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中国一季度经济增长小幅加速

更新时间:2017-4-18 10:39:18 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

China’s Economy Grows 6.9%, Continuing Its Steady Rise
中国一季度经济增长小幅加速

SHANGHAI — China’s economic data is usually very predictable. But occasionally there are surprises, though so small that by other countries’ standards they would barely be noticed.

上海——中国的经济数据通常与预测非常相符。但偶尔也有让人吃惊的东西,但程度之小,以至于按照其他国家的标准,几乎不会引起人们的注意。

The country’s economy, the world’s second-largest behind that of the United States, grew 6.9 percent in the first quarter, led by strong expansion at factories, Chinese officials said Monday. The pace marked a slight acceleration in the country’s economic tempo after five consecutive quarters in which China reported growth of either 6.7 percent or 6.8 percent, a remarkable period of stability in the official data.

中国官员周一表示,今年第一季度,中国这个仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体的经济增长了6.9%,主要是工厂出现了强劲扩张。这个增长速度标志着经济增长步伐略有回升,此前中国经济连续五个季度的增长率都是6.7%或6.8%,出现了一个官方数据极为稳定的时期。

Most economists had predicted that China would report 6.8 percent growth again for the first quarter. The slightly higher figure announced on Monday reflected the construction industry’s heavy use of steel, which had been expected to slow, while investment in electronics factories rose as overseas demand strengthened.

大多数经济学家曾预测,今年第一季度中国会再次宣布6.8%的增长率。周一宣布的数字略高一点,反映了建筑行业大量的钢材使用情况,人们曾预测钢材的使用会下降,同时,随着海外需求的加剧,对电子产品工厂的投资也有所增加。

Government data nonetheless holds some warning signs. While a torrent of mortgages issued by the state-controlled banking sector has helped housing sales, the number of housing starts has been rising even faster this spring.

然而,政府数据也包含一些警告。虽然国有银行业发行的大量抵押贷款推动了住房的销售,但今年春季住房开工数量的增长速度甚至更快。

That mismatch will add to the number of unsold homes, at a time when government policy makers are concerned whether the easy availability of mortgages may have already driven housing prices to unaffordable heights. Last month at the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang lowered China’s growth target for this year to “around 6.5 percent or higher, if possible,” suggesting that the government’s economists expected slower growth.

在政府决策者担心抵押贷款太容易获得、也许已经将房价推到了无法承受的高度的时候,上述不匹配的情况将让未售出房屋的数量有所增加。在上个月的全国人大上,中国总理李克强已将中国今年的增长目标降至“6.5%左右,在实际工作中争取更好结果”,这表明政府的经济学家预计增长会放缓。

But for now, Chinese officials are savoring a strong quarter and are quick to attribute it to measures taken last year to close inefficient coal mines and factories and to improve overall productivity.

但就目前而言,中国官员看到的是一个强劲的季度,他们马上把其归功于去年采取的措施,也就是通过关闭低效率的煤矿和工厂来提高整体生产力。

“Since last year with supply-side reforms, the demand-and-supply relationship is obviously improving and enterprises have more confidence,” Mao Shengyong, the spokesman for the National Bureau of Statistics, said at a news conference in Beijing.

国家统计局发言人毛胜勇在北京举行的新闻发布会上说:“去年以来,随着供给侧结构性改革扎实推进,市场的供求关系明显改善,企业的信心也在不断增强。”

There are plenty of reasons not to take the stability, or even slight acceleration, at face value. Economists instead will parse more detailed data on trade, construction and retail spending to divine whether China — the largest single contributor to global growth in recent years — will continue to keep the world economy in gear.

有很多理由让人不能把这些表面数字作为经济保持稳定、甚至略微加速增长的证据。经济学家将会对更详细的贸易、建筑行业和零售开支等数据进行分析,以判断中国是否会继续带动世界经济,近年来,中国一直是全球经济增长的最大单一贡献者。

Yet based on those other data points, the Chinese economy does appear to be steaming along, even as Beijing begins trying to rein in rampant lending. Industrial production increased 7.6 percent in March, the best performance since the end of 2014. Investment and retail sales were also unexpectedly strong.

不过,从那些其他数据来看,中国的经济似乎是在蒸蒸日上,尽管北京已开始试图遏制贷款的疯狂增长。今年3月份的工业增加值增长了7.6%,这是2014年底以来的最好表现。投资和零售业也出人意料地强劲。

The trick will be to continue that growth while also trying to curb China’s dependence on loans by big state-owned banks to large state-owned enterprises, which has allowed these enterprises to go on spending and investing even in money-losing ventures.

问题是如何让增长持续下去,政府正在试图遏制中国经济对大型国有银行向大型国有企业贷款的依赖,贷款让这些企业维持开支和投资,甚至是对亏损企业的投资。

Factories Hum

工厂繁忙

Economists had expected industrial production to maintain in March the same 6.3 percent growth that it showed in January and February and were taken by surprise by Monday’s announcement that production was up 7.6 percent. That means China’s factories are staying busy. Exports are one reason, as the world appears to be showing more appetite for the types of things that China churns out and sends abroad. The Treasury Department’s decision in Washington on Friday not to name China as a currency manipulator, despite a campaign promise by President Trump to do so, removes another possible threat to China’s exports.

经济学家曾预测,3月份的工业增加值增长将保持在1月份和2月份的6.3%,周一公布的7.6%的增长令他们惊讶。这意味着中国的工厂处于繁忙状态。出口是其中一个原因,世界似乎对中国生产和出口的那些东西有了更大的胃口。美国财政部周五在华盛顿做出决定,不把中国列为货币操纵国,尽管特朗普总统在竞选期间曾承诺要那样做,这就消除了对中国出口的另一个可能的威胁。

Consumer electronics have led China’s export boom in recent years and have also been at the center of rising domestic demand. Production continues to surge for devices like smartphones and energy-efficient light-emitting diodes, an alternative to compact fluorescent lights or traditional incandescent bulbs.

近年来,电子消费品带动了中国的出口热潮,也是国内需求上升的关键。智能手机和高能效发光二极管等产品的生产不断增长,发光二极管灯泡是小型荧光灯或传统白炽灯的替代产品。

Liu Rulong, 25, a salesman for Guangzhou Juhong Optoelectronics, a manufacturer of light-emitting diodes based in southeastern China, said that his sales were up 20 percent. He said he was expecting monthly bonuses this spring of $1,160 to $1,450 and that some colleagues earned even more.

广州市巨宏光电有限公司是总部设在中国东南部地区的一家发光二极管生产商,公司销售员、25岁的刘如龙(音)表示,自己的销售额增长了20%。他说,他预计今年春季的月度奖金在1160至1450美元之间,有些同事挣得更多。

“I’m still in the middle — some salesmen did far better than me,” Mr. Liu said.

刘先生说:“我处于中等水平,有些销售员比我强多了。”

Real estate is a big factor in China’s growth. Last year, China’s central bank urged commercial banks to step up mortgage lending to support the housing market, which had been weakening in some cities. The mortgages have produced frenzied buying over the past year. That has helped construction but has also raised worries that housing prices, already unusually high by international standards relative to local incomes, might have become an unsustainable bubble.

房地产是中国经济增长的一个重要因素。去年,中国央行呼吁商业银行增加发放抵押贷款的力度,以支持一些城市疲软的房地产市场。抵押贷款的增长在过去一年里已经引发了疯狂的住房购买。这对建筑行业有帮助,但也引起人们担忧,房价可能已成为不可持续的泡沫,从国际标准来看,相对于当地收入,中国的房价已经非常高了。

All this comes amid signs that China is trying to curb the lending that has driven so much of its growth in recent years. That lending kept the economy going but resulted in heavy debt that economists worry could hinder the country’s growth for years to come. So far, the government’s modest pressure on banks to limit lending, notably through slight increases in short-term interest rates, seems to have had only a limited impact on overall bank lending, however, and very little effect on mortgage lending.

所有这些都发生在中国正试图遏制贷款的时候,近年来,中国经济发展的大部分是借贷推动的。借贷维持了经济稳定,但导致了沉重的债务,经济学家担心,债务问题可能会阻碍中国未来的经济增长。但是,政府迄今对银行贷款采取的温和限制措施,比如略微提高短期利率的做法,似乎对银行的整体贷款影响有限,对住房抵押贷款几乎没有影响。

Still Building Homes

仍在修建住宅

Chinese households put as much as nine-tenths of their savings into real estate, more than households in many other countries. That has continued to produce strong demand for new apartments, which in turn has led to a brisk pace of construction.

中国家庭将多达90%的储蓄投入到房地产中,超过了很多国家。这持续推动了修建新公寓的强劲需求,从而又导致了建设施工步伐的快速增长。

Credit data released on Friday showed that bank loans to households, a category in which mortgage lending plays a leading role, leapt 24.6 percent in March compared to the same month a year ago, even as other categories of lending began slowing somewhat. The industrial production data suggests that China’s steel mills and other industries are still benefiting from the mortgage boom and the construction that it has financed.

周五发布的信贷数据显示,3月份虽然其他类别的贷款开始放缓,以房贷为主导的银行贷款类别同比增长了24.6%。工业生产数据显示,中国的钢铁等行业仍受益于房贷热潮及其支撑的施工建设项目。

The National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that overall investment in fixed assets, including factories as well as office towers and apartment buildings, climbed 8.8 percent for the first quarter, little changed from a pace of 8.9 percent for the first two months of the year despite the central bank’s modest moves to limit credit. Private investment quickened in March, offsetting a slight slowing in what remains very heavy investment by the government, particularly in rail lines and other infrastructure.

国家统计局周一表示,固定资产投资(包括工厂、办公楼和公寓)第一季度增加了8.8%,尽管中央银行小幅限制了信贷,这与今年前两个月的8.9%相比也没有太大变化。3月份私人投资加快,抵消了政府投资的略微放缓。政府的投资力度仍然很大,特别是在铁路和其他基础设施上。

Earning and Spending

收入和支出

Chinese blue-collar wages have surged as much as eightfold in the past dozen years. That has considerably eroded the country’s once-daunting advantage in labor costs compared with the West, but has also produced a broad-based surge in prosperity that has fostered a rise in consumer spending.

十几年来,中国蓝领工人的工资飙升了八倍。这大大削弱了该国相对于西方在劳动力成本方面一度令人畏惧的优势,但是也带动了广泛的繁荣兴旺,促进了消费增长。

The government has wanted for many years to shift the economy away from its dependence on investment and toward a greater reliance on consumption, but that process has been slow. The National Bureau of Statistics said on Monday that retail sales were up 10.9 percent in March from a year earlier, considerably stronger than economists expectations of a pace below 10 percent. .

多年来,政府希望中国经济从依赖投资转向更多地依赖消费,但这一进程一直比较缓慢。国家统计局周一表示,3月份零售额同比增长10.9%,远高于经济学家预期的不足10%。

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