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更新时间:2017-4-17 18:30:39 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Emerging Market Stocks Have Come Roaring Back. Can They Go Any Higher?

Propelled by a rebound in commodity prices, emerging market stocks have roared back over the last year. But if the sector is to continue to prosper, many fund managers say, it will need to be fueled by other factors.


Weak commodity prices, which contributed to emerging market mutual and exchange-traded fund losses in 2013, 2014 and 2015, helped these funds post double-digit gains in the first quarter of this year. The funds are now up almost 17 percent in the 12 months through March.


“What has been driving emerging market returns in the last year was the recovery in commodity prices, which led to a number of commodity producers’ doing well,” said Arjun Divecha, head of the emerging markets equity team at the asset management firm GMO.

“推动新兴市场去年实现反弹的是大宗商品价格的回升,这让许多大宗商品供应商表现良好,”资产管理公司GMO的新兴市场股票团队负责人阿尔琼·迪夫查(Arjun Divecha)说。

This explains why funds focused on oil-dependent markets have risen more than emerging market equities as a whole: iShares MSCI Russia Capped E.T.F., for instance, is up more than 28 percent over the 12 months through March, while iShares MSCI Brazil Capped E.T.F. is up nearly 39 percent as oil prices have climbed 37 percent.

这解释了为何专注于依赖石油的市场的基金所获增长,超过了新兴市场股票的整体增长水平:比如俄罗斯的iShares MSCI Russia Capped E.T.F.在截至3月底的12个月里增长了逾28%,巴西的iShares MSCI Brazil Capped E.T.F.在油价剧增37%的情况下,激增了近39%。

But commodity bets are notoriously volatile and will take you only so far with emerging market stocks, several fund managers say. Several other strategies may make more sense for the longer term.


For example, Michael Kass, manager of the Baron Emerging Markets Fund, favors what he calls EM 2.0 — companies led by “value creators” working in cutting-edge areas like software development, machine learning, artificial intelligence, biotechnology and other health sciences. “The biggest profits will be found in high-profit-margin companies trying to gain market share in all those areas,” he said.

比如,巴伦新兴市场基金(Baron Emerging Markets Fund)经理迈克尔·卡斯(Michael Kass)偏好被他称为EM2.0的公司——由软件开发、机器学习、人工智能和生物技术及其他健康科学等前沿领域的“价值创造者”率领的企业。“试图在这些领域获得市场份额的高利润率企业那里,才能找到最大的利润,”他说。

One such company is China’s Alibaba Group, which like Amazon.com is branching out beyond online retail into areas like cloud computing, machine learning and robotic delivery mechanisms like drones and driverless cars. Alibaba is the top holding in the Baron Emerging Markets Fund.


An added benefit of owning these types of high-quality growth stocks, Mr. Kass said, is that they are likely to hold up better than their peers if emerging markets take another spill — one set off, perhaps, by rising interest rates in China and the United States.


Innovation is not the only factor that may determine the success of investments in the developing world. “One focus now is on structural reform stories,” said Ben Kirby, co-manager of the Thornburg Developing World Fund. He points out that many countries have been trying to restructure their economies for more sustainable growth.

创新不是决定在发展中国家的投资能否成功的唯一因素。“现在的一个关注点是机构性改革,”索恩伯格发展中世界基金(Thornburg Developing World Fund)联席经理本·柯比(Ben Kirby)说。他指出,为了获得更具实质性的增长,许多国家一直在努力调整自身的经济结构。

China has embarked on “supply-side reforms” to tackle overcapacity in several crucial industries, including steel and coal. “They’re shutting down idle capacity and high-cost producers,” Mr. Kirby said. In fact, he said, this may be one reason commodity prices have started to lift as Chinese supply is being restricted.


India has also embarked on an economic reform effort. It just passed a national goods and services tax, which will replace and untangle a web of local- and state-levied fees. The hope is that the tax shift will promote business activity across the vast country’s different regions, while raising tax revenues.


The tax policy changes and India’s recent demonetization efforts — which pulled popular rupee notes from the market in an effort to root out counterfeiting and black-market activity — are expected to drive deposits into the formal banking sector and bolster the formal economy.


What type of company would benefit from that? “One stock we’ve added to lately is ICICI Bank,” Mr. Kirby said. ICICI is not the most dominant bank in India — that would be the Mumbai-based HDFC Bank, he said, which is a leading provider of mortgage loans.

什么样的公司会从中获利?“我们最近增加的一支股票是ICICI Bank,”柯比说。他承认印度工业信贷投资银行(ICICI)并非印度最重要的银行——最重要的是总部位于孟买的HDFC银行,它是该国抵押贷款的主要提供者。

“The problem is HDFC is expensive,” he said, noting that the stock trades at more than four times the company’s book value. In contrast, ICICI trades at a small fraction of that multiple, Mr. Kirby said, and the bank’s focus on corporate loans means it could benefit from any economic improvements in India brought about by reform.


Another approach to emerging market investing, and a classic one, still works well, said James Syme, senior fund manager with J O Hambro Capital Management. Investors can focus on exporters “that benefit from demand in the developed world,” he said.

在J O汉布罗资本管理(J O Hambro Capital Management)高级基金经理詹姆士·赛姆(James Syme)看来,投资新兴市场还有一种办法、同时也是一种十分经典的途径,依然行之有效。他表示,投资者可以专注于“从发达国家需求中获益”的出口商。

These can be companies like Samsung Electronics and Taiwan Semiconductor, which supply components to Western technology manufacturers. But they can also be exporters that cater to consumers in the developed world, like the Hyundai Motor Company.

它们可以是三星电子(Samsung Electronics)和台积电等公司,它们给西方科技制造企业提供零配件。但也可以是迎合发达国家消费者需求的出口商,比如现代汽车集团(Hyundai Motor Company)。

“If you get a world where the U.S. and eurozone do well and China slows slightly,” Mr. Syme said, “you want to be cautious with commodities, selective in the emerging-market consumer space, and look at this third way.”