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买不起租不起,多伦多归巢族却成高房价推手

更新时间:2017-3-13 18:51:54 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Toronto’s Housing Boom Refills Empty Nests, Driving Prices Even Higher
买不起租不起,多伦多归巢族却成高房价推手

OAKVILLE, Ontario — Janet Barber doesn’t dwell too much on the view from her driveway.

安大略奥克维尔——珍妮特·巴伯(Janet Barber)很少待在自家车道上长时间张望周遭的景致。

Many of her longtime neighbors up and down the block have cashed in on the area’s soaring house prices and moved away. Where their modest wood homes once stood, much larger architect-designed houses of stone, steel and glass fill the lots. Across the street, a big sign plastered with “Sold” stickers means that one is probably next to go.

住在街区各处的很多老邻居,都把价格飙涨的房产变了现,搬走了。他们那些朴素的木头房子原先伫立的地方,现在已被由建筑设计师打造,用石头、钢筋和玻璃建造的更大的房子占据。街对面,一个大牌子上贴着印有“出售”字样的贴纸,意味着可能又有一个人要搬走。

But no matter how much Ms. Barber and her husband, Michael, might now be able to get for their own three-bedroom bungalow, they are not about to join the rush.

但不论巴伯和她丈夫能把自家的三卧室平房卖到多高的价钱,他们都不会加入这股大潮。

Why? Though they are old enough to be empty-nesters, their nest isn’t empty. Their 29-year-old daughter, Sarah, has been living with them since she finished a graduate degree in 2013, because she can not yet afford a place of her own. Her older sister, Jennifer, did the same for six years.

为什么?因为他们虽然已经老到足以成为空巢老人的程度,但他们的“巢”并不是空的。由于负担不起单独的住处,他们的女儿萨拉(Sarah)自从在2013年读完研究生学位以后,便和他们住在一起。出于同样的原因,萨拉的姐姐珍妮弗(Jennifer)和他们同住过六年。

The more house prices rise, the longer it will take Sarah to save up enough to move out. But the longer she and thousands like her stay with their parents, the fewer houses are put up for sale — and that scarcity is a big reason prices are soaring.

房价涨得越多,萨拉便需要越多时间才能攒够搬出去住的钱。但她和成千上万像她这样的人待在父母身边越久,挂牌出售的房产就越少——而这种稀缺性又是房价飙升的一大原因。

It is a paradox of the red-hot real estate market around Toronto: Some owners are not selling because prices are too high.

这是多伦多火爆的房地产市场上的一个悖论:一些房主不卖房是因为房价太高。

Oakville, the affluent commuter town where the Barbers live, has been transformed by the property boom in the Toronto area. Last month, the average sale price in Oakville hit 1.4 million Canadian dollars ($1 million), 30 percent higher than a year ago. Prices are climbing into seven figures across the region, and rentals are expensive and difficult to find.

巴伯住在奥克维尔,多伦多地区的房地产热潮让这个富庶的通勤镇发生了改变。上个月,奥克维尔的房屋均价达到每套140万加元(100万美元),比去年高出30%。当地的房价正攀升至七位数,与此同时房屋租赁价格高企,而且很难租到。

Those daunting figures have driven thousands of young adults back into their childhood bedrooms. An unusually high 56.5 percent of people in their 20s in the Toronto area still live with their parents, compared with 42 percent nationwide. Like Sarah Barber, many of them appear to be trading some independence for the chance to turn what otherwise would have been rent money into savings for a down payment.

这些骇人的数字迫使成千上万年轻成人返回了童年时代的卧室。在多伦多地区,二十多岁的人有56.5%与父母同住,相较于全国范围内的42%,这个数字高得不同寻常。像萨拉·巴伯一样,他们中的很多人似乎正以部分独立性换取把原本该付的租金变成储蓄,以支付首付款的机会。

It can make sense financially for them, but it also makes the affordability problem worse. Basic economics says that high prices ought to entice more owners to sell, with the added supply helping to relieve some of the upward pressure. But that is not happening in Toronto, where, despite intense demand, the rate of new listings has been stagnant for several years, and even fell 12 percent last month.

他们的做法在财务上是说得通的;但这也让负担能力问题变得更加严重。按照基本的经济学原理,高房价会诱使更多房主卖房,让供给增加,有助于在一定程度上缓解价格上涨的压力。但多伦多的情况并非如此,在这里,尽管需求颇为旺盛,但新增房源所占比例几年来一直停滞不前,上个月甚至下降了12%。

There may be several reasons more Toronto-area homeowners are not doing what the economics textbooks predict. Some analysts believe that parents who might otherwise sell, but are staying put to accommodate their adult children, are a significant factor.

多伦多地区的房主没像经济学教科书所预言的那样行事,原因可能多种多样。有分析人士认为,其中一个重要因素是,一些家长本来可能会把房子卖掉,但却按兵不动,为了给成年子女提供住处。

“It’s the only gift we can give them,” Janet Barber said as her daughters tried to persuade the family’s golden retriever puppy not to lick every face in the living room. “We can’t give them a 200,000-dollar down payment on a house. So what can we do? We can house them.”

“这是我们能送给她们的唯一礼物,”珍妮特·巴伯说这话的时候,她的女儿们正说服家里那只金毛犬幼崽,不要把客厅内每个人的脸都舔一遍。“我们无法给她们买房所需的20万首付款。那我们还能做些什么?我们可以给她们提供住处。”

Prices are stable or rising slowly in most other Canadian cities, but Toronto is booming, fueled by rapid population growth, and builders cannot hope to meet all the demand. A similar frenzy took hold in Vancouver, British Columbia, for a while, but a series of measures, including a tax on foreign buyers, seems to have cooled it off for now.

加拿大其他城市的房价大多颇为稳定,或正缓慢上升。但在人口快速增长的推波助澜之下,多伦多的房价一路飙涨,而建筑商不可能满足所有的需求。有一段时间,不列颠哥伦比亚省温哥华市出现过同样的房地产狂潮,但包括对外国买家征税在内的一系列举措,似乎暂时让市场降了温。

Dana Senagama, the principal market analyst for the Toronto area at the Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation, a federal agency, said experts were just as taken aback by the price explosion as the general public.

联邦机构加拿大按揭及房屋公司(Canada Housing and Mortgage Corporation)多伦多地区首席市场分析师达娜·塞纳伽马(Dana Senagama)说,专业人士像普通民众一样,对价格的爆炸式增长感到惊诧。

“I think it’s crazy,” Ms. Senagama said. “We all, as an industry, just need to be careful and make sure we’re not getting in over our heads.”

“我认为这很疯狂,”塞纳伽马说。“我们所有的业内人士都需要小心谨慎,确保我们别陷入难以摆脱的泥潭。”

She said low interest rates, Toronto’s status as the top destination for affluent immigrants and foreign investment in Canadian property all played a role in heating up the market. But so does the relative reluctance of homeowners to list their houses in a city where existing homes account for 80 percent of sales.

她说,低利率、多伦多作为富裕移民首选目的地的地位,以及外国人对加拿大房产的投资,都推动了市场的升温。但同样起到作用的还有:在一个二手房销量占房屋销售总量80%的城市里,房主相对而言不太愿意将房产挂牌出售。

Murtaza Haider, a professor of real estate management at Ryerson University in Toronto who specializes in data analysis, said the large number of adults still living with parents was an important factor. In parts of the area, the rate is as high as 78 percent, according to Statistics Canada, the federal census agency.

多伦多霍林斯大学(Hollins University)致力于数据分析的房地产管理教授穆尔塔扎·海德(Murtaza Haider)说,一个重要因素是大量成年人仍与父母同住。根据联邦普查机构加拿大统计局(Statistics Canada)的数据,在多伦多部分地区,这一比例高达78%。

Some of that comes from social traditions among certain immigrant groups, but Professor Haider and others say the trend is driven more by high house prices and an increasingly unstable job market for young adults.

其原因在某种程度上与特定移民群体中的社会传统有关,但海德教授等人表示,这种趋势更多是由房价高企以及面向年轻成人的就业市场越来越不稳定造成的。

“There’s been a big demographic shift,” Professor Haider said. “The logical system of housing tenure, which has served us well, has been seriously impacted.”

“人口结构出现了很大的变化,”海德教授说。“严重影响了运行一向良好的房屋使用逻辑体系。”

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