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不能光靠中国人爆买,日本打算解禁博彩业

更新时间:2016-12-15 18:38:13 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Japan, Looking for Money, Is Poised to Legalize Casino Gambling
不能光靠中国人爆买,日本打算解禁博彩业

TOKYO — Japan is set to deal itself into the multibillion-dollar casino industry.

东京——日本打算进入数以十亿计美元的博彩行业。

Lawmakers in the country this week cleared the way for the removal of a longstanding prohibition against gambling on blackjack, roulette and other casino games. The legislation was passed by a crucial panel on Tuesday and was expected to be approved as early as Wednesday.

本周,该国立法者为取消对21点和轮盘赌等赌博游戏的长期禁令扫清了道路。周二,这项立法得到一个重要审议小组的通过,预计将在周三早些时候获得批准。

If enacted, as widely expected, it would complete an effort to make Japan attractive to gamblers. For years, Japanese businesses and the tax authorities have watched enviously as vast sums have poured into jurisdictions like Macau and Singapore, which have built sparkling casino resorts catering to international gamblers.

如果它能像广泛预期的那样得以实施,将实现让日本吸引赌博者的目标。多年来,日本的商业和税收当局羡慕地看着大量金钱流入澳门和新加坡等地区,那里修建了绚丽的赌场度假区,迎合国际赌博者的需求。

Japan is experiencing its own boom in Chinese tourism, and it sees casinos as an added way to cash in. Estimates of the potential size of the industry have ranged as high as $40 billion a year.

日本正从中国旅游业中实现自己的繁荣,它把赌场视为增加收入的新方法。对该行业潜在规模的估计有的甚至高达每年400亿美元。

International casino operators see a chance to profit, too. The last time Japanese legislators took up the issue, in 2014, Sheldon G. Adelson, the billionaire chief executive of Las Vegas Sands, said his company would be willing to invest as much as $10 billion to develop a casino resort in the country.

国际赌场运营者也看到了商机。日本立法者上次在2014年提出这项议案时,拉斯维加斯金沙集团(Las Vegas Sands)的首席执行官、亿万富翁谢尔登·G·埃德森(Sheldon G. Adelson)表示,他的公司愿意在该国投资高达100亿美元,开发一个赌场度假村。

“For the investment community, Japan is seen as the crown jewel of Asian gaming development outside of Macau,” said Grant Govertsen, a research analyst at Union Gaming, an investment bank focused on gambling.

“在投资界,日本被视为澳门之外亚洲博彩业发展皇冠上的明珠,” 联合博彩集团(Union Gaming)分析师格兰特· 戈弗森(Grant Govertsen)说。联合博彩集团是一家专做博彩业的投资银行。

The most recent major market in Asia to legalize casinos was Singapore, which approved the introduction of two casino hotels a decade ago. With casino revenue of about $3.5 billion last year, Singapore, a Southeast Asian city-state, ranks as the second-biggest market in Asia behind Macau.

在亚洲,最近一个让赌场合法化的主要市场是新加坡,它在10年前批准设立了两家赌场酒店。去年,新加坡的赌场收入约为35亿美元。在亚洲,这个东南亚城市国家是仅次于澳门的第二大博彩市场。

The Japanese market, with its large and affluent local population, could be even bigger.

日本市场可能更大,因为这里人口更多,更为富有。

“It would be shocking if Japan doesn’t become the No. 2 market in Asia on an overnight basis” once big resorts open, Mr. Govertsen said, adding that the exact size of the market is difficult to gauge until regulatory elements, like the number and location of licenses, are known.

戈弗森说,一旦这些大型赌场度假村开业, “如果日本没有在一夜之间成为亚洲第二大市场,我会非常意外。”他还说,在相关的监管规定出台之前——比如审批的数量和地点——很难估量该市场的具体规模。

Uncertainties remain, even if the law passes. The first casinos would take years to license and build, and competition is already stiffening. Newer industry players like South Korea and the Philippines, chasing the same Chinese cash, are building big resorts of their own. China itself is under a cloud, as its breakneck pace of economic growth slows.

即使法案得以通过,此事也仍存不确定性。第一批赌场将需要花费数年时间获得审批和修建,而竞争本身已经非常激烈。韩国和菲律宾等该行业新生力量也在追逐中国的金钱,修建他们自己的大型度假村。中国本身则处境艰难,因为它快速的经济发展开始放缓。

The scheduled vote comes as Japan looks for new sources of economic growth. Tourism is emerging as a newly powerful force in the country, where the economy has traditionally been geared more toward exporting cars and other manufactured goods than importing pleasure-seeking visitors. More than 20 million foreign tourists have made trips to Japan this year, triple the number from a decade ago, many from China’s swelling middle class.

在该立法即将得到表决之时,日本正在寻求新的经济增长点。旅游业正成为该国的一股强大的新力量,尽管其经济在过去主要依靠出口汽车等制造产品,而非吸引玩乐的游客。今年, 日本接待了2000多万外国游客——这个数字是10年前的三倍——其中很多是中国不断壮大的中产阶级。

The government of Prime Minister Shinzo Abe hopes the boom will ignite broader economic growth and make up for dwindling competitiveness in other industries — some of which, like consumer electronics, are now dominated by China.

安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)首相的政府希望该行业的繁荣会促进更广泛的经济增长,弥补该国在其他行业中逐渐减弱的竞争力——其中一些行业,比如消费电子产品,现在由中国主导。

An end of the prohibition on casinos would not mean that anyone could build the next Caesars Palace in Japan. At first, licenses would be granted to two or three so-called integrated resorts — which combine casinos with hotels, conference halls and shopping centers — in major cities. Rules governing the bidding and licensing process, as well as the regulation of the casinos themselves, would be detailed in a separate law next year. Actual gambling is unlikely to begin before 2023, several analysts said.

赌场禁令的取消并不会意味着,任何人都能在日本修建下一个凯撒宫(Caesars Palace)。一开始只会在大城市批准两三个所谓的综合度假村——它们将赌场与酒店、会议厅和购物中心结合起来。竞标和审批过程的规则以及赌场本身的管理规定将于明年在另一部法律中详细说明。几位分析人士称, 2023年之前,赌场运营不大可能真正开始。

Takashi Kiso, chief executive of the International Casino Institute, a consultancy that has been advising would-be entrants into the Japanese market, said ownership would probably take the form of joint ventures between international gambling groups and Japanese companies. MGM Resorts, Wynn Resorts and other large operators have also expressed interest, in addition to Las Vegas Sands.

国际博彩研究所(International Casino Institute)首席执行官木曾隆(Takashi Kiso)表示,赌场的所有权形式很可能会是国际博彩集团和日本公司组成的合资企业。该咨询公司已经在为打算进入日本市场的几家公司提供咨询。除了拉斯维加斯金沙集团,美高梅国际酒店集团(MGM Resorts)和永利度假村(Wynn Resorts)等大型博彩公司也表示有兴趣参与。

“Looking at the debate in Parliament, there’s a lot of resistance to the idea of 100 percent foreign-owned casinos, so that is probably off the table,” Mr. Kiso said.

“从国会的辩论可以看到,很多人反对设立全外资赌场,所以那很可能不在考虑范围之内,”木曾说。

Some forms of gambling are already legal in Japan. The country allows betting on horse, bicycle and boat racing, and it has a publicly run national lottery. Pachinko, a derivative of pinball played at thousands of noisy parlors around the country, has a gambling element that is technically illegal but is universally tolerated by politicians and law enforcement.

在日本,博彩业的某些形式已经是合法的。该国允许对赛马、自行车和赛艇比赛下注,还有一个公开发行的全国性彩票。日本各地成千上万家嘈杂游乐厅里玩的日式弹珠游戏含有赌博成分,从严格意义上讲,它是违法的,但是得到了政治人士和执法者的普遍容忍。

Japan has been debating whether to legalize casinos since at least 1999. A bill similar to the one passed on Wednesday made progress in Parliament two years ago but never made it to a vote. Some lawmakers balked at the potential social problems caused by casinos. Among those opposed was Komeito, a Buddhist political party that is a junior partner in the governing coalition.

日本至少从1999年开始讨论是否应该让赌场合法化。两年前,一个与周三通过的法案类似的法案在国会取得进展,但最终未能投票。有些议员担心赌场可能会造成一些社会问题。反对者包括佛教政党公明党(Komeito),该党是目前的执政联盟中的小党。

Multiple opinion surveys have shown that more Japanese voters oppose legalizing casinos than support the idea.

多项民意调查显示,日本选民中反对赌场合法化的人更多。

Since 2014, Mr. Abe’s party, the Liberal Democrats, has strengthened its hold on Parliament. It is now less reliant on Komeito and has found a new ally on the casino issue in Nippon Ishin no Kai, a small, right-leaning party with a support base in the western city of Osaka. Nippon Ishin no Kai has been lobbying for one of the first casinos to be built there.

从2014年起,安倍的自民党(Liberal Democratic Party)加强了对国会的控制。它现在对公明党的依赖程度降低了,并在赌场问题上找到了一个新盟友——右倾的小党“日本维新会”(Nippon Ishin no Kai),该党的大本营在西部城市大阪,曾经游说要将那里列为首批赌场的地点之一。

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