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特朗普领导下的美国必须维护战后世界秩序

更新时间:2016-12-14 10:26:06 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

What Is America Without Influence? Trump Will Find Out.
特朗普领导下的美国必须维护战后世界秩序

WASHINGTON — In February 1945, in the twilight of World War II, Franklin D. Roosevelt, Joseph Stalin and Winston Churchill convened in Yalta, a Russian resort town in the Crimea, to deliberate on the direction of the war and the peace to follow. They agreed to a postwar order managed by Roosevelt’s “Four Policemen” — the United States, Britain, Russia and China.

华盛顿——1945年2月,富兰克林·D·罗斯福、约瑟夫·斯大林和温斯顿·丘吉尔在第二次世界大战的后期,聚集在克里米亚的俄罗斯度假城市雅尔塔,思考战争的走势及之后的和平。他们达成共识,由罗斯福所谓的“四个警察”,既美国、英国、俄罗斯和中国来管理战后秩序。

Roosevelt was convinced he could cajole Stalin into keeping his Yalta commitments to collective security and an undivided Europe. Stalin had a very different vision: a world shaped by spheres of influence within which the will of the strongest prevails. In the Soviet sphere, darkness descended on Eastern Europe for 45 years.

罗斯福坚信,他可以劝诱斯大林遵守在雅尔塔做出的对集体安全和完整欧洲的承诺。斯大林却有一个非常不同的愿景:一个以势力范围划分的世界,在这个世界里,最强者的意志占上风。划入苏联势力范围的东欧被黑暗笼罩了45年。

It fell to President Harry Truman to contain Soviet expansionism. He built America’s first peacetime alliances, starting in Western Europe, then in Asia. The United States took the lead in shaping the norms, rules and institutions of what became the liberal international order, including the United Nations, the international financial institutions and the Marshall Plan.

遏制苏联扩张主义的重任落在了哈里·杜鲁门总统身上。他建立了美国的首个和平时代联盟,先是在西欧,后来在亚洲。美国在塑造后来成为自由主义国际秩序的规范、规则和制度上起了带头作用,包括联合国、国际金融机构和马歇尔计划。

The liberal order led by the United States favored an open world connected by the free flow of people, goods, ideas and capital, a world grounded in the principles of self-determination and sovereignty for nations and basic rights for their citizens. It did fall short of its ideals, often in Latin America and Southeast Asia. Yet despite the hair-trigger tensions of the Cold War, it produced decades of peace between the great powers while building shared prosperity.

美国领导下的自由主义秩序支持了一个开放的世界,这个世界由人、货物、思想和资本的自由流动连接起来,这个世界的基础是自决权、各国的主权,以及各国公民享有基本权利的原则。虽然这个秩序未能达到其理想(尤其是在拉丁美洲和东南亚),但是,尽管有一触即发的冷战紧张局势,这个秩序制造了大国之间长达几十年的和平,也建立了共同的繁荣。

The postwar order that America built now is facing acute challenges, including from old competitors. Russia’s president, Vladimir Putin, is no Stalin and Russia is no Soviet Union. But Mr. Putin does seek to recreate a Russian sphere of influence while picking apart the liberal international order that prevailed in the Cold War. China remains focused on stability at home, but the “new model of great power relations” it has proposed to the United States would have us stick to our side of the Pacific and let China play the pre-eminent role on its side.

美国建造的战后秩序正面临着包括来自昔日竞争对手的严峻挑战。虽然俄罗斯总统弗拉基米尔·普京不是斯大林,俄罗斯也不是苏联,但普京确实在寻求重建俄罗斯的势力范围,同时试图拆散冷战时期占主导地位的自由主义国际秩序。虽然中国仍着眼于国内的稳定,但它向美国提出的“大国关系新模式”会让我们只管太平洋我们这边的事务,让中国在自己那边发挥更突出的作用。

America’s allies in Europe and Asia are fixated on whether the Donald Trump administration will reject the re-emergence of spheres of influence or embrace them. They worry that, in his campaign, Mr. Trump seemed to approve of the “strong” leadership of autocrats and favor a transactional approach to Mr. Putin. He showed little concern about Russia’s cybermeddling in our election or aggression in Ukraine while suggesting that NATO is “obsolete.” He argued that the United States should get out of the business of “defending the world” and described Japan and South Korea as free riders that should pick up the burden of their own defense and nuclear deterrence.

美国在欧洲和亚洲的盟友关注的是,唐纳德·特朗普政府是拒绝、还是接受势力范围的再现。他们担心,正如特朗普在竞选期间所表示的,他似乎认可独裁者的“强有力”领导,喜欢用做交易的方式与普京打交道。特朗普对俄罗斯通过计算机网络干预我们的选举、或俄罗斯入侵乌克兰基本上没有表示关注,而他同时却暗示北约“过时”了。他辨称,美国不应该承担“保卫世界”的任务,他称日本和韩国是“搭便车”的国家,应该让它们承担自己的防御和核威慑责任。

He has promised to jettison the Trans-Pacific Partnership trade agreement, ceding to China economic leadership and strategic influence in Asia. For many Europeans and Asians, these proclamations translate into a world in which the United States retreats into its cocoon, and Russia and China dominate them in both political and economic spheres.

特朗普承诺要放弃跨太平洋伙伴关系贸易协定,把在亚洲的经济领导地位和战略影响力让给中国。对许多欧洲人和亚洲人来说,这些宣告的意思是,美国将退缩到自己的茧中世界,让俄罗斯和中国在政治和经济上主导他们。

The United States must not see China or Russia through a zero-sum prism. The Obama administration has deepened areas of cooperation with Beijing, from the Paris climate agreement, the handling of the Ebola epidemic, the Iran nuclear deal and North Korea to joint projects in developing countries. It negotiated the New Start nuclear arms reduction treaty with Moscow and championed Russia’s admission into the World Trade Organization.

美国不能通过零和的棱镜来看中国或俄罗斯。奥巴马政府已经深化了某些领域与北京的合作,从巴黎气候协定、应对埃博拉疫情、以及在伊朗核协议和朝鲜问题上,到发展中国家的联合项目上。奥巴马政府与莫斯科达成了名为“新起点”(New Start)的削减核武器条约,还支持了俄罗斯加入世界贸易组织。

Yet when Russia challenge the principles of the liberal international order, the United States must stand up to them. In Ukraine, Mr. Putin has sought to change the borders of Russia’s neighbor by force while denying its people the right to decide with which countries, unions or alliances they associate. It is why American support for Ukraine matters.

然而,当俄罗斯质疑自由主义国际秩序的原则时,美国必须站出来。普京试图在乌克兰用武力改变俄罗斯邻国的边界,同时还剥夺其人民选择与哪个国家、工会或联盟为伍的权利。这就是为什么美国支持乌克兰事关紧要。

A sphere-of-influence world would not be peaceful or stable; the United States will not be immune to its violent disruptions. Hegemons are rarely content with what they’ve got; the demand to expand their zones as well as cycles of rebellion and repression within them will lead to conflicts that draw us in. The United States would have to accept permanent commercial disadvantage as economic spheres of influence shut us out or incite a race to the bottom for workers, the environment, intellectual property and transparency.

以势力范围划分的世界不会是和平、稳定的;美国将不可避免地受到其暴力冲突的影响。霸权国家很少满足于它们所拥有的;扩大其势力范围的需求、以及其内部反抗和镇压的周期,将导致卷入我们的冲突。由于我们被排斥在经济势力范围之外、或者由于我们挑起一场在就业、环境、知识产权和透明度上的逐底竞争,美国将不得不接受永久的商业劣势地位。

America’s greatest contribution to peace and progress has been laying the foundation for an open, rules-based, connected world. Now we have to decide whether to continue to defend, amend and build upon that foundation or become complicit in dismantling it.

美国对和平与进步的最大贡献曾经是为开放的、基于规则的、相互联系的世界奠定基础。如今我们必须做出选择,是继续捍卫、修复和发展这个基础呢,还是与他国串通一气将其拆除。

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