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该如何和朝鲜打交道?

更新时间:2017-3-31 10:48:02 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

How to Make a Deal With North Korea
该如何和朝鲜打交道?

SEOUL, South Korea — As President Trump struggles to devise a North Korea strategy, one country’s voice has been largely missing from public debate: South Korea’s. Yet South Koreans would bear the brunt of the retaliation should Mr. Trump opt for a “pre-emptive” strike against the North Korean regime. Long-term peace on the Korean Peninsula is impossible without Seoul’s input.

韩国首尔——特朗普总统努力制定朝鲜战略的时候,有一个国家的声音在公开辩论中却基本上没有出现:那就是韩国。然而,如果特朗普选择对朝鲜政权进行“先发制人”的打击,韩国人将在朝鲜的报复行动中首当其冲。没有首尔的参与,朝鲜半岛的长期和平是不可能实现的。

South Korea’s lack of influence with the Trump administration was evident during Secretary of State Rex Tillerson’s recent visit to Asia. He held considerably shorter meetings with the South Koreans than with officials in Tokyo, and he did not even dine with his counterparts in Seoul. The South Korean side claimed Mr. Tillerson was tired (giving rise to “stamina” jokes on Twitter). The secretary fired back that his South Korean hosts had never sent a dinner invitation.

韩国对特朗普政府缺乏影响力,这一事实在国务卿雷克斯·蒂勒森(Rex Tillerson)最近访问亚洲期间尤为明显。他与韩国官员的会谈比同日本官员的会谈短得多,他甚至没有和韩国的同级官员一起吃饭。韩国方面声称蒂勒森很累(从而在Twitter上引发了关于“耐力”的笑话)。国务卿回击说韩国主人并未给他送来晚宴邀请函。

South Koreans are partly to blame for being marginalized. The country has been preoccupied since last year by a political scandal that embroiled President Park Geun-hye and ultimately led to her removal from office on March 10. The place-holder government of Park appointees maintains her hard-line posture toward North Korea but without legitimacy in the eyes of the public.

韩国遭到边缘化部分是由于他们自己。自去年以来,这个国家一直被朴槿惠(Park Geun-hye)总统的政治丑闻淹没,并最终导致她于3月10日辞职。由朴槿惠任命的官员组成的代理政府对朝鲜延续了她的强硬姿态,但在公众眼中没有合法性。

South Korea’s political vacuum will come to an end when the country votes on May 9 for a new leader, who will take office immediately. The election will have far-reaching implications for the Korean Peninsula — and for Mr. Trump’s North Korea policy.

5月9日,这个国家将通过投票选出新的领导人,该领导人将会立刻上台,结束韩国的政治真空局面。这次选举会对朝鲜半岛产生深远影响,对于特朗普的朝鲜政策也是如此。

The liberal opposition is widely expected to win, with the Democratic Party standard-bearer, Moon Jae-in, maintaining a comfortable lead in the polls. The conservatives are in disarray, having split into pro-Park and anti-Park parties; they have yet to find a presidential candidate who polls over 10 percent. South Korean elections are notoriously unpredictable, but public disgust with the impeached president is casting a pall over the conservative camp.

外界普遍预计秉持自由主义的反对党将获胜,民主党(Democratic Party)领袖文在寅(Moon Jae-in)在民调中保持大幅领先。保守派一片混乱,分裂成了支持朴槿惠和反对朴槿惠的阵营。他们尚未找到一个支持率超过10%的总统候选人。众所周知,韩国的大选难以预测,但民众对遭到弹劾的前总统朴槿惠的厌恶,让保守派阵营蒙上了阴影。

North Korea policy is one of the sharpest points of divergence between liberals and conservatives in the South. The hard-line conservative approach of all sticks and no carrots was unpopular by the time Ms. Park took office in 2013. Early on, she appeared to be looking for middle ground: She advocated building trust with Pyongyang and did not make denuclearization a precondition for inter-Korean dialogue. But as time passed, it became clear that Ms. Park’s interest in improving relations was all talk. After North Korea’s fourth nuclear test in January 2016, she abruptly shifted back to harsh rhetoric and hard-line policies, most notably by shutting down the joint North-South industrial park at Kaesong.

对朝政策是韩国自由派和保守派之间分歧最严重的问题之一。朴槿惠2013年上台时,保守派只有大棒,没有胡萝卜的强硬方式不得人心。一开始,她似乎在寻找中间地带:她主张与平壤建立互信,并且没有把无核化作为两国对话的前提条件。但随着时间的推移,朴槿惠对改善两国关系的兴趣显然只是说说而已。在朝鲜2016年1月进行第四次核试验后,她突然回到严厉的措辞和强硬的政策,最显著的是关闭了开城的韩朝联合工业园。

Mr. Moon wants to bring back dialogue and negotiation as means to lower tensions and increase security on both sides of the demilitarized zone. He advocates expanding cultural exchanges and humanitarian assistance to improve inter-Korean relations, alleviate suffering among North Korean people and encourage the North’s opening-up. Perhaps most important, Mr. Moon embraces economic cooperation, trade and investment to help Pyongyang shift from its focus on security to building its economy.

文在寅希望恢复对话和谈判,以此缓和紧张气氛并改善非军事区两边的安全状况。他主张扩大文化交流和人道主义援助,从而改善两国关系、缓解朝鲜民众的痛苦,并鼓励朝鲜对外开放。或许最重要的是,文在寅支持通过经济合作、贸易和投资来帮助平壤把重心从安全转移到经济建设上。

There is good reason to think that this more open approach to the North is the better way to handle its supreme leader, Kim Jong-un.

有充分的理由认为,这种更开明的对朝态度,是和朝鲜最高领导人金正恩(Kim Jong-un)打交道的更好方式。

The current strategy, after all, is a dead-end. Missile defense, military exercises and economic sanctions only feed the insatiable security dilemma. Even the acclaimed Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system, deployed in the South by the United States, does nothing to protect Seoul from an attack. And each marginal improvement in the South’s defense prompts the North to develop new asymmetrical threats and can have costly side effects. For example, Seoul’s relations with Beijing have tanked over the Thaad deployment, which China sees as a threat to its security.

当前的策略毕竟是一条死胡同。导弹防御、军事演习和经济制裁只会加剧无法解决的安全两难困境。即便是美国部署在韩国的大名鼎鼎的末段高空防御系统(Terminal High Altitude Area Defense system,简称“萨德”)也无法保护首尔不受攻击。此外,韩国防御系统每一次微不足道的改善都会促使朝鲜发展不对称的新威胁,并且可能会产生代价昂贵的副作用。比如,首尔与北京的关系就因萨德的部署而遭受重创。中国视萨德为安全威胁。

But the liberal approach takes advantage of Mr. Kim’s ambitions. As soon as he took power in 2012, Mr. Kim promised his people that they would never again have to “tighten their belts,” and he put economic progress at the center of his strategy. Half of that strategy, known in Korean as “byungjin,” or “simultaneous progress,” refers to improving the nuclear deterrent, which gets all the headlines. Yet nuclear deterrence only provides the security guarantee on which Mr. Kim can turn to the more ambitious half of byungjin: economic development.

自由派的方式利用了金正恩的雄心。2012年一上台,金正恩就向民众承诺,他们再也不用“勒紧裤腰带”,并把经济进步作为其战略的核心。该战略在朝鲜被称作“并进”,它的一半指的是增强核威慑力量,这是各大媒体的头条。但核威慑力量只能提供安全保障,在此基础上,金正恩才能转向并进战略更具雄心的另一半:经济发展。

Mr. Kim has made policy decisions — introducing agricultural and enterprise reforms, appointing technocrats, opening new special economic zones and leaving the markets alone — that demonstrate that his economic ambitions are more than sloganeering. In a major speech at the beginning of the year, Mr. Kim also stressed he was ready to “join hands” to work with anyone in the South who wants to improve inter-Korean relations.

金正恩的一系列政策决定——推行农业和企业改革、任命技术官员、新设经济特区和放开对市场的限制——表明,他的经济雄心不仅仅是制定口号。在今年年初的一次重要讲话中,金正恩还强调,他准备好同韩国任何希望改善朝韩关系的人“携手”合作。

This opening for the next administration in Seoul to work with Mr. Kim is also an opportunity for Mr. Trump. The smart play for Mr. Trump would be to return to those five wise words he said about Mr. Kim on the campaign trail: “I would speak to him.” The United States should swiftly negotiate a bilateral deal that freezes Mr. Kim’s nuclear and missile program.

下一届韩国政府面对的同金正恩合作的机遇,也是特朗普的一个机会。对特朗普来说,聪明的做法是回到他在竞选期间谈到金正恩时说的那几个充满智慧的字:“我会和他交流。”美国应该迅速通过谈判达成一份双边协议,冻结金正恩的导弹项目和核计划。

South Koreans would be relieved to see Mr. Trump pursuing prudent diplomacy instead of reckless warmongering, and a “cap and freeze” deal would give a new government in Seoul a better foundation for opening its broader effort to help Mr. Kim lead his country toward regional integration and economic growth.

看到特朗普实行慎重的外交政策而不是鲁莽地鼓吹战争,韩国会大松一口气。此外,“限制和冻结”协议还会给首尔的新政府打下更好的基础,以在各个领域进行努力,帮助金正恩领导他的国家走向区域一体化和经济增长。

A new South Korean president would prefer to start opening up toward the North with a United States-North Korea nuclear deal in place. But barring that, the next leader in Seoul should move forward with improving inter-Korean relations, and hope that Washington will eventually see the wisdom in a more open approach.

韩国的新总统可能更愿意在美国同朝鲜签署了核协议后开始面向朝鲜开放。但除此之外,首尔的下一任领导人应该推动改善韩朝两国关系,并希望华盛顿最终能看到更开放的方式的明智之处。

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