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马云们从特朗普那里学到了什么?

更新时间:2017-2-15 10:21:30 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Asian Tech Titans Take a Page From Trump’s Book
马云们从特朗普那里学到了什么?

HONG KONG — In his book on deal making, President Trump offered a key piece of advice on getting what you want: Promise big.

香港——特朗普总统在自己的书中谈起做生意时,对如何得到你想要的东西提出了一条关键建议:做出宏大的承诺。

“I play to people’s fantasies,” he said in 1987’s “The Art of the Deal.” “People want to believe that something is the biggest and the greatest and the most spectacular. I call it truthful hyperbole. It’s an innocent form of exaggeration — and a very effective form of promotion.”

“我会满足人们的幻想,”他在1987年的《交易的艺术》(The Art of the Deal)中说。“人们愿意相信某种东西是最大的、最棒的、最了不起的。我称之为真诚的夸张。它是一种善意的夸张形式,一种非常有效的宣传方式。”

Some of Asia’s biggest deal makers already understand that principle — and are making big promises accordingly.

亚洲最重要的一些生意人已经领会了这项原则,正在做出宏大的承诺。

In recent months, Alibaba’s founder, Jack Ma; the Japanese tech investor Masayoshi Son; and the head of Foxconn, Terry Gou, have made big, public plans to invest in America. Together, the deals proposed would help to create more than a million new American jobs and tens of billions of dollars in new investments.

近几个月,阿里巴巴集团创始人马云、日本科技投资人孙正义(Masayoshi Son)和富士康总裁郭台铭(Terry Gou)公开发表了在美国投资的宏大计划。这些提议中的项目总计将帮助为美国创造100多万个新工作机会和数百亿美元的新投资。

Their promises have set off a host of other offerings from Asia in recent weeks — even if those offerings are not entirely new or solid. Toyota Motor of Japan promised last month to spend $10 billion in the United States over the next five years, which would essentially match its previous spending levels. News reports that Samsung of South Korea may also build an American plant won praise from Mr. Trump on Twitter. Samsung said it continued “to evaluate new investment needs in the U.S. that can help us best serve our customers.”

近几周,他们的承诺引发了亚洲的其他众多提议——尽管那些提议并不是全新的或可靠的。上个月,日本丰田汽车公司(Toyota Motor)承诺未来五年在美国投资100亿美元,这基本上与该公司之前的投资水平相当。新闻报道称,韩国的三星公司也可能在美国建厂——特朗普在Twitter上称赞了这条消息。三星表示,它会继续“评估在美国的投资新需要,帮助我们为客户提供最佳服务”。

In contrast, American firms have made largely symbolic or modest promises to keep a small number of jobs in the United States, while European companies have been mostly silent. Only Intel seems to have borrowed a page from the Asian tycoon playbook, as its chief executive, Brian Krzanich, appeared with Mr. Trump to announce a $7 billion Arizona plant that was conceived in 2011 and then delayed.

相比之下,美国公司大多只做出象征性的或适度承诺,在美国保留少量工作机会,而欧洲公司则大多保持沉默。只有英特尔公司(Intel)似乎效仿这位美国大亨的游戏规则,它的首席执行官科再奇(Brian Krzanich)和特朗普一起亮相,宣布在亚利桑那州投资70亿美元建厂,该计划构想于2011年,后来被延迟。

The promises from the big Asian business leaders will be tough to keep, experts say. But they show that Asia’s tech titans see a familiar figure in Mr. Trump.

专家表示,这些亚洲商业领袖的承诺很难实现。但它们表明,亚洲的科技巨头在特朗普身上看到了一个熟悉的身影。

American leaders have largely shied from interfering in individual business decisions, instead relying on competitiveness to keep American companies ahead in a global market. But Mr. Trump’s focus on job protection, tariffs and the dictating of terms to business leaders is closer to the more mercantilist outlook that Mr. Ma, Mr. Son and Mr. Gou see to varying degrees in China, Japan, Taiwan and other places in Asia.

美国领导人大多避免介入个人商业决定,而是依靠竞争力保持美国公司在全球市场上的领先地位。但是特朗普对保护工作、关税以及商界领袖强制要求的关注更接近马云、孙正义和郭台铭在中国、日本、台湾以及亚洲其他地方看到的不同程度的重商主义面貌。

“They see where this guy Trump is coming from, and, at a visceral level, identify with him,” said Alberto Moel, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein.

“他们看出这个叫特朗普的家伙是什么样的人,而且本能地认同他,”桑福德·伯恩斯坦公司(Sanford C. Bernstein)的分析师阿尔贝托·默尔(Alberto Moel)说。

“It plays directly into their style,” he said. “These guys are political animals. They live in Asia, where things are different. There’s more autocracy and more connected transactions. In the U.S., people still expect things to be fair.”

“这与他们的风格不谋而合,”他说。“这些家伙都是政治动物。他们生活在亚洲,那里的情况是不一样的。有更多独裁,更多关联交易。而在美国,人们仍然期待公平行事。”

The Asian executives come from a region Mr. Trump accuses of using unfair trade practices and stealing American jobs — and all three have a lot to lose. It is not clear whether their lofty promises will lead to better treatment from the Trump administration.

这些亚洲高管来自一个特朗普指责利用不公平贸易行为和窃取美国工作机会的地区——三家企业都会面临巨大损失。目前还不清楚他们美好的承诺是否会换来特朗普政府的优待。

Alibaba, which has shares that trade in the United States, has been under fire there for the fakes that proliferate on its Chinese sales platforms. It also has an eye toward expanding into places like Hollywood. Mr. Son’s SoftBank owns Sprint, the American telecom company, and has long desired to expand.

因其在中国的销售平台上假货泛滥,在美国上市和交易股票的阿里巴巴在这里备受打击。它也在着眼于扩展市场,进入好莱坞等市场。孙正义的软银公司掌控着美国电信企业Sprint,一直以来他都渴望进一步扩大地盘。

Foxconn — a Taiwan-based company with many factories in China — assembles iPhones and other gadgets for Apple, which Mr. Trump has said should make its products in America. Foxconn also has plants in Mexico that benefit under the North American Free Trade Agreement.

总部位于台湾、在中国有多家工厂的富士康为苹果公司(Apple)组装iPhone等产品。特朗普曾表示这家公司应该将生产环节放到美国。受益于《北美自由贸易协议》(North American Free Trade Agreement),富士康在墨西哥也有工厂。

A SoftBank spokesman said, “Mr. Son was greatly encouraged by the economic agenda of the new administration, and he intends to invest significant resources in the U.S. in the years ahead.” A Foxconn spokeswoman said that the company was evaluating an investment in America and that it expected a new American project would create “many direct and indirect job opportunities.” An Alibaba spokeswoman declined to comment.

软银公司的一位发言人表示,“新政府的经济议程极大鼓舞了孙正义,他有意于未来数年在美国投资大量资源。”富士康的一位女发言人则表示,该公司正在评估一项在美投资,它预计一个新的美国项目会创造“许多直接和间接的工作机会”。阿里巴巴的一位女发言人拒绝予以置评。

Of course, the United States has a long history of supporting its homegrown industries. Still, East Asian governments often intervene more directly in business, and many of Mr. Trump’s proposals suggest he wants to adopt similar strategies.

当然,在支持本土工业方面,美国有着悠久的历史。但东亚各国政府往往是更直接地干预商业行为,特朗普的许多提议显示他也想采取类似的策略。

In China, government officials give public and financial support to building up industries to make the country less dependent on exports. In Japan, the government is supporting a new effort to build an aerospace industry. In South Korea, the government has lavished subsidies and tax breaks on its largest exporters, like Hyundai and Samsung.

在中国,政府官员给予公共和财务上的支持,促进行业发展,以便让这个国家更少依赖出口。在日本,政府正在支持一项打造航天航空工业的新努力。在韩国,政府为现代和三星等最大的出口企业提供慷慨的补贴和税收优惠。

Even Mr. Trump’s public praise and cajoling, including the photo ops in Trump Tower and the Twitter posts broadcasting investment vows as political victories, have an East Asian feel.

就连特朗普的公开称赞和劝诱——包括在特朗普大厦(Trump Tower)的合影机会,以及在Twitter上像发布政治成果一样宣布投资承诺的帖子——也有一种东亚的感觉。

“In Japan and China you need to go through these rituals,” said Willy Shih, a professor at Harvard Business School. “You could argue that looking at Mr. Trump, they’re saying, ‘O.K., I have to figure out what the ritual is and go through it,’ and these guys know how to do that stuff.”

“在日本和中国,你需要经过这些程式,”哈佛商学院(Harvard Business School)教授史兆威(Willy Shih)说。“可以说,他们在看着特朗普说,‘好,我必须搞清楚这个程式是什么,然后完成它,’这些家伙知道怎么做那些事。”

The first to pay homage to Mr. Trump was Mr. Son, who in a meeting late last year vowed a $50 billion investment that he said would create 50,000 jobs.

第一个向特朗普致敬的是孙正义,他在去年底的一次会面中承诺进行一项价值500亿美元的投资,并表示这会创造5万个工作机会。

Then in January, Mr. Ma of Alibaba assured Mr. Trump that small businesses selling goods on his websites in China would add a million new American jobs. More recently, Mr. Gou of Foxconn said at a news conference that Foxconn was considering a $7 billion investment in a flat-panel production facility in Pennsylvania that could create up to 50,000 jobs.

接着,阿里巴巴的马云在今年1月向特朗普保证,在他位于中国的网站上销售商品的小企业将给美国增加100万个新的工作机会。更近一些,富士康的郭台铭在一次新闻发布会上表示,该公司正考虑在宾夕法尼亚州投资70亿美元建造一座平板生产设施,这项投资将创造5万个工作机会。

In all three cases, the Asian companies appear to have fostered good will.

在以上三个例子中,这些亚洲企业似乎都抱着良好的意愿。

After meeting with Mr. Ma, Mr. Trump said that the Alibaba founder loved America and China and that the two of them would “do some great things.”

在与马云会面之后,特朗普曾表示,这位阿里巴巴创始人热爱美国和中国,他们两人会“做一些大事”。

It is not clear how many of the pledges will come to pass.

目前还不清楚这些承诺有多少会兑现。

Mr. Gou has cautioned that the Pennsylvania plant is more a wish than a promise. Putting a flat-panel production center in Pennsylvania places it far from the electronics supply chain that crisscrosses Asia. There is also less experience in building such factories in the United States, and regulatory risks could threaten to turn a multibillion-dollar investment into a big money loser if there are delays in opening it.

郭台铭提醒,宾夕法尼亚工厂更多是一种愿望,而非承诺。在宾夕法尼亚建造一个平板生产中心,会让它远离分布在亚洲各地的电子产品供应链。在建造此类工厂上,他们经验也更少,如果开业时间拖延,监管风险可能将一项数十亿美元的投资变成一个巨大的亏损企业。

“They’re making these promises that I wouldn’t say they have no intention of keeping, but they’re less a promise than an aspiration,” Mr. Moel said. “If they have to they’ll do it, but they’d rather not.”

“我不会说他在做出无意兑现的承诺,但与其说它们是承诺,不如说是一种渴望,”默尔说。“如果没有别的选择,他们会兑现,但他们宁可不要这样。”

All three of the tech leaders are consummate showmen and self-promoters. Mr. Ma says he would like Alibaba to span three centuries by sticking around for at least 102 years. In a recent investor letter he said that in the next 20 years the company would create 100 million jobs. Mr. Son has a 300-year plan for SoftBank, and he often follows up big deals with big promises.

三家技术公司的领导人都是技艺精湛的表演者和自我推销者。马云表示,他希望阿里巴巴能至少存在102年,由此跨越三个世纪。在最近一封致股东的信件中,他表示在接下来的20年里,这家公司将创造1亿个工作机会。孙正义期待软银长存300年,他常常跟进有重大承诺的重大交易。

In places like China, Mr. Gou has used the lure of a huge factory to extract major tax breaks. But in other countries, such as Indonesia, long talks about building a plant failed to bear fruit.

在中国等地方,郭台铭利用建大厂的诱惑获取了不少税收优惠。但在其他国家,比如印度尼西亚,有关建厂的谈判持续了很久,也没能达成什么成果。

Still, their tactics could work with a president who has said he wants to emulate East Asian tactics even as he fights them over jobs.

不过,他们的策略或许会对一位总统有效。这位总统曾表示,他想模仿东亚策略,尽管他在与他们争夺工作机会。

“We got to bring back the jobs from Japan, and all these countries that are ripping us off,” he said at one campaign event. But he added, “I don’t hold it against these other countries. I mean, if they can get away with it, let them do it. I want to get away with things.”

“我们得把工作从日本拿回,从所有占我们便宜的国家拿回,”他在一次竞选活动中说。他还表示,“我不会因此对这些国家抱有成见。我是说,如果他们能免于惩罚,就随它去。我也想做事能免于惩罚。”

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