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新兴市场股价反弹,如何保持持续增长?

更新时间:2017-4-17 18:30:39 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Emerging Market Stocks Have Come Roaring Back. Can They Go Any Higher?
新兴市场股价反弹,如何保持持续增长?

Propelled by a rebound in commodity prices, emerging market stocks have roared back over the last year. But if the sector is to continue to prosper, many fund managers say, it will need to be fueled by other factors.

受大宗商品价格反弹的推动,新兴市场的股价在过去一年里出现强力反弹。但许多基金经理表示,这个领域若想持续增长,还需要其他因素的助推。

Weak commodity prices, which contributed to emerging market mutual and exchange-traded fund losses in 2013, 2014 and 2015, helped these funds post double-digit gains in the first quarter of this year. The funds are now up almost 17 percent in the 12 months through March.

曾在2013、2014年和2015年导致新兴市场共同基金和交易所买卖基金(ETF)遭遇损失的大宗商品价格疲软,帮助这些基金在今年一季度实现了两位数增长。在截至3月底的12个月里,这些基金已经增长了近17%。

“What has been driving emerging market returns in the last year was the recovery in commodity prices, which led to a number of commodity producers’ doing well,” said Arjun Divecha, head of the emerging markets equity team at the asset management firm GMO.

“推动新兴市场去年实现反弹的是大宗商品价格的回升,这让许多大宗商品供应商表现良好,”资产管理公司GMO的新兴市场股票团队负责人阿尔琼·迪夫查(Arjun Divecha)说。

This explains why funds focused on oil-dependent markets have risen more than emerging market equities as a whole: iShares MSCI Russia Capped E.T.F., for instance, is up more than 28 percent over the 12 months through March, while iShares MSCI Brazil Capped E.T.F. is up nearly 39 percent as oil prices have climbed 37 percent.

这解释了为何专注于依赖石油的市场的基金所获增长,超过了新兴市场股票的整体增长水平:比如俄罗斯的iShares MSCI Russia Capped E.T.F.在截至3月底的12个月里增长了逾28%,巴西的iShares MSCI Brazil Capped E.T.F.在油价剧增37%的情况下,激增了近39%。

But commodity bets are notoriously volatile and will take you only so far with emerging market stocks, several fund managers say. Several other strategies may make more sense for the longer term.

但好几名基金经理表示,众所周知押注大宗商品波动很大,而且只能让新兴市场股票增长到这个程度。其他几种策略或许能带来更长远的增长。

For example, Michael Kass, manager of the Baron Emerging Markets Fund, favors what he calls EM 2.0 — companies led by “value creators” working in cutting-edge areas like software development, machine learning, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and other health sciences. “The biggest profits will be found in high-profit-margin companies trying to gain market share in all those areas,” he said.

比如,巴伦新兴市场基金(Baron Emerging Markets Fund)经理迈克尔·卡斯(Michael Kass)偏好被他称为EM2.0的公司——由软件开发、机器学习、人工智能和生物技术及其他健康科学等前沿领域的“价值创造者”率领的企业。“试图在这些领域获得市场份额的高利润率企业那里,才能找到最大的利润,”他说。

One such company is China’s Alibaba Group, which like Amazon.com is branching out beyond online retail into areas like cloud computing, machine learning and robotic delivery mechanisms like drones and driverless cars. Alibaba is the top holding in the Baron Emerging Markets Fund.

中国的阿里巴巴集团便是一家这样的企业,与亚马逊公司(Amazon.com)一样,它正在突破网上零售领域,进入云计算、机器学习,以及无人机和无人驾驶车等机器人投递装置领域。阿里巴巴是巴伦新兴市场基金投资配置最多的公司。

An added benefit of owning these types of high-quality growth stocks, Mr. Kass said, is that they are likely to hold up better than their peers if emerging markets take another spill — one set off, perhaps, by rising interest rates in China and the United States.

卡斯表示,拥有这些高质量成长型股票的另一个好处是,如果新兴市场再度遇挫——比如或许被中国和美国不断增长的利率所触发,那么它们可能会比其他同类公司更加坚强。

Innovation is not the only factor that may determine the success of investments in the developing world. “One focus now is on structural reform stories,” said Ben Kirby, co-manager of the Thornburg Developing World Fund. He points out that many countries have been trying to restructure their economies for more sustainable growth.

创新不是决定在发展中国家的投资能否成功的唯一因素。“现在的一个关注点是机构性改革,”索恩伯格发展中世界基金(Thornburg Developing World Fund)联席经理本·柯比(Ben Kirby)说。他指出,为了获得更具实质性的增长,许多国家一直在努力调整自身的经济结构。

China has embarked on “supply-side reforms” to tackle overcapacity in several crucial industries, including steel and coal. “They’re shutting down idle capacity and high-cost producers,” Mr. Kirby said. In fact, he said, this may be one reason commodity prices have started to lift as Chinese supply is being restricted.

中国开启了“供给侧改革”,以解决包括钢铁和煤炭在内的几个关键行业的产能过剩问题。“他们在关闭闲置产能和成本过高的制造商,”柯比说。他还提到,实际上这或许是大宗商品价格开始上涨的原因之一,因为中国的供应在收紧。

India has also embarked on an economic reform effort. It just passed a national goods and services tax, which will replace and untangle a web of local- and state-levied fees. The hope is that the tax shift will promote business activity across the vast country’s different regions, while raising tax revenues.

印度也开启了一项经济改革。它刚刚通过了一项全国性的商品与服务税,将取代和理清邦税与联邦政府税网络。改革者期待这项税收变革能促进这个巨大国家不同地区的经济活动,同时增加政府的税收收入。

The tax policy changes and India’s recent demonetization efforts — which pulled popular rupee notes from the market in an effort to root out counterfeiting and black-market activity — are expected to drive deposits into the formal banking sector and bolster the formal economy.

这项税收政策变化和印度最近推行的货币作废行动——将流通颇广的几种卢比纸钞退出,以此根除假币和黑市活动——有望推高正规银行的储蓄额,推动正规经济的发展。

What type of company would benefit from that? “One stock we’ve added to lately is ICICI Bank,” Mr. Kirby said. ICICI is not the most dominant bank in India — that would be the Mumbai-based HDFC Bank, he said, which is a leading provider of mortgage loans.

什么样的公司会从中获利?“我们最近增加的一支股票是ICICI Bank,”柯比说。他承认印度工业信贷投资银行(ICICI)并非印度最重要的银行——最重要的是总部位于孟买的HDFC银行,它是该国抵押贷款的主要提供者。

“The problem is HDFC is expensive,” he said, noting that the stock trades at more than four times the company’s book value. In contrast, ICICI trades at a small fraction of that multiple, Mr. Kirby said, and the bank’s focus on corporate loans means it could benefit from any economic improvements in India brought about by reform.

“问题是HDFC太贵了,”他说,并指出这家公司的股票交易价格是其账面价格的四倍多。柯比表示,相比之下,ICICI的交易价格与账面价格的比值要小得多,而且这家银行主要关注企业债,这意味着它可以从改革带来的印度经济改善中获益。

Another approach to emerging market investing, and a classic one, still works well, said James Syme, senior fund manager with J O Hambro Capital Management. Investors can focus on exporters “that benefit from demand in the developed world,” he said.

在J O汉布罗资本管理(J O Hambro Capital Management)高级基金经理詹姆士·赛姆(James Syme)看来,投资新兴市场还有一种办法、同时也是一种十分经典的途径,依然行之有效。他表示,投资者可以专注于“从发达国家需求中获益”的出口商。

These can be companies like Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor, which supply components to Western technology manufacturers. But they can also be exporters that cater to consumers in the developed world, like the Hyundai Motor Company.

它们可以是三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和台积电等公司,它们给西方科技制造企业提供零配件。但也可以是迎合发达国家消费者需求的出口商,比如现代汽车集团(Hyundai Motor Company)。

“If you get a world where the U.S. and eurozone do well and China slows slightly,” Mr. Syme said, “you want to be cautious with commodities, selective in the emerging-market consumer space, and look at this third way.”

“当美国和欧元区表现很好而中国增长稍微缓慢一些的时候,”赛姆说,“你会想要谨慎对待大宗商品,在新兴市场消费者领域精挑细选,而且会考虑这第三种方式。”

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