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特朗普的美国只会更糟糕

更新时间:2017-1-24 18:48:32 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Things Can Only Get Worse
特朗普的美国只会更糟糕

If America had a parliamentary system, Donald Trump — who spent his first full day in office having a temper tantrum, railing against accurate reports of small crowds at his inauguration — would already be facing a vote of no confidence. But we don’t; somehow we’re going to have to survive four years of this.

唐纳德·特朗普(Donald Trump)入主白宫后,把整整第一天都用来大发雷霆,怒斥关于总统就职典礼人数较少的准确报道,如果美国也实行议会制,他可能已经得面对不信任投票了。然而我们不是;我们还得熬过接下来的四年。

And how is he going to react to disappointing numbers about things that actually matter?

如果真正重要的事情令人失望,那么他又会如何反应呢?

In his lurid, ghastly Inaugural Address, Mr. Trump portrayed a nation in dire straits — “American carnage.” The real America looks nothing like that; it has plenty of problems, but things could be worse. In fact, it’s likely that they will indeed get worse. How will a man who evidently can’t handle even the smallest blow to his ego deal with it?

在他粗俗可怕的就职演说中,特朗普描绘了一个处于严重困境的国家——“美国的浩劫”。真正的美国看起来根本不是这样;它确实有很多问题,但事情本可能更糟。事实上,它们很有可能确实会变得更糟。显然,就算自尊遭受了最小的一点打击,这位总统都没有办法处理,到时他可怎么应付呢?

Let’s talk about the predictable bad news.

让我们谈谈可以预见的坏消息。

First, the economy. Listening to Mr. Trump, you might have thought America was in the midst of a full-scale depression, with “rusted-out factories scattered like tombstones across the landscape of our nation.” Manufacturing employment is indeed down since 2000; but overall employment is way up, and the unemployment rate is low by historical standards.

第一,经济。听了特朗普的话,你可能会觉得美国正处在全面的萧条中,“生锈的工厂像墓碑一样遍布在我们国家的土地上”。2000年以来,制造业的就业率确实出现了下降;但整体就业率却在上升,以历史标准看来,如今的失业率是很低的。

And it’s not just one number that looks pretty good: Rising wages and the growing number of Americans confident enough to quit their jobs suggest an economy close to full employment.

这不仅是一个看起来不错的数字:工资上涨,以及越来越多的美国人有信心辞职,表明经济接近充分就业。

What this means is that unemployment probably can’t fall much from here, so that even with good policies and good luck, job creation will be much slower than it was in the Obama years. And since bad stuff does happen, there’s a strong likelihood that unemployment will be higher four years from now than it is today.

这意味着,今后的失业率可能不会比现在下降很多,所以,就算有良好的政策和好运气,就业岗位的创造还是会比奥巴马时代缓慢得多。而且由于不好的事情确实发生了,从现在起到四年以后,失业率很有可能高于今天。

Oh, and Trumpist budget deficits will probably widen the trade deficit, so that manufacturing employment in particular is likely to fall, not rise.

噢对了,特朗普主张的预算赤字可能会扩大贸易逆差,这使得制造业的就业率尤其可能出现下降,而不是上升。

A second front on which things will almost surely get worse is health care. Obamacare caused the percentage of Americans without insurance to fall sharply, to the lowest level ever. Repeal would send the numbers right back up — 18 million newly uninsured in just the first year, eventually rising to more than 30 million, according to Congressional Budget Office estimates. And no, Republicans who have spent seven years failing to come up with a real replacement won’t develop one in the next few weeks, or ever.

第二件几乎肯定会变得更糟的事情是医疗保健。奥巴马医改(Obamacare)导致没有保险的美国人的百分比急剧下降,达到最低水平。根据国会预算办公室(Congressional Budget Office)的估计,废除奥巴马医改将会导致无保险者人数急剧上升——第一年就将有1800万的新增无保险者,最终会超过3000万。不,共和党花了七年时间都没有拿出一个真正的奥巴马医改替代方案,他们不会在未来几个星期之内弄出一个,以后也不会。

On a third front, crime, the future direction is unclear. The Trump vision of an urban America ravaged by “the crime and the gangs and the drugs” is a dystopian fantasy: Violent crime is, in fact, way down despite highly publicized recent murder increases in a few cities. Crime could, I suppose, fall further, but it could also rise. What we do know is that the Trump administration can’t pacify America’s urban war zones, because those zones don’t exist.

在第三个方面,也就是犯罪问题上,未来的方向还不清楚。特朗普眼中,美国的城市正被“犯罪、帮派和毒品”蹂躏,这个景象是一种反乌托邦式的幻想:事实上,尽管近来受到大量宣传的谋杀事件在一些城市有所增加,暴力犯罪率其实是在下降。我想,犯罪率有可能进一步下降,但也有可能上升。我们所能知道的是,特朗普政府不能平定美国的城市战争地带,因为这些地带根本就不存在。

So how will Mr. Trump handle the bad news of rising unemployment, plunging health coverage, and little if any crime reduction? That’s obvious: He’ll deny reality, the way he always does when it threatens his narcissism. But will his supporters go along with his fantasy?

那么,特朗普先生将如何处理失业率上升、医保覆盖率下降和犯罪率下降不多(如果有)的坏消息?这是显而易见的:他会否认现实,当他的自恋受到威胁时,他总是这样做。但他的支持者会赞同他的幻想吗?

They might. After all, they blocked out the good news from the Obama era. Two-thirds of Trump voters believe, falsely, that the unemployment rate rose under Obama. (Three-quarters believe George Soros is paying people to protest Mr. Trump.) Only 17 percent of self-identified Republicans are aware that the number of uninsured is at a historic low. Most people thought crime was rising even when it was falling. So maybe they will block out bad news in the Trump years.

他们有可能。毕竟,他们把奥巴马时代的好消息都屏蔽掉了。在特朗普的选民中,有2/3的人错误地认为,奥巴马时期的失业率出现上升(3/4的特朗普投票者认为乔治·索罗斯[George Soros]出钱让人抗议特朗普)。在自认为共和党的人当中,只有17%知道,没有参保的人数达到历史低点。大多数人认为犯罪率在上升,尽管应该是正在下降。所以在特朗普统治期间,他们也许会把坏消息屏蔽掉。

But it probably won’t be that easy. For one thing, people tend to attribute improvements in their personal situation to their own efforts; surely many voters who gained jobs over the past eight years believe that they did it despite, not thanks to, Obama policies. Will they correspondingly blame themselves, not Donald Trump, for lost jobs and health insurance? Unlikely.

但这可能不会那么容易。一方面,人们倾向于将个人情况的改善归功于自己的努力;许多选民在过去八年中获得了工作机会,但他们肯定会相信,这是凭他们自己的力量做到的,不是因为奥巴马的政策。如果失去工作和健康保险,他们也会相应地责怪自己,而不是唐纳德·特朗普吗?不太可能。

On top of that, Mr. Trump made big promises during the campaign, so the risk of disillusionment is especially high.

此外,特朗普在竞选期间做出了巨大的承诺,所以幻想破灭的风险也特别高。

Will he respond to bad news by accepting responsibility and trying to do better? Will he renounce his fortune and enter a monastery? That seems equally likely.

对于坏消息,他的反应会是接受责任,以及努力做到更好吗?他会放弃自己的财产,进入修道院吗?二者的可能性似乎是一样的。

No, the insecure egomaniac-in-chief will almost surely deny awkward truths, and berate the media for reporting them. And — this is what worries me — it’s very likely that he’ll try to use his power to shoot the messengers.

不,对于令人尴尬的真相,这个充满不安全感的自大狂几乎肯定会予以否认,并斥责报道真相的媒体。而且——这是我所担心的——他很可能会试图动用自己的权力来封杀言论。

Seriously, how do you think the man who compared the C.I.A. to Nazis will react when the Bureau of Labor Statistics first reports a significant uptick in unemployment or decline in manufacturing jobs? What’s he going to do when the Centers for Disease Control and the Census Bureau report spiking numbers of uninsured Americans?

说真的,当第一次听到劳工统计局报告失业率显著增加,或者制造业就业岗位出现降低的时候,你觉得这个把中情局比作纳粹的人会怎么做?当疾病控制中心和人口普查局报告没有保险的美国人数量激增时,他会怎么做?

You may have thought that last weekend’s temper tantrum was bad. But there’s much, much worse to come.

你可能以为上周末的大发雷霆很不好。但是糟糕得多的事情还会到来。

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