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“深港通”来了,外国投资者会买账吗?

更新时间:2016-11-28 18:15:18 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Shenzhen Connect Offers Chinese Stocks. Will the World Buy?
“深港通”来了,外国投资者会买账吗?

HONG KONG — Global investors in two weeks will get direct access for the first time to the stock market in the Chinese city of Shenzhen, giving them a chance to bet on a tech-heavy clutch of private companies on an exchange sometimes called China’s Nasdaq.

香港——两周后,全球投资者将首次获准直接进入中国深圳的股市。这让他们有机会在一个有时被称作中国的纳斯达克的交易所,对一系列偏重科技的私营企业下注。

But many investors will be skeptical, and the tale of Baofeng Group explains why.

但很多投资者会持怀疑态度,暴风集团的故事则解释了其中的缘由。

A largely unknown tech firm that designs online video players, Baofeng conducted a modest debut on the Shenzhen exchange in March 2015. Over the next three months, its stock rose 4,200 percent.

暴风是一家设计在线视频播放器的科技公司。2015年3月,基本上籍籍无名的暴风在深圳交易所低调上市。在接下来的三个月里,其股票上涨了42倍。

The company went public at the height of China’s share market frenzy, as speculative investment in stocks became the national hobby. Vast fortunes were minted — Baofeng’s chief executive became a billionaire almost overnight.

该公司上市时,正值中国股市狂潮的巅峰时期,投机股市成了全民爱好。股市创造了大量财富,暴风的首席执行官几乎在一夜之间成了一名亿万富翁。

Then, just as quickly, investors’ hopes were dashed. Chinese stocks imploded in June of that year. The government’s attempt to stem the losses with trading suspensions, bans on selling and a campaign of state-directed buying only added to the concerns of private investors.

然后,投资者的希望落空的速度也同样快。同年6月,中国股市崩盘。政府试图通过暂停交易、禁止卖出和国家指导的买入来止损,却只是增加了私人投资者的担忧。

Many fled the market and still remain on the sidelines more than a year later. As a result, shares of Baofeng — while up nearly 10 times from the day they began trading — are still down more than half from their year-ago peak.

很多人逃离股市,在一年多以后的今天仍持观望态度。因此,暴风的股票——尽管同开始交易那一天相比涨了近十倍——仍比一年前的最高点跌了一半以上。

“Every stock went down largely,” Wang Jing, an investor relations representative at Baofeng, said of the crash in an interview this month. “This has also had a big impact on the company.”

“每一只股票都是跌了特别多特别多的,”本月接受采访时,暴风的投资者关系代表王静在谈到股市暴跌时说道。“这个对公司的影响也是蛮大的。”

The long-awaited connection between the Shenzhen market and the rest of the world will be open on Dec. 5. The timing was announced Friday by the stock market operator in the nearby city of Hong Kong that will serve as the way point. The move is partly intended to give Baofeng, the rest of the Shenzhen market and Chinese stocks over all a shot in the arm.

期待已久的深圳股市与世界的联通将于12月5日开启。这一时间由与深圳毗邻并将充当中转站的香港股市运营机构在周五宣布。此举部分是为了刺激暴风、深市的其他股票和整个中国股市。

Called the Shenzhen-Hong Kong Stock Connect, the venture opens a small door in China’s regulatory wall restricting money from moving across its borders. The plan, similar to one in Shanghai, allows investors in Hong Kong — a Chinese city long open to foreign investors — to buy and sell shares in Shenzhen, and vice versa.

名为深港股票市场交易互联互通机制(简称“深港通”——译注)的这一探索,是在中国禁止资金出入国境的监管高墙上开了一个小洞。该计划和上海的一个计划类似,允许长期对外国投资者开放的中国城市香港的投资者买卖深市股票,反之亦然。

The move is the latest test of China’s readiness to allow a more open financial system. Despite China’s status as the world’s second-biggest economy after the United States, the country’s financial markets are still comparatively immature.

此举是对中国是否愿意进一步开放金融体系的最新考验。尽管中国是仅次于美国的全球第二大经济体,但其金融市场相比较而言仍不成熟。

The leadership in Beijing worries that easing its grip too fast could lead to destabilizing flows of funds in and out of the country. Programs like the Stock Connect are aimed at opening the door wider — but also at retaining state control over the pace of liberalization.

北京的领导层担心,松手太快可能会导致出入该国的资金流不稳定。像深港通这样的计划旨在进一步敞开大门,但同时也能保持国家对自由化速度的控制。

Analysts welcomed the move but questioned whether it would lift markets or lure much new investment. The main Shanghai share index has entered a bull market, having rallied more than 20 percent from its lows in January, but trading volumes remain a shadow of what they were during the boom.

分析人士欢迎这一举动,但对它是否能提振市场或吸引大量新投资表示怀疑。主要的上海股指已进入牛市,同1月的低点相比上涨逾20%,但交易量仍是繁荣时期的一小部分。

Part of the reason is that China’s economic prospects have lost some of their luster, as growth has eased to its slowest pace in a quarter-century. At the same time, a weakening renminbi, the Chinese currency, has also reduced the attractiveness of investing in domestic shares.

部分原因是,随着增长放缓至四分之一个世纪以来的最低速度,中国的经济前景失去了一些光彩。与此同时,人民币的不断贬值也降低了投资国内股票的吸引力。

“From the macro point of view there’s obviously a big hill to climb as far as potential renminbi depreciation and the economic outlook,” said Charles Salvador, director of investment solutions at Z-Ben Advisors, a consulting firm based in Shanghai. “However, I still find this to be a turning point in the overall scheme of things.”

“从宏观角度来看,就潜在的人民币贬值和经济前景而言,显然有一座大山要爬,”总部设在上海的泽奔商务咨询有限公司(Z-Ben Advisors)投资解决方案总监查尔斯·萨尔瓦多(Charles Salvador)说道。“然而,我还是觉得这是整体规划中的一个转折点。”

Opening up to more foreign money is a modest step toward fixing markets many regard as unreliable. In June, MSCI, a firm that compiles a widely tracked index of global emerging market stocks, declined for the second year in a row to add A-shares, or mainland stocks, to its benchmark index. It cited issues with international investors’ access to domestic Chinese markets.

面向更多外国资金开放,是朝着修复被很多人视为不可靠的市场所迈出的一小步。6月,MSCI公司连续第二年拒绝将A股,即中国内地股市纳入其基准指数,给出的理由包括国际投资者在进入中国国内股市时面临诸多问题。该公司编制的全球新兴市场股票指数广受关注。

If Shanghai is China’s answer to the New York Stock Exchange, the traditional home to big, blue-chip industrial and financial companies, then Shenzhen is the country’s answer to the tech-heavy Nasdaq.

如果说上海是中国的纽约证券交易所——大型蓝筹工业和金融公司的传统上市场所——那么深圳便是中国偏重科技企业的纳斯达克。

Nicole Yuen, vice chairwoman and head of equities for greater China at Credit Suisse, said that around two-thirds of Shanghai’s stocks were state-owned companies, while in Shenzhen, the ratio was only about a quarter of stocks.

瑞信(Credit Suisse)大中华区副主席兼大中华区证券业务主管袁淑琴(Nicole Yuen)表示,沪市大约三分之二的上市公司是国企,而在深圳,这一比例仅为四分之一左右。

“The significance of Shenzhen Connect is it brings to the international market a whole new horizon of stocks that are much more representative of the future of China,” Ms. Yuen said this month, “as opposed to the Shanghai Connect, which is very much more a representation of the previous China, so to speak.”

“深港通的意义在于它为国际市场带来了一系列更能代表中国未来的股票,”袁淑琴本月说。“和沪港通相反,可以说后者更多地是代表以前的中国。”

Before the Shenzhen Connect, the only access foreign investors had to shares listed in the southern city was through the 14-year-old qualified foreign institutional investor program, known as Qfii, which is open only to large foreign funds or other big investors and entails a time-consuming approval process to invest or repatriate profits.

在深港通之前,外国投资者投资深市股票的唯一途径,就是通过已有14年历史的合格境外机构投资者项目,简称Qfii。该项目仅面向大型外国基金或其他大投资者,并要求在走完一个耗时的审批程序后才能投资或拿走利润。

The new link will open the door to smaller and more active investors, like hedge funds, and give them quicker access to over 800 new stocks — many of them entrepreneurial tech firms.

新的联通机制将面向更小、更积极的投资者,如对冲基金打开大门,让他们能够更快地投资800多支新股票,其中很多都是创业科技公司。

Appetite for domestic shares “ has improved slightly from a very low level,” said Jian Shi Cortesi, an investment manager for Chinese equities based in Zurich at GAM, an asset management firm.

资产管理公司GAM驻苏黎世的中国股票投资经理科特茜(Jian Shi Cortesi)称,对国内股票的兴趣“和低点相比略有改善”。

Still, Ms. Cortesi added, “Shenzhen Connect is not likely to bring large inflows from foreign investors to push up A-share prices.”

但她接着说,“深港通不太可能带来外国投资者的大量资金流入,抬高A股股价。”

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