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CIA说普京帮特朗普赢了大选,证据靠谱吗

更新时间:2016-12-13 10:18:14 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

C.I.A. Judgment on Russia Built on Swell of Evidence
CIA说普京帮特朗普赢了大选,证据靠谱吗

WASHINGTON — U.S. spy and law enforcement agencies were united in the belief, in the weeks before the presidential election, that the Russian government had deployed computer hackers to sow chaos during the campaign. But they had conflicting views about the specific goals of the subterfuge.

华盛顿——美国情报和执法机构在总统大选的几周前就形成了共同的信念,认为俄罗斯政府为在竞选期间制造混乱动用了计算机黑客。但是,他们对这种手段的具体目的是什么有矛盾的看法。

Last week, CIA officials presented lawmakers with a stunning new judgment that upended the debate: Russia, they said, had intervened with the primary aim of helping make Donald Trump president.

上周,中央情报局官员把一个惊人的新判断提交给了立法者,给这场辩论来了个底朝天。他们说,俄罗斯干预的主要目的是帮助唐纳德·J·特朗普当选总统。

The CIA’s conclusion does not appear to be the product of specific new intelligence obtained since the election, several U.S. officials, including some who had read the agency’s briefing, said on Sunday. Rather, it was an analysis of what many believe is overwhelming circumstantial evidence — evidence that others feel does not support firm judgments — that the Russians put a thumb on the scale for Trump, and got their desired outcome.

包括一些读了中情局通报的人在内的几名美国官员周日表示,中情局的结论似乎不是自从大选结束以来获得的具体新情报的产物,而是对许多人认为是确凿间接证据的一个分析,但也有些人觉得这种证据不支持上述定论,既俄国人在暗中为特朗普助了一臂之力,并得到了他们想要的结果。

It is unclear why the CIA did not produce this formal assessment before the election, although several officials said that parts of it had been made available to President Barack Obama in the presidential daily briefing in the weeks before the vote. But the conclusion that Moscow ran an operation to help install the next president is one of the most consequential analyses by U.S. spy agencies in years.

目前尚不清楚中情局为什么没有在大选之前作出这一正式判定,虽然有几位官员说,在大选日前的几周里,有些部分已在总统每日简报中提供给了巴拉克·奥巴马总统。但是,莫斯科为帮助确立下任总统而采取行动的结论,是许多多年来,这个美国间谍机构将产生最大后果的分析之一。

Trump’s response has been to dismiss the reports by citing another famous intelligence assessment — the botched 2002 conclusion that the Iraqi leader, Saddam Hussein, had weapons of mass destruction — and portraying U.S. spies as bumbling and biased.

特朗普的回应是该机构的判定不屑一提,他提到中情局的另一个有名的情报判定:其在2002年做出的、伊拉克领导人萨达姆·侯赛因拥有大规模毁灭性武器的错误结论,特朗普称美国间谍们很笨、且有偏见。

“I think it’s ridiculous. I think it’s just another excuse. I don’t believe it,” Trump said on Sunday in an interview on Fox News. Some top Republican congressmen have said the same, although with less bombastic language, arguing that there is no clear proof that the Russians tried to rig the election for Trump.

“我认为这很可笑。我认为这只是又一个借口。我一点也不信,”特朗普周日接受福克斯新闻采访时说。一些地位显赫的共和党议员也这样说,虽然他们使用的语言不这么夸张,他们认为没有清晰证据表明,俄国人试图为特朗普当选操纵大选。

Yet there is a loud chorus of bipartisan voices, including Sen. John McCain, R-Ariz., going public to accuse the Russians of election interference.

但也有一个得到两党人士支持的响亮声音,这个包括亚利桑那州参议员约翰·麦凯恩在内的声音,公开指责俄罗斯干预美国大选。

Rep. Adam B. Schiff of California, the top Democrat on the House Intelligence Committee, said the public evidence alone made it clear that Moscow had intervened to help the “most ostentatiously pro-Russian candidate in history.”

来自加利福尼亚州的众议员亚当·B·希夫(Adam B. Schiff)是众议院情报委员会中地位最高的民主党人,他说,仅是公开的证据就可清楚地表明,莫斯科已出面帮助了“有史以来最公开张扬亲俄罗斯的候选人”。

“If the Russians were going to interfere, why on earth would they do it to the detriment of the candidate that was pro-Russian?” Schiff asked.

“要是俄国人干预的话,他们怎么可能会用损害亲俄候选人的方法呢?”希夫反问道。

Both intelligence and law enforcement officials agree that there is a mountain of circumstantial evidence suggesting that the Russian hacking was primarily aimed at helping Trump and damaging his opponent, Hillary Clinton.

情报和执法官员都一致认为,有大批间接证据表明,俄罗斯黑客的做法主要是为了帮助特朗普,并损害他的对手希拉里·克林顿。

In July, the infiltration of the Democratic National Committee’s computer servers produced embarrassing emails and other internal party documents, the publication of which caused a backlash that led to the resignation of the committee’s chairwoman, Debbie Wasserman Schultz, and her top staff. Just weeks before the election, hacked emails from the account of John D. Podesta, Clinton’s campaign manager, were made public and produced numerous stories about the internal dynamics of the campaign. That hack also produced the text of speeches Clinton had given to Wall Street banks.

今年7月,对民主党全国委员会计算机服务器的渗透,暴露了令人尴尬的电子邮件和其他党内文件,那次泄露引发了巨大反响,导致民主党全国委员会主席黛比·沃瑟曼·舒尔茨(Debbie Wasserman Schultz)及其主要工作人员辞职。就在大选日的几周前,黑客从克林顿竞选团队主席约翰·D·波德斯塔(John D. Podesta)的账号盗取的电子邮件被公开,让许多有关竞选团队内部互动的报道得以发表。这次黑客袭击还泄露了克林顿在华尔街银行演讲的稿子。

U.S. intelligence officials believe that Russia also penetrated databases housing Republican National Committee data, but chose to release documents only on the Democrats. The committee has denied that it was hacked.

美国情报官员认为,俄罗斯也渗透了存放共和党全国委员会数据的数据库,但选择只公开民主党的文件。共和党全国委员会否认其被黑客入侵。

Beyond the specific targets of the hacks, U.S. officials cite broad evidence that Putin and the Russian government favored Trump over Clinton.

除了黑客的具体目标外,美国官员还指出有广泛的证据表明,普京和俄罗斯政府喜欢特朗普,不喜欢克林顿。

And yet, there is skepticism within the U.S. government, particularly at the FBI, that this evidence adds up to proof that the Russians had the specific objective of getting Trump elected.

然而,美国政府内部、特别是联邦调查局,对这些证据加起来能够证明俄罗斯有让特朗普当选的具体目的持怀疑态度。

A senior U.S. law enforcement official said the FBI believed that the Russians probably had a combination of goals, including damaging Clinton and undermining U.S. democratic institutions. Whether one of those goals was to install Trump remains unclear to the FBI, he said.

一位美国高级执法官员表示,联邦调查局认为,俄国人可能有几个目标,其中包括损害克林顿、挖美国民主制度的墙角。他说,这些目标是否包括让特朗普当选,在联邦调查局看来不清楚。

The official played down any disagreement between the FBI and the CIA, and suggested that the CIA’s conclusions were probably more nuanced than they were being framed in the media.

该官员把任何有关联邦调查局与中情局之间存在分歧的说法不当回事,他表示,中情局的结论可能比媒体所勾画的要复杂得多。

The agencies’ differences in judgment may also reflect different methods of investigating the Russian interference. The FBI, which has both a law enforcement and an intelligence role, is held to higher standards of proof in examining people involved in the hacking because it has an eye toward eventual criminal prosecutions. The CIA has a broader mandate to develop intelligence assessments.

这两家机构的判断差异也可能反映了调查俄罗斯干预所用的不同方法。联邦调查局既有执法责任,也有收集情报的责任,在调查涉及黑客行为的人时,联邦调查局采用更高的证据标准,因为它希望最终提起刑事诉讼。中央情报局则有更广泛的情报评估使命。

Law enforcement officials said that if FBI agents had the evidence to charge Russians with specific crimes, they would do so. The FBI and federal prosecutors have already gone aggressively after Russian hackers, including two men detained in Thailand and the Czech Republic whom the U.S. is trying to extradite.

执法官员表示,如果联邦调查局的特工掌握了对俄国人提出具体罪行指控的证据的话,他们会提出指控。联邦调查局和联邦检察官已经对俄罗斯黑客做出积极的执法努力,已有两名男子分别在泰国和捷克共和国被拘留,美国正在试图将他们引渡过来。

Russia has tried to block those efforts and has accused the U.S. of harassing its citizens.

俄罗斯也在试图阻止这些努力,并指责美国骚扰其公民。

The FBI began investigating Russia’s apparent attempts to meddle in the election over the summer. Agents examined numerous possible connections between Russians and members of Trump’s inner circle, including former Trump aides like Paul Manafort and Carter Page, as well as a mysterious and unexplained trail of computer activity between the Trump Organization and an email account at a large Russian bank, Alfa Bank.

联邦调查局从今年夏天开始调查似乎是俄罗斯干预大选的尝试。特工调查了俄国人与特朗普竞选班子内部成员之间的许多可能联系,包括像保罗·马纳福特(Paul Manafort)和卡特·佩奇(Carter Page)这样的特朗普前助手,以及特朗普集团(Trump Organization)与一家俄罗斯大银行——阿尔法银行的一个电子邮件帐户之间的神秘的、原因不详的计算机活动踪迹。

At the height of its investigation before the election, the FBI saw some indications that the Russians might be explicitly seeking to get Trump elected, officials said, and investigators collected online evidence and conducted interviews overseas and inside the U.S. to test that theory.

在大选前的调查进入最高潮时,联邦调查局看到了一些迹象表明,俄罗斯人可能在明确地寻求让特朗普当选,官员说,为了检验这个假设,调查人员收集了在线证据,并在海外和美国国内进行了问询。

The FBI was concerned enough about Russia’s influence and possible connections to the Trump campaign that it briefed congressional leaders — including Sen. Harry Reid, D-Nev. and Senate minority leader — on some of the evidence this summer and fall. Reid, in particular, pressed for the FBI to find out more and charged that the agency was sitting on important information that could implicate Russia.

联邦调查局对俄罗斯的影响及其与特朗普竞选活动的可能联系有足够的担心,因此在今年夏天和秋天,把部分证据通报了包括参议院少数党领袖、内华达州民主党参议员哈里·里德(Harry Reid)在内的国会领导人。尤其是里德,他曾向联邦调查局施压,让其收集更多的证据,并指责该机构对可能涉及俄罗斯的重要信息坐视不管。

But the agency’s suspicions about a direct effort by Russia to help Trump, or about possible connections between the two camps, appear to have waned as the investigation continued into September and October. The reasons are not entirely clear, and FBI officials declined to comment.

但随着调查持续到9月和10月,联邦调查局对俄罗斯帮助特朗普的直接努力、或俄罗斯与特朗普阵营之间的可能联系的怀疑似乎已有所减弱。这是什么原因造成的,目前并不完全清楚,联邦调查局官员也拒绝对此置评。

Now that a partisan squall has erupted over exactly what role Russia played in influencing the election, there is growing momentum among both Republicans and Democrats on Capitol Hill to have a congressional investigation.

如今,已经爆发了来自两党人士的风暴,人们想知道俄罗斯究竟在影响大选中起了什么作用,国会要进行调查的势头正在国会山上的共和党人和民主党人中间增长。

“I’m not trying to relitigate the election,” said Sen. Angus King, I-Maine, who is one of the lawmakers calling for such an investigation. “I’m just trying to prevent this from happening again.”

“我不是要对大选重新打官司,”来自缅因州的独立派参议员安格斯·金(Angus King)说,他是呼吁国会进行调查的立法者之一。“我只是要防止这种情况再次发生。”

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