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北极出现异常高温,冰层覆盖或达历史新低

更新时间:2016-12-22 18:43:43 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Spiking Temperatures in the Arctic Startle Scientists
北极出现异常高温,冰层覆盖或达历史新低

A spate of extreme warmth in the Arctic over the past two months has startled scientists, who warn that the high temperatures may lead to record-low ice coverage next summer and even more warming in a region that is already among the hardest hit by climate change.

过去两个月北极极其温暖,这令科学家们感到震惊。他们警告称,高温可能会导致明年夏季的冰层覆盖达到历史纪录新低,并导致该地区更加温暖。而这里已经是遭受气候变化影响最严重的地区之一。

In mid-November, parts of the Arctic were more than 35 degrees Fahrenheit warmer than observed averages, scientists said, and at the pole itself, mean temperatures for the month were 23 degrees above normal. Although conditions later cooled somewhat, the extreme warmth is expected to return, with temperatures forecast to be as much as 27 degrees above normal beginning Thursday.

科学家们说,11月中旬,北极部分地区的气温比之前观测的平均温度高出35华氏度以上,而在极点,当月的平均气温比正常高出23度。虽然后来气温略微回落,但是极端温暖还会再次出现,预计从周四开始,气温最高会比正常高出27度。

Jeremy Mathis, who directs the Arctic Research Program for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration said the warmth had led to a later than usual “freeze-up” of ice in the Arctic Ocean. That in turn may lead to record-low ice coverage in the spring and summer, which could lead to more warming because there will be less ice to reflect the sun’s rays and more darker, exposed ocean to absorb them.

美国国家海洋和大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,简称NOAA)北极研究项目负责人杰里米·马西斯(Jeremy Mathis)称,温暖导致北冰洋的冰冻时间晚于平常。那会造成明年春季和夏季的冰层覆盖达到历史纪录新低,而这又会导致气候更暖,因为会有更少冰面反射阳光,更多裸露的深色海洋吸收阳光。

“We’re going to be watching the summer of 2017 very closely,” Mathis said in an interview.

“我们会非常密切地关注2017年的夏季,”马西斯在接受采访时说。

On Wednesday, researchers released a study linking the abnormally high Arctic temperatures to human-caused climate change. Using simulations of the climate, both current and before widespread carbon emissions, they found that the likelihood of extreme temperatures like those that occurred this fall had increased to about once every 50 years from about once every 1,000 years.

周三,研究人员发布了一项研究,认为北极的异常高温与人为气候变化有关。通过比较目前以及大范围碳排放之前的气候模型,他们发现,今年秋天这样的极端温度出现的可能性已经从约每1000年一次提高到约每50年一次。

“A warm episode like the one we are currently observing is still a rare event in today’s climate,” said one of the researchers, Friederike E.L. Otto, a senior scientist at the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford in Britain. “But it would have been an extremely unlikely event without anthropogenic climate change.”

“我们目前观测到的这种温暖情况在如今的气候中依然是罕见事件,”英国牛津大学(University of Oxford)环境变化研究所(Environmental Change Institute)高级科学家弗里德里克·E·L·奥托(Friederike E.L. Otto)说,“但是,如果没有人为气候变化,这本是极不可能发生的事。”

The report, which includes findings from NOAA-sponsored research projects involving more than 60 scientists, was released last week at a scientific meeting in San Francisco. At a news conference, Mathis said that in addition to the extreme warm periods, the overall year was the warmest on record.

相关报告包括有60余名科学家参与的多个NOAA赞助项目的诸多发现。上周,该报告在旧金山的一次科学会议上发布。马西斯在新闻发布会上说,除了出现几段极端温暖时期,今年还是有记录以来最热的一年。

“We’ve seen a year in 2016 in the Arctic like we’ve never seen before,” he said.

“北极2016年出现的情况是我们前所未见的,”他说。

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