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四弹连发?日本担心朝鲜测试新的攻击策略

更新时间:2017-3-7 10:24:03 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea Launch Could Be Test of New Attack Strategy, Japan Analysts Say
四弹连发?日本担心朝鲜测试新的攻击策略

TOKYO — The apparent success of four simultaneous missile launchings by North Korea on Monday raised new alarms about the threat to its neighbors and its progress toward developing an ability to overcome their ballistic missile defense systems, including those that have yet to be deployed.

东京——朝鲜周一明显成功地同时发射了四枚导弹,在其邻国敲响了新警钟,这些国家既担心导弹的威胁,也担心朝鲜在发展克服他们的弹道导弹防御系统(包括尚未部署的系统)的能力方面取得的进展。

According to the South Korean military, North Korea launched four ballistic missiles from its long-range rocket launch site on Monday morning. In Japan, analysts said the launches suggested that North Korea could pose a more serious threat than indicated by previous tests.

据韩国军方说,朝鲜在周一早晨从其远程火箭发射场发射了四枚弹道导弹。日本的分析人士说,这些发射表明,朝鲜可能构成比以前测试所表明的更严重的威胁。

“That would mean a lot in terms of the defense of Tokyo, because North Korea might have been conducting a simulation of a ‘saturation attack’ in which they launch a number of missiles simultaneously in order to saturate the missile defense that Japan has,” said Narushige Michishita, director of the Security and International Studies Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “It would be difficult for Japan to shoot down four missiles all at the same time because of our limited missile defense.”

“这在东京的防御方面将意味着很多,因为朝鲜可能已经进行了一次‘饱和攻击’的模拟,为了让日本现有的导弹防御能力饱和,他们同时发射了几枚导弹,”东京国家政策研究院安全与国际关系项目主任道下徳成(Narushige Michishita)说。“由于我们有限的导弹防御能力,日本很难同时击落四枚导弹。”

The missile tests came three weeks after North Korea tested a missile during a visit to the United States by Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to meet with President Trump.

此次导弹试验的三周前,朝鲜曾在日本首相安倍晋三前往美国与特朗普总统会面期间测试了一枚导弹。

The launch on Monday happened as the United States and South Korea were conducting their annual joint military exercise. North Korea calls such drills a rehearsal for invasion and has often responded by conducting missile tests.

周一的发射是在美国与韩国进行年度联合军事演习的时候进行的。朝鲜称这些演习是入侵的预演,并经常用进行导弹测试的方式做出回应。

Japan’s Coast Guard sent out navigation warnings and stepped up air and sea patrols on Monday after three of the missiles landed within the country’s so-called exclusive economic zone, where fishing and cargo ships are active. The fourth landed outside it, though nearby.

朝鲜发射的导弹中有三枚落入了日本的所谓专属经济区内,那里的渔船和货船往来频繁,导弹落入后,日本海岸警卫队在周一发出了航行警告,并加强了空中和海上的巡逻。第四枚导弹落入了该区域外不远的地方。

This was not the first time that North Korean test missiles have fallen within that zone. In both August and September last year, missiles came within 125 and 155 miles of the Japanese coastline. Monday’s missiles landed about 185 to 220 miles west of Akita Prefecture, on the northern coast of the main island, Honshu. The September launches involved three missiles fired simultaneously, but this time North Korea set off four missiles at once, all of which seemed to land successfully.

这不是朝鲜测试的导弹首次落入这个区域。去年8月和9月,朝鲜的导弹曾落入距离日本海岸线125英里和155英里的海域。周一的导弹落入了距秋田县以西约185至220英里的海里,秋田县位于本州岛北部。去年9月的发射涉及三枚同时点火的导弹,但这次,朝鲜同时发射了四枚导弹,而且看来都成功了。

During a parliamentary committee session Monday morning, Mr. Abe said that the launches “clearly represent a new threat from North Korea.”

安倍晋三在周一上午日本议会的一个委员会上表示,这些发射“显然代表着来自朝鲜的新威胁”。

The missiles took off from Tongchang-ri, in northwestern North Korea, and flew an average of 620 miles before falling into the sea between North Korea and Japan, said Noh Jae-chon, a South Korean military spokesman. The type of missile fired was not immediately clear, but Mr. Noh said it was unlikely that they were intercontinental ballistic missiles, which the North had recently threatened to test launch.

导弹从朝鲜西北部的通昌里升空,平均飞行了620英里,然后落入朝鲜与日本之间的海域,韩国军方发言人卢在容(Noh Jae-chon,音)说。目前尚不清楚这些导弹的类型,但卢在容表示不太可能是洲际弹道导弹,朝鲜一直威胁要测试这种导弹。

In South Korea, the launch prompted South Korean security officials to call for the early deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense System, or Thaad, an advanced American antimissile system.

此次发射引起韩国安全官员呼吁尽早部署简称“萨德”的美国导弹防御系统,即末段高空区域防御系统。

Mr. Michishita, of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said the missile launches could accelerate a discussion within the Japanese government about whether Japan should acquire more missile defense systems, including Thaad. In January, Japan’s defense minister, Tomomi Inada, visited a United States Air Force base on Guam for a briefing on Thaad.

东京国家政策研究院的道下德成说,导弹的发射可能会在日本政府内加快有关日本是否应该购买更多的导弹防御系统的讨论,包括萨德。今年1月,日本国防部长稻田朋美曾访问过美国的关岛空军基地,听取了关于萨德的汇报。

After North Korea’s missile test last month, Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party formed a committee to discuss the country’s ballistic missile defenses, and it plans to debate various options, including Thaad, early warning satellites and other defense systems that could intercept incoming missiles.

朝鲜上个月的导弹试验之后,日本执政的自民党成立了一个委员会,来讨论该国的弹道导弹防御问题,该委员会计划就各种选择展开辩论,其中包括萨德、预警卫星,以及其他可以拦截发来的导弹的防御系统。

North Korea’s provocations could also embolden Mr. Abe in his campaign to raise military spending.

朝鲜的挑衅也可能会让安倍晋三在提高军费开支的努力上更大胆。

“This can be used by the government as a pretty credible reason why we have to spend more on defense at the expense of other budget items,” including social welfare programs, Mr. Michishita said.

道下德成说,“这可以被政府用作为一个相当可信的理由,为什么我们必须在防御上花费更多的钱,而不是在其他预算项目上,”比如社会福利。

The Mainichi Shimbun, a newspaper, reported in its evening edition that residents in Akita Prefecture, which sits closest to where the missiles landed in the Sea of Japan on Monday, were concerned by the increasing frequency of the tests.

《每日新闻》报在其晚间版上报道说,秋田县居民对导弹测试的频率越来越关注,他们住在距离周一落入日本海的导弹最近的地方。

Kazuhiro Asai, director of the Kitaura branch of the Fishermen’s Cooperative of Akita Prefecture, told The Mainichi Shimbun that members of the group were frightened by the launches. The newspaper also quoted Kiyokazu Hatakeyama, director of the Kitaura Community Center, as concerned about a potential decrease in tourists to the area.

秋田县渔民合作社北海分社主任浅井和宏(Kazuhiro Asai,音)对《每日新闻》说,当地有些居民对导弹发射感到害怕。该报还援引了Kitaura社区中心主任畠山清一(Kiyokazu Hatakeyama,音)的话说,他担心这可能会让该地区的游客数量减少。

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