您现在的位置: 纽约时报中英文网 >> 纽约时报中英文版 >> 观点 >> 正文

别用冷战眼光看待今天的欧洲政治

更新时间:2016-12-23 10:57:52 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

The Cold War Isn’t Back. So Don’t Think Like It Is.
别用冷战眼光看待今天的欧洲政治

Being Bulgarian, I can tell you that international news media cover elections in small European countries the same way a literature professor reads a spy novel during a summer holiday: It’s a pleasant diversion, but one quickly forgets the characters, and it doesn’t really matter if the narrative gets scrambled. Normally, this is not a problem, but it can become one next year.

作为一名保加利亚人,我可以告诉你,国际新闻媒体报道欧洲小国选举的方式,和文学教授在暑假期间看间谍小说并无二致:是一种令人愉快的消遣,但看的人很快便会忘记故事里的人物,叙事乱作一团也无所谓。通常来说,这不是问题,但明年,它却可能变成一个问题。

In 2017 there will be elections not only in Germany, France and the Netherlands but also most likely in Greece, Italy and, again, Bulgaria. This will be a moment of truth for Europe. Social media is being invaded by fake news and conspiracy theories, while mainstream outlets are obsessed with the Kremlin’s interference in the electoral politics of Western democracies. Moscow’s meddling has become a universal explanation for everything that happens on Europe’s periphery and, it seems, elsewhere, too. So it’s critical that people get the story right. But that will not be easy.

在2017年,不仅德国、法国和荷兰会举行选举,希腊、意大利和保加利亚也极有可能举行选举。对欧洲来说,这将是接受考验的时刻。眼下,社交媒体上充斥着假新闻和阴谋论,主流新闻机构则执迷于克里姆林宫干预西方民主国家的选举政治。莫斯科的干预成了一个通用的解释,适用于欧洲范围内发生的一切,而且似乎也适用于其他地方。因此,民众正确了解事情真相至关重要。但这并非易事。

Take the November presidential elections here in Bulgaria: The international news media portrayed the victory of Rumen Radev, a United States-trained Air Force general who ran as an independent, as yet another triumph for President Vladimir V. Putin of Russia, and further proof of his growing influence in Eastern Europe. That the Bulgarian election more or less coincided with Moldova’s, in which a Russia-backed candidate won, as well as the reports of a failed pro-Russian coup attempt in Montenegro, led many to the conclusion that Russia was regaining its traditional sphere of influence.

以保加利亚11月举行的总统选举为例:以独立候选人身份参选的鲁门·拉德夫(Rumen Radev)是一名接受过美国训练的空军上将,但国际新闻媒体却把他的胜选描绘成俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)的另一场胜利,并称此事进一步证明他在东欧的影响力越来越大。保加利亚的选举或多或少与摩尔多瓦的选举——俄罗斯支持的一名候选人获胜——同期举行,这个事实连同黑山一场亲俄罗斯政变失败的报道,促使很多人断定俄罗斯正在收复其传统势力范围。

Is that really the case?

事实果真如此吗?

Foreign policy was hardly the critical concern for the majority of Bulgarians who cast ballots. And truth be told, Moscow’s influence isn’t creeping into Bulgaria — it’s long been here. A vast majority of Bulgarians value their membership in NATO and, even more, the European Union. But for historical and cultural reasons, most prefer not to see Russia as an enemy. So, unsurprisingly, both General Radev and his center-right opponent advocated lifting sanctions on Russia and improving relations with Moscow.

对投票的大部分保加利亚人来说,外交政策几乎不是他们最关注的问题。而且说实话,莫斯科的势力并不是现在才慢慢渗透进保加利亚的,而是早就在这里了。绝大多数保加利亚人重视自己的北约(NATO)成员国身份,更重视欧盟成员国身份。但因为历史和文化方面的原因,大部分人倾向于不把俄罗斯当敌人。因此,拉德夫将军和他的中右翼政敌均支持解除对俄罗斯的制裁,并改善与莫斯科的关系,也就不足为奇了。

I share this Bulgarian story because the debate over the Kremlin’s alleged interference in the United States’ presidential election has revived a Cold War framework for understanding the world. Political outcomes in small countries tend to be explained as a zero-sum game between Russia and the West. There are three major problems with this approach.

我和大家分享保加利亚的这个故事,是因为围绕克里姆林干预美国大选的说法展开的争论,让冷战时用于认识世界的框架重新出现在了人们面前。小国的政治结果往往会被解释成俄罗斯与西方之间的零和博弈。这种做法存在三大问题。

First, it confuses more than it clarifies. In the 1970s and ‘80s a number of third-world nationalists were caricatured by the West as Communists, despite the fact that they were focused on fighting for independence, not Soviet Communism. The United States and its allies wasted energy warring with them. But misrecognizing nationalists as Communists sometimes became a self-fulfilling prophecy: After being labeled Communist, many of the third-world revolutionary governments indeed became pro-Soviet. The moral is that we should not be surprised if the constant labeling of populist parties and leaders in Europe as “pro-Russian” turns them into the Kremlin’s friends.

首先,与其说它让问题变得明朗,不如说它把问题复杂化了。七八十年代,第三世界许多民族主义者的奋斗目标是独立而不是苏维埃共产主义,但西方罔顾这一事实,夸张地把他们描述成共产主义者。美国及其盟友白费精力地和他们开战。然而,错误地把民族主义者当做共产主义者有时会成为一个自证预言:被贴上共产主义者的标签后,第三世界不少革命政府的确变得亲苏联。这件事告诉我们,如果不断给欧洲的民粹主义政党和领导人贴上“亲俄”标签,他们真变成了克里姆林宫的朋友,我们也不应感到惊讶。

Second, the return of the Cold War narrative is becoming a factor in Russia’s growing international influence. The West’s current obsession with Mr. Putin is at the heart of the Russian president’s newly discovered soft power. If Moscow, as so much of the news media suggest, can really rig the American elections, how could a small Bulgaria, or for that matter even France, trust that anybody but the Kremlin would decide who the next president would be? Russia’s power of attraction today is rooted not in its ideology but in its powerful image. If you believe Mr. Putin’s most zealous opponents, he is winning all the time.

其次,冷战叙事的回归正在成为俄罗斯国际影响力日渐增强的因素之一。西方当前死盯着普京不放,这正是这位俄罗斯总统新近发现的软实力的核心。如果莫斯科确如大量新闻媒体所说,真的能够操纵美国的选举,那么小小的保加利亚——在这个问题上也包括法国——只能听由克里姆林宫来决定下一任总统了。俄罗斯现在吸引关注的能力,根源不在它的意识形态,而在它强大的形象。如果你相信普京的那些最狂热的反对者,那么他一直在获胜。

Finally, in a globalized world, foreign interference in elections is unavoidable. Private citizens — and not only governments — hack email accounts, spread fake news and conspiracy theories, and try to destroy the reputation of foreign leaders. Lone hackers and tiny rogue political groups can easily crash the servers of electoral commissions around the world. We are entering a period in which disruption is becoming an international contest, and many seek money and glory by demonstrating their ability to sow chaos beyond their borders. The Cold War narrative ignores this new reality because it tends to see any subversive activity as the work of states. A result is a growing risk of overreaction and conflict. In the world of mutually assured disruption, more than ever before what matters is the capacity to distinguish between state-inspired and state-run subversion.

最后,在一个全球化的世界里,外国干预选举的情况不可避免。普通公民——不只是政府——也会侵入电子邮件账户、传播假新闻和阴谋论并试图破坏外国领导人的名声。单独行动的黑客和规模极小的流氓政治团体能够轻而易举地侵入全球各地的选举委员会的服务器。我们正在进入这样一个时期,干扰已经成为一种国际性的竞争,很多人通过证明自己能够在国外制造混乱来求取金钱和荣誉。冷战叙事忽视了这个新现实,因为它往往会把一切颠覆活动都当作政府的手法。结果就是,过激反应和冲突的风险不断增加。在这个“相互确保干扰”的世界里,把政府激发和政府组织的颠覆活动区分开来,比以往任何时候都更重要。

So if we do not want 2017 to become, like 1917, a Russian year in history, the news media would be wise to shy away from grand, continentwide story lines that explain everything and look instead for the details that at least explain something. In the end, even in the age of global media, politics remains local.

因此,如果我们不希望2017年变成1917那样的俄罗斯年,新闻媒体的明智之举便是避开那些适用于整个欧洲大陆的、能够解释所有事情的宏大情节,转而寻找那些至少能够解释某一件事的细节。归根结底,即便是在媒体全球化的时代,政治仍是地方性的。

“全文请访问纽约时报中文网,本文发表于纽约时报中文网(http://cn.nytimes.com),版权归纽约时报公司所有。任何单位及个人未经许可,不得擅自转载或翻译。订阅纽约时报中文网新闻电邮:http://nytcn.me/subscription/”

相关文章列表