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特朗普需要给世界一个明确表态

更新时间:2017-2-21 18:36:47 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Why the World Needs a Trump Doctrine
特朗普需要给世界一个明确表态

WASHINGTON — The global order is in disarray. The world is sliding into significant disorder with no international structure capable of handling the kinds of problems that are likely to erupt almost simultaneously. To compound it all, chaos among the major powers could generate truly disastrous consequences.

华盛顿——全球秩序陷入混乱。世界正滑向明显的无序,没什么国际框架能处理有可能几乎同时爆发的那类问题。更可怕的是,几个重要大国之间出现乱子有可能会带来极具灾难性的后果。

So far, President Trump has failed to formulate any significant, relevant statements about the global condition. Instead, the world has been left to interpret the sometimes irresponsible, uncoordinated and ignorant statements of his team.

截至目前,特朗普总统没能就全球局势确切表达出任何重大的相关声明。这个世界反倒不得不理解他的团队时常发出的不负责任、考虑不周和无知的声明。

Self-promoters seeking important positions should not be permitted to create the impression that their sometimes simplistic and extremist terminology is becoming national policy. The recent public embarrassment over American policy toward the Kremlin, culminating in the resignation of Michael T. Flynn as national security adviser after just 24 days in the job, speaks for itself.

寻求重要职位的自我推销者不应该被允许造成这样的印象,即他们有时过分简化和极端的专门用语在变成国家政策。最近美国对克里姆林宫政策上的公开出丑——以迈克尔·T·弗林(Michael T. Flynn)刚刚就任国家安全顾问24天便辞职为顶点——就足以说明问题。

While we did not support Mr. Trump, he is the president of the United States. He is our president, and we want him to be a success. Right now, he does not look like that to the rest of the world, or to us.

尽管我们不支持特朗普,但他毕竟是美国总统。他是我们的总统,我们希望他成功。而眼下,在世界其他国家或我们看来,他不像是会成功的样子。

A vulnerable world needs an America characterized by clarity of thought and leadership that projects optimism and progress. “Make America Great Again” and “America First” are all very well as bumper stickers, but the foreign policy of the United States needs to be more than a campaign slogan.

一个脆弱的世界需要一个以清晰的思维和领导力为特征的美国,将乐观与进步展现出来。“让美国恢复伟大荣光”和“美国优先”是很好的车贴标语,但制定美国的外交政策需要的不只是一句竞选口号。

So we would advise the president to give an address that offers a bold statement of his vision, including his determination to provide America’s leadership in the effort to shape a more stable world. This speech should not be a detailed blueprint for American foreign policy, but rather serve as a much-needed reminder that the president of the United States is on watch, is actively engaged and has a sense of historical direction.

所以我们会建议总统发表一次演讲,大胆宣布他的愿景,包括他在塑造一个更稳定的世界的努力中让美国发挥领导作用的决心。这次发言不应是美国外交政策的详细蓝图,而应作为一个迫切需要的提醒,让世人知道美国总统依然在岗,在积极参与,而且保持着历史的方向感。

What we need to hear from our president is why America is important to the world and why the world needs America. At the same time, he can take advantage of the opportunity to point out what the United States expects from the world.

我们需要听总统讲述的是,为什么美国对这个世界十分重要,为什么这个世界需要美国。与此同时,他可以利用这个机会指出美国对世界的期待是什么。

We may disagree with President Trump on day-to-day decisions, but we urge him to recognize that the ideal long-term solution is one in which the three militarily dominant powers — the United States, China and Russia — work together to support global stability.

我们或许并不同意特朗普总统的日常决策,但我们敦促他承认,理想的长期解决方案是三个军事主导大国——美国、中国和俄罗斯——协力维持全球稳定。

Much hinges on the degree to which America and China can engage in successful dialogue. This would open the way for a more serious, strategic Sino-American understanding. That, in turn, could create the basis for a more lasting understanding among all three major powers, since Russia would realize that if it were not included in a Sino-American accommodation, its interests would be at risk.

这在很大程度上取决于美国和中国的对话能取得多大的成功。这将为更严肃、更有战略性的中美谅解开辟道路。反过来也能为三个大国之间更持久的理解打下基础,因为俄罗斯如果没有包含在中美和解关系中,它将会意识到自己的利益存在风险。

America must also be mindful of the danger that China and Russia could form a strategic alliance. For this reason, the United States must take care not to act toward China as though it were a subordinate: this would almost guarantee a closer tie between China and Russia.

美国必须考虑到中国与俄罗斯达成战略联盟的危险。因此美国得注意对待中国的方式不要像是它是次要的:几乎可以肯定那将导致中国与俄罗斯达成更紧密的关系。

More immediately worrying is the problem posed by North Korea, which will require increased cooperation among North Korea’s more powerful neighbors, including China and Japan (and potentially Russia), as well as the United States. Isolated American efforts are unlikely to move Pyongyang in a positive direction.

更紧迫的担忧是朝鲜导致的问题,这要求包括中国和日本(可能还有俄罗斯)在内的朝鲜更强大的邻国,以及美国加强合作。美国单独的努力不太可能让平壤朝着积极的方向转变。

If the United States is to improve its relationship with Russia, it must renew both sides’ acknowledgment that a commitment to abide by law is central to the international order. A superficial show of better relations must not be a cover for deception, maneuvering or violence against weaker neighbors. President Trump’s desire for constructive engagement with Russia is sensible, but there has to be a framework of acceptable conduct that, unfortunately, does not exist at present.

如果美国要改善与俄罗斯的关系,就必须重申双方的共识,即遵守法律的承诺是国际秩序的核心。不能用更良好关系的表面文章掩盖欺骗、操纵或对更弱的邻居实施武力的行为。特朗普总统与俄罗斯达成建设性关系的渴望是切合实际的,但必须有一个可接受的行为框架。不幸的是,这个框架目前并不存在。

Russia is confronted by non-Russian former Soviet republics like Ukraine and Uzbekistan consolidating their independence, while China’s economic penetration of Central Asia has also reduced Russia’s role in that region. The stakes for all three major powers are high, but so are the potential rewards — and they know it.

俄罗斯要面对正在巩固其独立地位的乌克兰和乌兹别克斯坦等非俄罗斯民族的前苏共和国,中国在中亚的经济渗透也削弱了俄罗斯在那一地区的地位。三个大国承受的风险都很高,但潜在的回报也很大——它们知道这一点。

In the near term, America should aim for specific regional agreements with partners like Japan and Britain, as these relationships will be essential for managing regional affairs. In this regard, the administration’s steps to reaffirm America’s commitment to defend Japan and South Korea are encouraging. But as the linchpin of NATO, America must also be ready to defend Western and Central Europe.

在近期内,美国应该致力于和日本、英国等盟友达成特定的地区协议,因为这些关系在管理地区事务方面将是至关重要的。在这方面,本届政府重申美国保护日本和韩国安全承诺的举措,令人感到鼓舞。但作为北约(NATO)的关键角色,美国也必须做好准备,维护西欧与中欧的安全。

With his background, President Trump knows the power of business. The United States should make clear to Russia that any military incursion into Europe, including the “little green men” tactics seen at the beginning of the conflict in eastern Ukraine, would incur a punitive blockade of Russia’s maritime access to the West that would affect nearly two-thirds of all Russian seaborne trade.

凭借自身的背景,特朗普深知商业的力量。美国应该向俄罗斯明确表示,任何侵犯欧洲的军事行动,包括在东乌克兰冲突开始时采取的“小绿人”策略,都将导致俄罗斯通向西方的海道遭到惩罚性封锁——这将影响俄罗斯近三分之二的海运贸易。

Given the Trump administration’s abysmal performance so far in installing a leadership capable of strategic decision making, it is crucial that America and the world hear a vision of leadership and commitment from our president. A Trump Doctrine, any doctrine more or less, is sorely needed.

考虑到特朗普政府截至目前在形成能做出战略决策的领导力方面表现糟糕,让美国和世界听我们的总统谈谈自己在领导力和承诺方面的愿景就十分关键。特朗普主义——不管是什么,总有一点——是十分必要的。

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