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俄罗斯大使土耳其遇刺,为何牵连美国

更新时间:2016-12-20 18:22:02 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Turkey, Russia and an Assassination: The Swirling Crises, Explained
俄罗斯大使土耳其遇刺,为何牵连美国

Turkey and Russia, whose up-and-down relationship has helped shape the Syrian war and the many related crises, shared a new trauma on Monday after a Turkish gunman assassinated Russia’s ambassador at an art gallery in the Turkish capital, Ankara.

土耳其和俄罗斯之间跌宕起伏的关系影响着叙利亚战争及大量相关危机。周一,一名土耳其枪手在该国首都安卡拉一家画廊刺杀俄罗斯大使一事对两国来说都是一个新的打击。

Andrey G. Karlov, the Russian ambassador to Turkey, was giving a speech when an off-duty police officer fatally shot him at the lectern.

俄罗斯驻土耳其大使安德烈·G·卡尔洛夫(Andrey G. Karlov)在台上发表讲话时,被一名不当班的警察开枪打死。

No group has claimed responsibility for the attack. The gunman, who was killed at the scene, shouted “God is great” in Arabic and later said in Turkish: “Don’t forget Aleppo. Don’t forget Syria.” That may hint at his motive: The Russian Air Force was a key part of the Syrian government’s successful assault on rebel-held parts of Aleppo, which included widespread attacks on civilians.

尚没有任何团体声称对此次袭击负责。枪手被当场击毙前曾用阿拉伯语高喊“真主⾄⼤”,后来又用土耳其语说:“别忘了阿勒颇。别忘了叙利亚。”这或许暗示了他的动机:俄罗斯空军是叙利亚政府成功打击反政府武装控制的阿勒颇地区的关键因素之一。叙利亚政府的行动包括对平民的广泛袭击。

The killing caused global alarm and questions about where it would lead. On social media, many drew parallels to the political assassination of Archduke Franz Ferdinand of Austria, which helped set off World War I — a comparison that analysts, thankfully, reject.

此事在全球引发了担忧,以及对事态发展方向的疑虑。在社交媒体上,很多人将其与第一次世界大战的导火索,既是奥地利弗朗茨·斐迪南大公(Archduke Franz Ferdinand)遭遇政治刺杀一事相提并论。幸而分析人士驳斥了这种类比。

What follows is an explanation of what the episode means for Turkey, Russia, Syria and the United States.

下文解释了此事对土耳其、俄罗斯、叙利亚和美国意味着什么。

Could this lead to a conflict between Turkey and Russia?

此事是否会导致土耳其和俄罗斯之间爆发冲突?

That seems very unlikely. So far, both countries are working to manage the situation and sending signals of cooperation. They appear to be aligning their explanations of what happened, pointing their fingers at mutual enemies but not each other.

可能性似乎非常低。迄今为止,两国都在努力控制局面,并发出合作的信号。 两国似乎正在对发生的一切达成共识,指责共同的敌人而非彼此。

The reason is Syria. In the past few months, Turkey and Russia have taken pains to line up their once-conflicting strategies there.

原因在于叙利亚。过去几个月里,土耳其和俄罗斯费尽心思地让两国在叙利亚一度相互冲突的战略一致起来。

Aaron Stein, a Turkey expert at the Atlantic Council, put it bluntly: “Turkey needs Russia to advance its war interests. Russia needs Turkey to win, as it defines winning, in Syria. Everyone has an incentive to handle this like adults.”

大西洋理事会(Atlantic Council)的土耳其问题专家阿龙·斯坦(Aron Stein)直言不讳地说:“土耳其需要俄罗斯推进自己的战争利益。俄罗斯则需要土耳其在叙利亚取得胜利,不过是按照俄罗斯对胜利所下的定义。各方都有自己的动机,要像成年人一样处理此事。”

A crisis over a dead ambassador could jeopardize the two countries’ stakes in Syria — or, worse, revive the destabilizing tensions of last year — so they are working to smooth things over.

因一位大使遇刺身亡而爆发危机可能会危及两国在叙利亚的利益,或重新引发去年那些不利于稳定的紧张局面,后者更加糟糕。因此,两国都在努力平息事端。

Why has there been tension between Turkey and Russia?

土耳其和俄罗斯之间为何一度关系紧张?

Also over Syria, which goes to show the volatility of the situation. It also demonstrates that both countries are so focused on protecting their Syria agendas that even their nationalistic, grievance-prone leaders would rather play it cool.

两国之间的紧张关系同样是围绕着叙利亚问题,这表明了局势的不稳定。此事也显示出两国都非常注重保护自己关于叙利亚问题的议程,以至它们爱发牢骚的民族主义领导人宁愿不动声色。

The two countries were, and to some extent still are, on opposite sides of the Syrian war. Turkey opposes President Bashar al-Assad of Syria and has backed rebel groups. Russia supports Mr. Assad and entered the conflict on his behalf in the fall of 2015.

两国过去是叙利亚战争中对立的双方,目前在一定程度上仍是如此。土耳其反对叙利亚总统巴沙尔·阿萨德(Bashar al-Assad),支持反政府武装组织。俄罗斯支持阿萨德,并于2015年秋天代表阿萨德参战。

Shortly after Russia intervened, its planes began bombing Turkish-backed rebels and flew along — Turkey says across — the Turkish-Syrian border. In November 2015, Turkey shot down a Russian jet, precipitating a major crisis and fears of war. That also could have pulled in the United States, which is bound by treaty to defend Turkey, a NATO ally, and wanted to avoid escalation in Syria.

俄罗斯出面干预后不久,该国飞机就开始轰炸土耳其支持的反政府武装,并沿着土耳其与叙利亚的边境飞行。土耳其称俄罗斯的飞机越过了边境。2015年11月,土耳其击落一架俄罗斯飞机,引发了一场重大危机以及对战争的恐惧。那次事件本来可能会把美国拉下水,因为根据条约,美国有义务保卫北约(NATO)盟友土耳其。但美国希望避免叙利亚局势升级。

Under those circumstances, the assassination of an ambassador could provoke an even larger conflict. But over the past year, the countries’ relationship has changed significantly.

在这种情况下,大使遇刺可能会引发一场规模更大的冲突。但过去一年里,两国的关系发生了显著的变化。

How did they go from enemies to partners?

它们是如何从敌人变成合作伙伴的?

After years of pursuing Mr. Assad’s downfall, Turkey shifted this summer to a more modest strategy: preventing Syrian Kurdish groups from accumulating too much territory along the border. That change aligned the country with Russia.

土耳其多年来谋求让阿萨德下台,但在今年夏天转向了一项更温和的战略:阻止叙利亚的库尔德团体在边境附近积攒太多地盘。这一变化使该国和俄罗斯站在了一边。

Turkey fears that Kurdish control of the border would strengthen Kurdish separatism in Turkey, where the government is fighting Kurdish groups, some of which have carried out terrorist attacks.

土耳其担心库尔德人控制边境会增强自己境内的库尔德分离主义的实力。在土耳其,政府正在打击库尔德团体,部分库尔德团体制造了多起了恐怖袭击。

Russia’s entry into the war also changed Turkey’s calculus, making the campaign against Mr. Assad suddenly costlier and less likely to succeed.

俄罗斯的参战也打乱了土耳其的算盘,陡然增加了反阿萨德运动的代价,并降低了其取得成功的可能性。

Russia, for its part, initially struggled to gain ground against the Syrian rebels, some of whom received Turkish backing. Moscow appears to have concluded that it is better off with Turkey as a partner than an adversary.

俄罗斯起初难以在对抗叙利亚反政府武装的行动中取得进展。部分反政府武装组织得到了土耳其的支持。莫斯科似乎决定,把土耳其作为合作伙伴比把它作为对手更好。

The two countries appeared to settle on an unofficial deal: Turkey would drop its support for certain rebels who threatened Russian interests in Syria, and Russia would drop its support for Syrian Kurdish groups. Russia also allowed Turkish troops and allied militias to occupy Syrian border territory that had previously been controlled by Kurds and the Islamic State.

两国似乎达成了一项非正式协议:土耳其放弃支持某些危及俄罗斯在叙利亚利益的反政府武装组织,俄罗斯则放弃对叙利亚境内库尔德团体的支持。俄罗斯还允许土耳其部队及其民兵组织的盟友占领之前由库尔德人和伊斯兰国(Islamic State)控制的叙利亚边境地区。

Mr. Stein of the Atlantic Council called the arrangement “Aleppo for Al Bab”: Russia and Mr. Assad would take Aleppo, while Turkish-allied militias would take the strategically located town of Al Bab.

大西洋理事会的斯坦称相关安排是“用阿勒颇换阿巴布”:俄罗斯和阿萨德控制阿勒颇,和土耳其结盟的民兵组织控制地理位置具有战略意义的城市阿巴布。

Because the cities are nearly adjacent, the Turkish and Russian campaigns benefit each other. At the same time, with their forces mere miles apart, a major breakdown over Mr. Karlov’s assassination would simply be too dangerous to tolerate.

因为这两座城市几乎是连着的,土耳其和俄罗斯的行动对彼此都有利。与此同时,鉴于双方的部队仅相距数英里,因卡尔洛夫遇刺一事而导致关系严重破裂这种情况实在太危险,两国都无法容忍。

Will the assassination change anything?

刺杀事件是否会带来什么变化?

There is no indication so far that Turkey or Russia will alter their Syria policies. If anything, the attack may cement their partnership.

迄今为止尚没有迹象显示土耳其或俄罗斯会改变自己的叙利亚政策。如果有变化的话,此次袭击大概会巩固它们的合作关系。

Mr. Stein predicted that President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey would seek to distract attention from his government’s unpopular Syria policy by pinning the attack on the United States-based Turkish cleric Fethullah Gulen, whom Mr. Erdogan also blamed for a coup attempt in Turkey this summer.

斯坦预测,土耳其总统雷杰普·塔伊普·埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)会把袭击归咎于身在美国的土耳其神职人员费特胡拉·居伦(Fethullah Gulen),以此分散对自己政府不得人心的叙利亚政策的关注。埃尔多安还指责居伦应为土耳其今夏发生的未遂政变负责。

Mr. Gulen has denied the charges, and Washington has refused to extradite him, citing a lack of evidence. That has strained ties between the United States and Turkey, though this tension serves Mr. Erdogan by helping him to rally support at home, where America is unpopular.

居伦否认相关指控,华盛顿也以缺乏证据为由拒绝引渡他。这导致美国和土耳其之间关系紧张,不过这种紧张关系对埃尔多安有好处,帮他在国内获得了支持,因为美国在土耳其不受欢迎。

“The biggest loser from this will be Washington,” Mr. Stein said. “It’s completely counterintuitive, but it’s Washington.”

“这件事中最大的输家将是华盛顿,”斯坦说。“这完全违背直觉,但的确是华盛顿。”

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