessors; or a deal that could require significant concessions, with no guarantee that North Korea would fulfill its promises.

特朗普大体有三个选择:对朝鲜实施军事打击——有可能引发全面战争;向中国施压,令它实施更严厉的制裁,以说服朝鲜改变航向——他的前任选择了这一策略,但没能取得成功;或者签署一项可能需要做出重大妥协的协议,而且无法保证朝鲜一定会履行承诺。

Thus far, Mr. Trump has tried to signal both resolve and ambiguity, suggesting at various times that he is open to all three options. The question is whether his apparent willingness to consider both war and a deal may be enough carrot and stick to persuade China to change its approach and apply enough pressure to bring the North to the table.

截至目前,特朗普竭力同时释放出坚定和模棱两可的信号,在多个场合表示,他对三种选项都持开放态度。问题是他同时考虑战争和协议的明显意愿是否足以达到软硬兼施的效果,从而说服中国改变自己的方式,施加足够的压力,将朝鲜拉到谈判桌上。

Vice President Mike Pence, during a visit to South Korea, raised the possibility on Monday that the Trump administration could pursue talks. No one should mistake the resolve of the United States, he said, also noting that Washington was seeking security “through peaceable means, through negotiations.” The phrasing was unusual for a senior American official discussing the Korean Peninsula with American troops in the background.

在访问韩国期间,美国副总统迈克·彭斯(Mike Pence)于周一提到了特朗普政府寻求对话的可能性。他表示,所有人都不应误判美国的决心,还指出华盛顿在努力“通过和平手段、通过谈判”实现安全。对一名谈论有美军驻扎的朝鲜半岛的美国高层官员而言,这种措辞非同寻常。

Talks have long been China’s preference, and now that Mr. Trump seems to be relying on Beijing to an unprecedented degree, Mr. Pence may have been signaling that the United States was open to negotiations. China’s chief objective is to get talks — of any kind — started to avoid conflict so close to home.

长久以来,中国一直倾向于进行对话,如今特朗普对北京的依赖似乎达到了前所未有的程度,彭斯或许是在释放美国愿意进行谈判的信号。中国的首要目标是展开对话——不管以何种方式——以免在距离本土这么近的地方发生冲突。

War on the peninsula is a nightmare for China that could lead to at least one million casualties, according to some estimates, ravage North and South Korea and set back Beijing’s climb to global pre-eminence.

对中国来说,朝鲜半岛爆发战争是一场噩梦。据估计,这至少会导致100万人伤亡,会摧毁朝鲜与韩国,也会阻碍中国跻身全球领先国家的进程。

In his most flexible language yet, China’s foreign minister, Wang Yi, appealed again last Friday for negotiations. “As long as it is a talk, China is willing to support it: either it is formal or informal, one-track or dual-track, bilateral, trilateral or quadrilateral,” Mr. Wang said in Beijing. “We are also willing to stay open-minded and accept the good advice from others.”

上周五,中国外交部长王毅以他迄今为止最灵活的措辞,再一次呼吁进行谈判。“只要是对话,不管是一轨的、二轨的、或者是三方四方的,中方都愿意支持,”王毅在北京表示。“我们也愿意以开放的态度,接受各方提出的倡议。”

North Korea’s leader, Kim Jong-un, already has enough fissile material for 20 to 25 nuclear weapons, and may be able to produce sufficient fissile materials — plutonium and highly enriched uranium — for six to seven new weapons a year, according to Siegfried S. Hecker, a former director of the Los Alamos National Laboratory.

前洛斯阿拉莫斯国家实验室(Los Alamos National Laboratory)主任西格夫里·S·赫克(Siegfried S. Hecker)表示,朝鲜领导人金正恩已经拥有足以制造20至25枚核武器的裂变材料,或许还能生产足够多的裂变材料——钚和高浓缩铀——每年制造出六至七枚新武器。

Should the North conduct its sixth nuclear test, it would move closer to having a hydrogen bomb, or a two-stage thermonuclear weapon, Mr. Hecker said, with up to a thousand times more power than the Hiroshima-style weapons Mr. Kim has detonated so far.

赫克表示,如果朝鲜进行第六次核试验,将距离拥有氢弹,或者说二段热核武器更近了,后者的破坏力将是金正恩目前引爆的广岛式武器的一千倍。

With that level of firepower, Mr. Hecker said he worried about a “nuclear catastrophe” on the peninsula resulting from either “escalation of military activities” or poor security around the North’s nuclear arsenal. Talks are needed immediately, he said, just to deal with the immediate threat to Japan and South Korea, both American allies.

赫克还提到,有了这样的火力,他担心会因为“军事活动升级”或朝鲜核武库安全措施不力,给朝鲜半岛带来“核灾难”。他表示,需要立即展开对话,以便解决美国的两个盟友日本和韩国所遭受的迫在眉睫的威胁。

The logic for diplomacy should be compelling to the Trump administration, Chinese experts say, even as Washington stakes out a policy of “maximum pressure” and has deployed a naval flotilla led by the aircraft carrier Carl Vinson to the coast of the Korean Peninsula.

中方专家表示,正当华盛顿抛出了“最大压力”政策,部署了一支以卡尔文森号航空母舰(Carl Vinson)为首的海军舰队前往朝鲜半岛海岸的时候,这种外交逻辑对特朗普政府而言应该足够有说服力。

In a formal proposal last month, China said that talks should be framed on the basis of North Korea suspending its nuclear testing, and the United States and South Korea suspending their military exercises off the peninsula.

中国在上月提出的正式建议中表示,谈话应该在朝鲜暂停核试验、美韩暂停在朝鲜半岛海岸的军事活动的基础上进行。

Such suggestions were a nonstarter for the Obama administration, which insisted that Pyongyang had to give up its weapons first, and the conditions, as proposed by Mr. Wang last month, were immediately rejected by senior Trump administration officials.

这样的提议对奥巴马政府而言是不可接受的,后者坚称朝鲜必须先放弃核武器,这样的条件——就像王毅上月提议的——马上遭到了特朗普政府高层官员的拒绝。

Washington needs to understand North Korea’s point of view, argues China, which fought on the North’s side against the United States during the Korean War, losing an estimated 300,000 soldiers.

中国提出,华盛顿需要明白朝鲜的想法,后者于朝鲜战争期间在半岛北部与美国作战,损失了约30万士兵。

As nearly 30,000 American troops are stationed in South Korea and frequent American military exercises occur on land and at sea, North Korea has complained that it is threatened by a “ring of American fire.” The United States is still technically at war with the North because a peace treaty was never signed at the end of the Korean War in 1953.

现在有近3万美军驻扎于韩国,在陆地和海上频繁举行军事演习的情况下,朝鲜曾抱怨自己遭到“美国火力圈”的威胁。从技术层面讲,美国和朝鲜依然处在战争状态,因为在1953年朝鲜战争结束时,两国并未签署和平条约。

A major purpose of any new diplomacy would be to halt the North’s nuclear program. The longer the country is allowed to test its weapons, the more lethal they become. Capping the arsenal at its current stage is one of more palatable among several unpalatable options, American and Chinese experts say.

如若采取任何新的外交策略,其主要目的应该是让朝鲜停止其核项目。这个国家被允许进行核实验的时间越长,武器的破坏性就越大。美方和中方的专家表示,让朝鲜核武库在目前的阶段封顶,是几个难以接受的选项中相对能让人接受的一个。

The North’s freedom to conduct underground tests gives it the chance to significantly improve its weapons by using less fissile material per weapon and producing greater explosive yields, said David Albright, a physicist who oversees the Institute for Science and International Security in Washington.

管理华盛顿科学与国际安全研究所(Institute for Science and International Security)的物理学家戴维·奥尔布赖特(David Albright)表示,因为可以自由地进行地下试验,朝鲜有机会大幅改善武器,令每个武器使用更少的裂变材料而产生更大的爆炸当量。

For Mr. Trump — and China and its neighbors — this means a much graver threat than the Obama or Bush administrations faced, Mr. Hecker wrote in The New York Times in January.

赫克在今年1月发表于《纽约时报》一篇文章中写道,对特朗普,以及中国及其邻国而言,这意味着一个比奥巴马或布什政府之前面临的大得多的威胁。

“Pyongyang can most likely already reach all of South Korea, Japan and possibly even some United States targets in the Pacific” with its nuclear weapons, he wrote.

“平壤很有可能已经能将武器发射至韩国、日本全境,甚至触及美国在太平洋的一些目标,”他写道。

“Today the most important point is to avoid the use or detonation of a nuclear device on the Korean Peninsula,” he said this weekend as the world waited to see whether the North would detonate a weapon. “Any use of nuclear devices of any sort on the Korean Peninsula is what I call nuclear catastrophe.”

“如今最重要的问题是避免在朝鲜半岛上使用或引爆核装置,”上周末当整个世界都在等着看朝鲜是否会引爆一枚核武器时,他这样说道。“在朝鲜半岛上以任何方式使用任何类型的核装置,都会带来我所说的核灾难。”

During a visit to South Korea last month, Secretary of State Rex W. Tillerson rejected China’s push for talks as a way of buying time to halt North Korea’s testing program. Negotiations could begin only after the North gave up its weapons, Mr. Tillerson said, a condition that Mr. Pence did not mention on Monday.

在上月访问韩国期间,美国国务卿雷克斯·W·蒂勒森(Rex W. Tillerson)拒绝了中国推动对话的努力,以此为朝鲜停止核项目争取时间。蒂勒森表示,只有在朝鲜放弃核武器之后才能开启谈判,但彭斯周一并没有提及这个条件。

Chinese experts say they detect an opening for negotiations.

中方专家称,他们感觉谈判的窗户露出了一个缝。

“Mr. Trump said something interesting during his campaign — that if necessary he could meet with Kim Jong-un and have a sandwich with him,” said Yang Xiyu, a former diplomat from China who led his country’s delegation to the so-called six-party talks on North Korea in the mid-2000s. “We can see that as a shortcut to solve the issue in a peaceful manner.”

“在竞选期间,特朗普曾说了一些有趣的话——如果有必要,他会和金正恩会面,一起吃三明治,”曾于2000年代中期带领中国代表团参加朝鲜问题六方会谈的前中国外交官杨希雨说。“我们可以把这看作以和平方式解决这一问题的捷径。”

The idea of a meeting between Mr. Trump and Mr. Kim is not so far-fetched, Mr. Yang said.

杨希雨表示,特朗普与金正恩会面的想法没有那么遥不可及。

Before Mr. Kim came to power in 2011, North Korea participated in the six-party talks with China and the United States, but the North always sent an official who lacked the power to decide on substantive issues.

在金正恩于2011年掌权之前,朝鲜曾参与和中国、美国进行的六方会谈,但朝鲜派去的始终是一名没有权力就实质性问题拍板的官员。

Now was the time to remove that obstacle and go to Mr. Kim directly, Mr. Yang said.

杨希雨认为,现在是时候解除障碍,直接和金正恩面谈了。

“There is only one person who has the authority to make a fundamental decision — yes or no — and that’s Kim,” Mr. Yang said.

“只有一个人有权做出一项重大决策——不管答案是肯定还是否定——那个人就是金正恩,”杨希雨说道。

“China can facilitate a three-way dialogue among the top leaders of China, North Korea and the United States so we can at least try the shortcut,” he added.

“中国可以在中国高层领导人、朝鲜和美国之间推动三方对话,这样我们至少可以试试那条捷径是否可行,”他接着说道。

Mr. Kim would have to be persuaded that the United States would not attack the North if he gave up his weapons, Mr. Yang said. The fate of the Libyan leader, Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi, who was driven from power and then killed after he gave up the components of his nuclear weapons program, was foremost in Mr. Kim’s mind, Mr. Yang said.

杨希雨表示,必须说服金正恩相信,如果他交出自己的核武器,美国不会袭击朝鲜。他还提到,遭遇利比亚领导人穆阿迈尔·卡扎菲上校(Col. Muammar el-Qaddafi)的命运是金正恩的最大顾虑,前者在交出自己的核武器项目组件后,被驱逐下台,然后杀死。

Robert Carlin, an American expert who served in the Clinton administration and favors talks as a way to control the North’s weapons development, contends that negotiations based on the premise of the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula are possible.

曾供职于克林顿政府的美国专家罗伯特·卡林(Robert Carlin)赞成将对话当作一种控制朝鲜武器发展的方式,认为在朝鲜半岛无核化的前提下进行对话是有可能实现的。

In 2016, North Korea’s official spokesman, one of the “highest on the North’s ladder of authority,” spoke of denuclearization as “the steadfast will of our party, army and people,” Mr. Carlin wrote in suggesting that the opening should be seized.

2016年,“位于朝鲜权力阶梯最高层”的一位官方发言人曾表示,无核化是“我党、我军和我们的人民坚定不移的意愿”,卡林写道,暗示外界应该抓住这个机会。

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