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TPP搁浅成定局,中国成最大赢家

更新时间:2016-11-21 10:34:36 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

China’s Influence Grows in Ashes of Trans-Pacific Trade Pact
TPP搁浅成定局,中国成最大赢家

LIMA, Peru — A toxic political war over money, jobs and globalization killed the vast and complex trade deal that was supposed to be a signature legacy of President Obama. But the deal, between the United States and 11 Asian and Pacific nations, was never just about trade.

秘鲁利马——一场关于金钱、就业和全球化的毒性政治战争扼杀了一项庞大且复杂的贸易协议,而这个协议原本是奥巴马总统的标志性政治遗产。但是,美国与11个亚太国家之间的这项协议从来就不只关乎贸易。

The agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership, was conceived as a vital move in the increasingly tense chess match between China and the United States for economic and military influence in the fastest-growing and most strategically uncertain part of the world. The deal, which excluded China, was intended to give those 11 nations more leverage in that strained match by providing them with a viable economic alternative. And its defeat is an unalloyed triumph for China.

随着中美两国在世界上经济增长最快、最具战略不确定性的地区争夺经济、军事影响力的较量日趋紧张,这项名为跨太平洋伙伴关系(简称TPP)的协议是作为其中的重要一步而构想的。该协议把中国排除在外,目的是在这场紧张的较量中,通过为与美国达成协议的11个国家提供一个可行的经济选择,为这些国家提供更多的杠杆。协议的失败对中国来说,是一次纯粹的胜利。

Mr. Obama, in comments just before meeting his counterparts, who laboriously negotiated the pact, made no reference to its near certain burial.

这些国家的领导人为达成协议进行了艰苦的谈判,在即将与他们见面前,奥巴马的评论只字未提协议几乎必定的死亡。

“This is always a useful occasion for us to get together and examine how we can make sure that we’re creating more jobs, more opportunity and greater prosperity for all of our countries,” Mr. Obama said. “So it’s wonderful to see all of you again, and I look forward to a constructive discussion.”

“对我们来说,聚在一起总能提供一个有益的场合,让我们可以共同探讨如何确保为我们所有的国家创造更多的就业、更多的机会,以及更大的繁荣,”奥巴马说。“所以很高兴再次见到你们,我期待着与你们进行建设性的讨论。”

In remarks during a bilateral meeting on Saturday between Mr. Obama and President Xi Jinping of China, Mr. Xi said the relationship between their countries was at “a hinge moment” and added that China would work with others to ensure a successful summit meeting.

奥巴马和中国国家主席习近平周六举行了双边会谈,习近平在会谈时说,中美两国关系处于“关键时刻”,并表示中国将与其他国家合作,确保首脑会议的成功。

“I hope the two sides will work together to focus on cooperation, manage our differences and make sure there is a smooth transition in the relationship, and that it will continue to grow going forward,” he said.

“我希望双方将携手工作,强调合作,管控分歧,实现两国关系平稳过渡,确保关系继续向前发展,”习近平说。

Mr. Obama will find that his counterparts are already getting pulled deeper into China’s economic riptide because of the pact’s demise.

奥巴马将发现,由于TPP的失败,那11个国家的领导人正在被中国的经济湍流更深地卷进去。

Australia said on Wednesday that it wanted to push ahead with a Chinese-led trade pact that would cover Asian nations from Japan to India but exclude the United States. Peru has opened talks with Beijing to join the agreement as well. Even American business leaders are positioning themselves for the potential opportunities in Asia.

澳大利亚在上周三表示,希望推进一项以中国为主导的、包括从日本到印度等亚洲国家在内,但不包括美国的贸易协议。秘鲁已与北京就加入该协议的问题展开谈判。就连美国的商业领袖们也正在为亚洲潜在的机会做准备。

“Two-thirds of what we do there ends up in another country,” said John G. Rice, General Electric’s vice chairman for international operations. “So if they’re going to lower tariffs and trade barriers within that region, we’ll find ways to do more there.”

“我们在亚洲做的事情的三分之二最终进到另一个国家,”通用电气的国际业务副董事长约翰·G·赖斯(John G. Rice)说。“所以,如果他们要降低那个地区的关税和贸易壁垒的话,我们会找到在那里做更多事情的办法。”

For the United States, such trade ties have geopolitical undertones.

对于美国来说,这种贸易关系具有地缘政治色彩。

Much of Asia has for decades quietly accepted American security guarantees while also running large trade surpluses with the United States, turning them into prosperous manufacturing powerhouses. But China is now the largest trading partner for most of the region.

几十年来,亚洲的大多数国家在默默地接受了美国的安全保障的同时,暗地里与美国产生了巨大的贸易顺差,使它们成为繁荣的制造业大国。但中国现在是亚洲大部分地区的最大贸易伙伴。

“The long-term question is whether America pulls back from Asia and makes it easier for China to force countries in the region to make a choice between China and the United States,” said Richard Bush, a senior fellow at the Brookings Institution.

“长远的问题是,美国是否从亚洲撤出,让中国更容易地迫使该地区的国家在中美之间作出选择,”布鲁金斯学会的资深研究员理查德·布什(Richard Bush)说。

When it comes to Asia, the shift in American policy is likely to be among the most pronounced in the new administration.

就亚洲而言,美国政策的转变可能在下届政府的政策转变中最显著。

Born in Hawaii, in the middle of the Pacific Ocean, and raised partly in Indonesia, Mr. Obama has, since his earliest days as president, pushed Asia as his nation’s best opportunity for growth. Other than efforts to end two wars begun by his predecessor, Mr. Obama’s principal foreign policy goal was to shift the nation’s attention and military resources away from an aging Europe and an unproductive rivalry with Russia and toward the fast-growing Asia-Pacific region.

奥巴马出生在太平洋中部的夏威夷,并在印度尼西亚度过了一段青少年时期,他从担任总统的最早日子里,就把亚洲作为美国经济增长的最好机会。除了努力结束自己的前任开始的两场战争之外,奥巴马的主要外交政策目标是,将美国的注意力和军事资源,从衰老的欧洲以及与俄罗斯的无益竞争上,转向快速增长的亚太地区。

It is a goal he partly shared with President George W. Bush, whose administration began the negotiations for the Trans-Pacific Partnership.

在这个目标上,他与乔治·W·布什总统部分地一致,跨太平洋伙伴关系的谈判是布什政府开始了。

Mr. Obama has spent much of the last 10 days putting a brave face on the crushing blow that Mr. Trump’s surprising electoral victory represented to his legacy.

在过去10天的大部分时间里,奥巴马对特朗普令人惊讶的大选胜利对自己政治遗产的巨大打击做出一幅若无其事的样子。

Hours after the results became clear, he told the country and his own weeping staff that “we’re all actually on one team.” On Monday, he suggested Republicans would find replacing his health care law difficult. And in visits on Tuesday and Thursday to Greece and Germany, he told panicked Europeans that Mr. Trump would preserve the NATO alliance.

在大选结果变得清楚的几小时后,奥巴马对美国以及自己的流着泪的工作人员说,“我们其实都在同一个团队。”他在上周一暗示,共和党人会发现,取代他的医疗保健法不那么容易。在周二访问希腊和周四访问德国时,他告诉人心惶惶的欧洲人,特朗普将保留北约联盟。

But the meetings this weekend, at the Asia-Pacific trade summit, will very likely have a more funereal feel.

但是,这个周末在亚太贸易峰会上的见面很可能会给人带来更多的伤感。

More than on any other issue, Mr. Obama and Mr. Trump have diametrically opposing views on Asian trade. And Mr. Trump has won. Even White House aides have admitted to their boss’s bitter defeat.

奥巴马和特朗普在亚洲贸易上,比在任何其他问题上,有着截然相反的观点。结果是特朗普赢了。就连白宫助手们也已承认了他们上司的惨败。

“We’re cleareyed about the current situation, but we believe what we believe about the value of trade and the importance of the Asia-Pacific region to the United States,” said Benjamin J. Rhodes, a deputy national security adviser.

国家安全副顾问本杰明·J·罗兹(Benjamin J. Rhodes)说,“虽然我们对目前形势有清楚的了解,但我们仍相信我们在贸易的价值、以及亚太地区对美国的重要性上所持的信念。”

The allegiances are starting to shift after Mr. Trump’s election.

特朗普当选后,忠诚已开始转移。

Just three days before Mr. Obama’s arrival here, Peru’s foreign minister, Eduardo Ferreyros, said the country still hoped the Pacific pact would someday become a reality. But given the changing dynamics, his government also opened talks this autumn with Beijing to join the rival, Chinese-led trade pact, the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership.

在奥巴马到达这里的三天前,秘鲁外长爱德华多·费雷罗斯(Eduardo Ferreyros)说,该国仍希望跨太平洋伙伴关系有朝一日会成为现实。但鉴于事态的变化,他的政府也在今年秋天开始,与北京展开就加入“区域全面经济伙伴关系”的谈判,这个以中国为首的贸易协定是跨太平洋伙伴关系的竞争对手。

“Since Mr. Trump is not so interested in requiring economic integration and trade liberalization, why not have other countries follow this free-trade proposal?” asked Song Guoyou, a longtime trade specialist who is the deputy director of the Center for American Studies at Fudan University in Shanghai.

“既然特朗普先生对经济一体化的要求和贸易自由化不感兴趣,为什么不让其他国家跟进这一自由贸易的建议呢?”长期研究贸易的专家宋国友说,他是上海复旦大学美国研究中心的副主任。

Since the election, Australia’s government has also called for rapid progress in concluding that rival trade pact. Even Japan is paying more attention to China’s vision for global trade.

自美国大选以来,澳大利亚政府也已呼吁,在缔结“区域全面经济伙伴关系”的贸易协定上取得迅速进展。就连日本也在更多地关注中国对全球贸易的愿景。

Australia and Japan have been bargaining for years with China on the deal. But they wanted it as a complement to the Trans-Pacific Partnership, to balance their economic relationship with the United States instead of replacing it with ties to China.

澳大利亚和日本多年来一直在与中国进行谈判。但他们曾希望把双边关系作为对跨太平洋伙伴关系的补充,作为他们与美国经济关系的平衡,而不是用它们与中国的关系取代与美国的关系。

“If T.P.P. doesn’t move forward, there’s no doubt that the focus will shift” to the China-led deal, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan told his country’s Parliament on Tuesday. Mr. Abe met with Mr. Trump on Thursday.

日本首相安倍晋三周二在日本的议会上表示,“如果TPP停滞不前的话,毫无疑问,重点将转向”由中国牵头的贸易协定。安倍晋三周四会见了特朗普。

Since 2011, trade negotiators from China, Japan, Australia, India and 12 other Asian nations have been meeting several times a year to stitch together the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. And with Mr. Trump’s victory, those efforts are almost certain to accelerate. The next round of talks is to be held in Indonesia early next month.

自2011年起,来自中国、日本、澳大利亚、印度和其他12个亚洲国家的贸易谈判代表每年都举行几次会议,以促成区域全面经济伙伴关系。特朗普大选胜利后,这些努力几乎肯定会加速。下一轮谈判将于下月初在印度尼西亚举行。

Trade officials across Asia met to negotiate details in Cebu, the Philippines, the week before Mr. Trump won the election. Almost no one noticed outside of Cebu. The next meeting, scheduled for early December, could attract far more attention, including some at this weekend’s Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit meeting in Lima.

在特朗普当选的一周前,亚洲各国的贸易官员曾在菲律宾宿雾开会谈判有关细节。当时,宿雾之外几乎没有人注意到那次会议。定于12月初举行的下次会议可以会引起更多的关注,包括一些本周末在利马参加亚太经济合作首脑会议者的关注。

“Everyone is waiting to see what will happen at the APEC summit — there will be a lot of discussions on the sidelines on how to deal with Trump,” said Kishore Mahbubani, the dean of the Lee Kuan Yew School of Public Policy at the National University of Singapore, said of this weekend’s meeting. “The biggest winner if you walk away from T.P.P. is China. There’s no doubt about that.”

新加坡国立大学李光耀公共政策学院院长马凯硕(Kishore Mahbubani)在提到本周末的会议时说,“每个人都在等着看在亚太经合组织峰会上会发生什么,在会议的间隙将有很多关于如何对待特朗普的讨论。如果TPP谈判失败的话,最大的赢家是中国。这是毫无疑问的。”

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