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特朗普最好的选择:和金正恩谈判

更新时间:2017-3-16 19:28:20 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Donald, Have I Got a Deal for You
特朗普最好的选择:和金正恩谈判

Every president has an early foreign policy test, and Donald Trump is no exception. Trump’s test is actually already in progress, and it bears some resemblance to the one faced by a young President Kennedy. Indeed, Trump’s crisis has best been described as a “slow-motion Cuban missile crisis” — only the crisis-driver is not Fidel Castro, but North Korea’s bizarre despot, Kim Jong-un.

每个总统都会经历早期的外交政策考验,唐纳德·特朗普也不例外。他的考验实际上已经在发展进程中了,和年轻的肯尼迪总统当年面对的情况有些相似。的确,特朗普的危机最好被描述为“慢动作版古巴导弹危机”——只不过危机的驱动者不是菲德尔·卡斯特罗(Fidel Castro),而是朝鲜的怪诞专制者金正恩(Kim Jong-un)。

If this crisis is not keeping you up at night, you’re not paying attention.

如果你认真留意过这场危机,夜里准会因此失眠。

Let’s see, we have an untested, macho, Twitter-happy U.S. president facing off against the leader of a dynastic North Korean political cult who’s building a long-range nuclear missile that could hit Los Angeles and who — allegedly — just had his half brother, Kim Jong-nam, knocked off by two women who wiped his face with a lethal nerve agent while he was transiting a Malaysian airport.

让我们看看,我们的美国总统是一个没经历过考验的大男子主义者,一个Twitter爱好者,现在要面对朝鲜王朝政治邪教的领导人,此人正在建造可以击中洛杉矶的远程核导弹;而且,他的异母哥哥金正男(Kim Jong-nam)在经过马来西亚机场时被两个女人干掉了,她们曾用致命的神经毒剂擦拭他的脸,此事据说正是这位朝鲜领导人一手导演的。

Hey, what could go wrong?

嘿,还能有什么更糟的?

This Korean missile crisis has dragged on far longer than the famous “13 days” of the Cuban missile crisis, but don’t let that fool you: “We’re at an important inflection point,” explains Robert Litwak, from the Wilson Center, one of the premier experts on rogue states. “North Korea is on the verge of a strategic breakout that would enable its leadership to strike the United States with a nuclear-armed ICBM,” or intercontinental ballistic missile.

这场朝鲜导弹危机拖延了很久,远远超过古巴导弹危机那著名的“13天”,但不要被这个所迷惑:“我们处在一个重要的转折点,”威尔逊中心的罗伯特·利特瓦克(Robert Litwak)是研究流氓国家的重要专家之一。“朝鲜正处于战略突破的边缘,这一突破令其领导人能够使用核弹头武装的ICBM来攻击美国,”他口中的ICBM是指洲际弹道导弹。

We need to address this now. Hard to believe, but this hermit kingdom with an economy the size of Dayton, Ohio, “is at a point where it could, by 2020, have a nuclear arsenal half the size of Great Britain’s with missiles capable of striking the U.S. homeland,” said Litwak.

我们需要现在就解决这个问题。这个与世隔绝的王国的经济规模与俄亥俄州的代顿市相当,但是,令人难以置信的是,“现在已经发展到这样的地步,到2020年,它的核武库将相当于英国的一半,导弹能够击中美国本土,”利特瓦克说。

Have a nice day!

祝你今天愉快!

While all eyes here have been focused on Trump, North Korea has been focused on perfecting the miniaturization of its nuclear stockpile into warheads that could fit on long-range ballistic missiles and on methodically testing those missiles, with mixed success, so far.

在美国,所有注意力都集中在特朗普身上,与此同时,朝鲜一直专注于完善其核储备的微型化,使核弹头能装上远程弹道导弹,并且有条不紊地对这些导弹进行测试,迄今为止取得了好坏参半的结果。

As a result, Litwak explains in his new book, “Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear Breakout,” North Korea is on the cusp of moving from a nuclear bomb arsenal estimated to be in the midteens to an arsenal that could be as large as 100 warheads, and from missiles that can hit only Japan and Korea to ones that can cross the Pacific.

因此,利特瓦克在他的新书《防止朝鲜的核突破》(Preventing North Korea’s Nuclear Breakout)中解释说,朝鲜正处于一个关键转折点,其核武库将从拥有约15枚弹头发展到可能拥有多达100枚,从拥有可击中日本与韩国的导弹发展到拥有能够穿越太平洋的导弹。

Trump did not create this problem — it’s been passed down to him from Presidents Clinton, Bush and Obama — but he will have to fix it. And it has reached a point where the U.S. has only three options: awful, bad and worse. Or as Litwak describes them: “bomb, acquiesce or negotiate.”

这个问题并不是特朗普制造的——它是从克林顿、布什和奥巴马总统手里传下来的——但是他必须解决它。它已经达到了这样一个程度,美国只有三个选择:可怕、很糟和更糟。或者如利特瓦克所描述的:“轰炸、默许或谈判。”

Bombing North Korea’s nuclear and missile sites runs the risk of escalating into a second (possibly nuclear) Korean war with over a million casualties. North Korea’s nuclear facilities are “hot,” and bombing them could have untold consequences in terms of radioactivity. Alternatively, acquiescing to a breakout means this failed state could — incredibly — become a major nuclear power with a global reach. “So that just leaves negotiating,” says Litwak.

轰炸朝鲜的核设施与导弹设施有升级为第二场朝鲜战争(有可能是核战争)的风险,将造成一百多万人的伤亡。朝鲜的核设施是“热”的,对之进行轰炸,可能会在放射方面导致难以估量的后果。换一种做法,默认朝鲜的这种突破,这意味着这个失败国家可以——令人难以置信地——成为一个拥有全球影响力的核大国。“所以,只剩下谈判,”利特瓦克说。

Donald Trump negotiating with Kim Jong-un does have a certain pay-per-view quality about it, but it’s the least bad option. And to make it more interesting, the model that Trump should follow, argues Litwak, is the nuclear deal that Obama struck with Iran, which Trump once described as “the worst deal ever negotiated.”

唐纳德·特朗普与金正恩进行谈判,这确实有种按次计费电视节目的感觉,但它是最不坏的选择。更有意思的是,利特瓦克认为,特朗普应该遵循奥巴马与伊朗签订核协议的模式,特朗普曾经说过那是“由谈判所达成的最糟糕的交易。”

Think again.

再想想看吧。

Obama had the same three choices on Iran: bomb, acquiesce or negotiate. He did not want to bomb Iranian nuclear installations, because of the uncontrollable events bombing could unleash, and he did not want to acquiesce. So Obama negotiated what Litwak calls a “purely transactional” deal — Iran agreed to a 15-year halt on processing weapons-usable fissile material in return for significant sanctions relief, and no other behaviors were covered.

要对付伊朗,奥巴马有三个选择:轰炸、默许或谈判。他不想轰炸伊朗的核设施,因为轰炸会导致不可控的事件;他也不想默许。因此,奥巴马通过谈判达成了利特瓦克所谓的“纯交易”协议——伊朗同意在15年内停止加工可用于武器的裂变材料,以换取重大的制裁减免,协议中没有涉及其他行为。

Obama’s bet? Something will happen in these 15 years that will be “transformational,” says Litwak, and provide the only true security — a change in the character of Iran’s regime.

奥巴马的赌注是什么?在这15年里,将会发生“转变”,并且提供唯一真正的安全——伊朗政权的性质将会有所改变,利特瓦克说。

Trump should follow that path, argues Litwak: Get North Korea to freeze its nuclear warheads at present levels — around 15 — freeze all production of weapons-usable fissile material and freeze all ballistic missile testing — so it cannot hit the U.S. — in return for an easing of economic sanctions and some economic aid.

特朗普应该遵循这条道路,利特瓦克说,让朝鲜将其核弹头冻结在目前的水平——大约15枚左右——并冻结所有可用于生产武器的裂变材料,以及所有弹道导弹测试——这样它就不能击中美国——作为回报,美国放宽对朝鲜的经济制裁,并进行一些经济援助。

“It would be a transactional deal that constrains North Korea’s capabilities and buys time for a transformation, just like the Iran deal did,” says Litwak. The Kim cult should go for it, because it keeps them in power with a minimum deterrence against a U.S. invasion.

利特瓦克说:“这会是一个限制朝鲜能力,并为其转变争取时间的交易性协议,就像伊朗协议一样。金氏集团应该会争取它,因为这样做能让他们继续当权,同时维持对美国入侵的底线威慑力。

Trump will soon discover that in foreign policy, everything is like Obamacare — easy to criticize, more transactional than transformational, but all the other options are worse. And there are no pure wins to boast about. Those only happen on TV shows.

特朗普很快就会发现,在外交政策领域,一切都和奥巴马医保(Obamacare)颇为类似——要批评它是很容易的,它更像交易,而不是重大转变,但是其他选项都更糟糕。而且这其中没有什么可以拿来吹嘘的纯粹胜利,那种胜利只有在电视真人秀里才会发生。

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