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更新时间:2017-3-7 10:24:03 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

North Korea Launch Could Be Test of New Attack Strategy, Japan Analysts Say

TOKYO — The apparent success of four simultaneous missile launchings by North Korea on Monday raised new alarms about the threat to its neighbors and its progress toward developing an ability to overcome their ballistic missile defense systems, including those that have yet to be deployed.


According to the South Korean military, North Korea launched four ballistic missiles from its long-range rocket launch site on Monday morning. In Japan, analysts said the launches suggested that North Korea could pose a more serious threat than indicated by previous tests.


“That would mean a lot in terms of the defense of Tokyo, because North Korea might have been conducting a simulation of a ‘saturation attack’ in which they launch a number of missiles simultaneously in order to saturate the missile defense that Japan has,” said Narushige Michishita, director of the Security and International Studies Program at the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies in Tokyo. “It would be difficult for Japan to shoot down four missiles all at the same time because of our limited missile defense.”

“这在东京的防御方面将意味着很多,因为朝鲜可能已经进行了一次‘饱和攻击’的模拟,为了让日本现有的导弹防御能力饱和,他们同时发射了几枚导弹,”东京国家政策研究院安全与国际关系项目主任道下徳成(Narushige Michishita)说。“由于我们有限的导弹防御能力,日本很难同时击落四枚导弹。”

The missile tests came three weeks after North Korea tested a missile during a visit to the United States by Japan’s prime minister, Shinzo Abe, to meet with President Trump.


The launch on Monday happened as the United States and South Korea were conducting their annual joint military exercise. North Korea calls such drills a rehearsal for invasion and has often responded by conducting missile tests.


Japan’s Coast Guard sent out navigation warnings and stepped up air and sea patrols on Monday after three of the missiles landed within the country’s so-called exclusive economic zone, where fishing and cargo ships are active. The fourth landed outside it, though nearby.


This was not the first time that North Korean test missiles have fallen within that zone. In both August and September last year, missiles came within 125 and 155 miles of the Japanese coastline. Monday’s missiles landed about 185 to 220 miles west of Akita Prefecture, on the northern coast of the main island, Honshu. The September launches involved three missiles fired simultaneously, but this time North Korea set off four missiles at once, all of which seemed to land successfully.


During a parliamentary committee session Monday morning, Mr. Abe said that the launches “clearly represent a new threat from North Korea.”


The missiles took off from Tongchang-ri, in northwestern North Korea, and flew an average of 620 miles before falling into the sea between North Korea and Japan, said Noh Jae-chon, a South Korean military spokesman. The type of missile fired was not immediately clear, but Mr. Noh said it was unlikely that they were intercontinental ballistic missiles, which the North had recently threatened to test launch.

导弹从朝鲜西北部的通昌里升空,平均飞行了620英里,然后落入朝鲜与日本之间的海域,韩国军方发言人卢在容(Noh Jae-chon,音)说。目前尚不清楚这些导弹的类型,但卢在容表示不太可能是洲际弹道导弹,朝鲜一直威胁要测试这种导弹。

In South Korea, the launch prompted South Korean security officials to call for the early deployment of the Terminal High-Altitude Area Defense System, or Thaad, an advanced American antimissile system.


Mr. Michishita, of the National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies, said the missile launches could accelerate a discussion within the Japanese government about whether Japan should acquire more missile defense systems, including Thaad. In January, Japan’s defense minister, Tomomi Inada, visited a United States Air Force base on Guam for a briefing on Thaad.


After North Korea’s missile test last month, Japan’s governing Liberal Democratic Party formed a committee to discuss the country’s ballistic missile defenses, and it plans to debate various options, including Thaad, early warning satellites and other defense systems that could intercept incoming missiles.


North Korea’s provocations could also embolden Mr. Abe in his campaign to raise military spending.


“This can be used by the government as a pretty credible reason why we have to spend more on defense at the expense of other budget items,” including social welfare programs, Mr. Michishita said.


The Mainichi Shimbun, a newspaper, reported in its evening edition that residents in Akita Prefecture, which sits closest to where the missiles landed in the Sea of Japan on Monday, were concerned by the increasing frequency of the tests.


Kazuhiro Asai, director of the Kitaura branch of the Fishermen’s Cooperative of Akita Prefecture, told The Mainichi Shimbun that members of the group were frightened by the launches. The newspaper also quoted Kiyokazu Hatakeyama, director of the Kitaura Community Center, as concerned about a potential decrease in tourists to the area.

秋田县渔民合作社北海分社主任浅井和宏(Kazuhiro Asai,音)对《每日新闻》说,当地有些居民对导弹发射感到害怕。该报还援引了Kitaura社区中心主任畠山清一(Kiyokazu Hatakeyama,音)的话说,他担心这可能会让该地区的游客数量减少。