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我们该如何摆脱特朗普?

更新时间:2017-2-20 19:07:10 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

How Can We Get Rid of Trump?
我们该如何摆脱特朗普?

We’re just a month into the Trump presidency, and already so many are wondering: How can we end it?

特朗普刚当了一个月的总统,就有太多人在琢磨:我们如何才能结束这一切?

One poll from Public Policy Polling found that as many Americans — 46 percent — favor impeachment of President Trump as oppose it. Ladbrokes, the betting website, offers even odds that Trump will resign or leave office through impeachment before his term ends.

来自公共政策民意调查公司(Public Policy Polling)的一项民调显示,赞成弹劾特朗普总统的美国人比例与反对这样做的美国人比例相当,均为46%。博彩网站立博(Ladbrokes)就特朗普将因遭到弹劾而在任期结束前辞职或离职开出的赔率基本上为1比1。

Sky Bet, another site, is taking wagers on whether Trump will be out of office by July.

另一个网站天空博彩(Sky Bet)正把特朗普是否将在7月前离职作为投注标的。

There have been more than 1,000 references to “Watergate” in the news media in the last week, according to the Nexis archival site, with even some conservatives calling for Trump’s resignation or warning that he could be pushed out. Dan Rather, the former CBS News anchor who covered Watergate, says that Trump’s Russia scandal isn’t now at the level of Watergate but could become at least as big.

来自文献网站Nexis的数据显示,新闻媒体上周共提及“水门事件”1000余次;一些保守派人士甚至还敦促特朗普辞职,或警告称他会被赶下台。报道过水门事件的CBS新闻(CBS News)前主播丹·拉瑟(Dan Rather)说,特朗普的俄罗斯丑闻目前尚未发酵到水门事件的程度,但这件事至少会闹得同样大。

Maybe things will settle down. But what is striking about Trump is not just the dysfunction of his administration but also the — vigorously denied — allegations that Trump’s team may have cooperated with Vladimir Putin to steal the election. What’s also different is the broad concern that Trump is both: A) unfit for office, and B) dangerously unstable. One pro-American leader in a foreign country called me up the other day and skipped the preliminaries, starting with: “What the [expletive] is wrong with your country?”

局面也许会稳定下来。但关于特朗普,令人震惊的不只是他的政府运转不灵,还有受到大力否认的指控:特朗普的团队或曾与弗拉基米尔·普京(Vladimir Putin)合作,通过作弊赢得大选。另外一个不同之处在于,外界普遍担心特朗普既不适合当总统,又不稳定到了危险的程度。一名亲美的外国领导人不久前打电话给我时,略去寒暄之辞,开口便是:“你们的国家到底出了[脏字]什么毛病?”

So let’s investigate: Is there any way out?

那么就让我们研究一下:还有没有什么出路?

Trump still has significant political support, so the obstacles are gargantuan. But the cleanest and quickest way to remove a president involves Section 4 of the 25th Amendment and has never been attempted. It provides that the cabinet can, by a simple majority vote, strip the president of his powers and immediately hand power to the vice president. The catch is that the ousted president can object, and in that case Congress must approve the ouster by a two-thirds vote in each chamber, or the president regains office.

特朗普在政治上仍然受到不可小觑的支持,因此障碍是巨大的。但罢黜总统有一个最简洁也最快速的办法,牵涉第二十五修正案第四款,迄今为止从未被启用过。它规定,内阁可以通过简单多数投票剥夺总统的权力,并将权力立即移交给副总统。问题是被罢黜的总统可以表示反对,这样一来国会必须以参众两院的三分之二多数票通过罢黜案,否则总统将继续留在任上。

The 25th Amendment route is to be used when a president is “unable” to carry out his duties. I asked Laurence Tribe, the Harvard professor of constitutional law, whether that could mean not just physical incapacity, but also mental instability. Or, say, the taint of having secretly colluded with Russia to steal an election?

启用第二十五修正案的办法可以在总统“没有能力”履行职责的情况下使用。我问过哈佛大学(Harvard)宪法教授劳伦斯·H·特赖布(Laurence H. Tribe),这是否不光意味着生理上的力不从心,还意味着精神状态的不稳定。又或者是与俄罗斯秘密勾结通过作弊赢得大选的污点?

Tribe said that he believed Section 4 could be used in such a situation.

特赖布说他认为第四款可以被用于这种情况。

“In the unlikely event that Pence and a majority of Trump’s bizarre cabinet were to grow the spine needed to do the right thing with the process set up by that provision, we would surely be in a situation where a very large majority of the public, including a very substantial percentage of Trump’s supporters, would back if not insist upon such a move,” Tribe said. “In that circumstance, I can’t imagine Trump and his lawyers succeeding in getting the federal courts to interfere.”

“如果出现不太可能出现的情形,也就是彭斯(Pence)以及特朗普的诡异内阁中的大多数成员鼓足勇气,想要按照该条文规定的程序去做正确的事,我们肯定可以看到大多数公众,其中包括特朗普的一大批支持者,即便不是坚决要求采取这一举措,也会表示支持,”特赖布说。“在这种情况下,我认为特朗普及其律师无法让联邦法院介入。”

The better known route is impeachment. But for now it’s hard to imagine a majority of the House voting to impeach, and even less conceivable that two-thirds of the Senate would vote to convict so that Trump would be removed. Moreover, impeachment and trial in the Senate would drag on for months, paralyzing America and leaving Trump in office with his finger on the nuclear trigger.

更为众所周知的办法是弹劾。但目前来看难以想象众议院的大多数成员会投票赞成弹劾,更别说三分之二的参议院成员会投票通过弹劾案从而让特朗普被解职了。此外,参议院的弹劾聆讯过程可能拖延数月,在让美国处于瘫痪状态的同时,让特朗普得以留在白宫,并把手指放在核按钮上。

My take is that unless things get much worse, removal may be a liberal fantasy. Progressives thought that Trump would never win the nomination or the election. He survived the “Access Hollywood” tape and countless crises that pundits thought would doom him, so it’s not clear why Republicans would desert him now that he’s president.

我的看法是,除非局面变得更糟糕,否则解除总统的职务可能只是自由派的幻想。进步派人士曾经以为特朗普决不会获得提名或赢得大选。专家们曾经以为《走进好莱坞》(Access Hollywood)的录音带以及数不胜数的危机会让他的白宫梦化为泡影,但他挺了过来。因此在他已经成为总统之际,尚不清楚共和党有什么理由抛弃他。

Some people believe that the 2018 midterm elections will be so catastrophic for the G.O.P. that everyone will be ready to get rid of him. I’m skeptical. In the Senate, the map is disastrous for Democrats in 2018: The Republicans will be defending only eight Senate seats, while Democrats will in effect be defending 25.

一些人认为,2018年的中期选举对共和党来说将是一场极大的灾难,会导致每个人都会准备搞掉他。我对此表示怀疑。在参议院,民主党2018年的前景殊为不妙:共和党届时将只需捍卫8个参议院席位,而民主党实际上要捍卫25个席位。

So while Democrats can gnash their teeth, it’ll be up to Republicans to decide whether to force Trump out. And that won’t happen unless they see him as ruining their party as well as the nation.

因此,民主党虽然咬牙切齿,但是否迫使特朗普出局这一决定将由共和党来做。除非他们觉得特朗普正在毁掉他们的党以及这个国家,否则这种事是不会发生的。

“The only incentive for Republicans to act — with or without the cabinet — is the same incentive Republicans had in 1974 to insist on Nixon’s resignation,” Larry Sabato of the University of Virginia told me. “The incentive is survival.”

“能让共和党——也许是和内阁一道,也许是撇开内阁——采取行动的唯一动力,与共和党在1974年坚持要求尼克松辞职的动力相同,”弗吉尼亚大学的拉里·萨巴托(Larry Sabato)告诉我。“这一动力就是生存。”

Trump does have one weakness, and it’s parallel to Nixon’s. Republicans in Congress were willing to oust Nixon partly because they vastly preferred his vice president, Gerald Ford — just as congressional Republicans prefer Mike Pence today.

特朗普的确有一个软肋,和尼克松的软肋颇为类似。想当初,共和党国会议员之所以乐于把尼克松赶下台,在某种程度上是因为他们极为青睐副总统杰拉德·福特(Gerald Ford)——就如同现如今的共和党国会议员喜欢麦克·彭斯(Mike Pence)一样。

If I were betting, I’d say we’re stuck with Trump for four years. But as Sabato says: “Lots of things about Donald Trump’s election and early presidency have been shocking. Why should it stop now?”

如果要我赌一把,我觉得我们在未来四年里是甩不掉特朗普的。但正如萨巴托所言:“关于特朗普的当选及其入主白宫之初的情况,有太多事令人惊讶。现在为什么就不会再有惊人的事情发生呢?”

And what does it say about a presidency that, just one month into it, we’re already discussing whether it can be ended early?

此外,一位总统刚上任一个月,我们就已经在讨论是否可以提早结束其任期,这说明了什么?

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