The Trump Effect on Tokyo
TOKYO — Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan is making an urgent trip to New York this week to meet with the American president-elect, Donald J. Trump. The government in Tokyo is on high alert.
东京——日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)将于本周紧急赶往纽约，会见美国候任总统唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)。东京的日本政府目前处于高度戒备状态。
A Trump presidency could be the greatest challenge to U.S.-Japan relations since the end of World War II — at least if Mr. Trump intends to translate his campaign pledges into actual foreign policy. On the stump, he challenged the main tenets of the two countries’ security relations, as well as America’s approach to nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region and to multilateral trade agreements. Mr. Trump has cast unprecedented uncertainty on a partnership that has served Japan and America — and the rest of the world — in good stead.
The U.S.-Japan alliance has been a cornerstone of stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region for decades. Under the Abe administration, the Japanese government is both more stable and more nimble today than it has been in years. Even before the U.S. election, Mr. Abe had signaled his government’s resolve to see Japan take on a greater leadership role.
Yet throughout the campaign, Mr. Trump complained that U.S.-Japan relations were one-sided, with America shouldering too many of the burdens. He accused Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, of being a free-rider. Japan would have to step up, he said, or it would be left to its own devices.
These charges were off the mark. Every year the Japanese government covers around 75 percent of the costs of maintaining U.S. military bases in Japan, far more than the share that South Korea and Germany bear for America’s military presence in those countries. The Abe administration has also taken significant, and unpopular, steps to expand Japan’s defense capability. In 2015, it passed security bills that, among other things, authorized the Japanese military to engage in combat missions overseas. Japan also agreed to new defense-cooperation guidelines with the U.S. government that expanded Japan’s role in, for example, enforcing maritime law in the East China Sea.
Rather than lambasting Japan for not doing enough, Mr. Trump should recognize its recent efforts. That would stand a better chance of encouraging Tokyo to contribute even more in areas where it can, such as by cooperating with the United States on developing cutting-edge defense technology or increasing Japan’s civilian coast-guard capacity-building in Southeast Asia.
Mr. Trump must also reaffirm America’s commitment to maintaining the so-called nuclear umbrella over Japan and South Korea, its guarantee to defend its non-nuclear allies if they come under attack.
Even while acknowledging that the volatile leadership of North Korea is a major security threat, Mr. Trump has suggested that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear deterrent. This caused alarm in Japan, prompting the government to declare again that the country will never possess nuclear weapons.
According to a recent Gallup poll, however, 58 percent of the population of South Korea is in favor of arming the country with nuclear weapons. This is an ominous indicator. In order to stem any risk of nuclear proliferation in East Asia, the U.S. government must reaffirm that it will stick by its longstanding nuclear policy in the region.
Another major plank of Mr. Trump’s campaign platform was his opposition to globalization and multilateral trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (T.P.P.). He said he favored bilateral arrangements instead. Promising to protect manufacturing jobs for Americans, he also said he would seek to impose a 45 percent tariff on Chinese exports to the United States.
特朗普竞选纲领的另一项重要内容，是反对全球化以及“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”（Trans Pacific Partnership，简称TPP）等多边贸易协议。他说他支持签署双边协议。他还说会寻求对进口自中国的商品征收45%的关税，并承诺为美国人保住制造业工作岗位。
The day after Mr. Trump’s victory, Japan’s House of Representatives ratified the T.P.P. Mr. Abe has said that the deal would not only bring economic benefits but also have “awesome” strategic value: It would indeed confirm the enduring relevance of the rules-based liberal international order that has helped maintain peace since World War II.
Even if the T.P.P. isn’t it, Mr. Trump will realize soon enough that, for both economic and strategic reasons, America must participate in multilateral trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region. Otherwise, it will be left out, in effect ceding the area to China and its economic expansionism — and undermining Mr. Trump’s stated resolve to adopt a tougher stance toward China on trade issues.
Mr. Trump’s vision lacks strategic coherence — yet this is also an opportunity for Japan to help shape America’s policies in East Asia.
The Japanese and U.S. governments struggled to forge a common approach to China under the Obama administration.
Bridging this perception gap should be at the top of Mr. Abe’s list of issues to address with Mr. Trump. He could, for example, propose the “isosceles triangle” model touted by Lee Kuan Yew, the late prime minister of Singapore, as a framework for their discussions. Mr. Lee promoted a set of relations among America, Japan and China that connected the three countries, but with America and Japan at the two closer corners.
消除这一观念分歧，应该排在安倍晋三要和特朗普一起解决的一系列问题的榜首。比如，他可以提议将已故新加坡总理李光耀(Lee Kuan Yew)宣扬的“等腰三角形”模式作为讨论的框架。李光耀曾宣扬在美国、日本和中国之间形成一系列将三个国家联系起来的关系，但美国和日本位于距离更近的两个角上。
Mr. Abe and Mr. Trump would also do well to explore new areas of cooperation, such as with Moscow. Although Russia may seem like a disruptive power from the vantage point of the West, it could be an agent of stability in the Asia-Pacific region.
Mr. Trump has said he is confident that he can “get along” with strongmen like Vladimir V. Putin. George W. Bush had claimed the same, and failed. Mr. Abe, however, has met Mr. Putin more than a dozen times and has built a reliable constructive relationship with him. Working through Tokyo, Mr. Trump could seek to improve U.S.-Russia ties and encourage Moscow’s cooperation on issues of mutual interest, such as security on the Korean Peninsula, at the same time forestalling further rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing.
特朗普自称，有信心与像弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)这样的铁腕人物“融洽相处”。乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)也说过同样的话，后来却以失败告终。但安倍晋三和普京举行过十余次会面，并同他建立起了一种值得信赖的、有建设性的关系。通过东京的帮助，特朗普可以争取改善美俄关系，并鼓励莫斯科在朝鲜半岛安全局势等共同关心的问题上进行合作，同时抢先防止莫斯科和北京进一步拉近关系。
The U.S.-Japan relationship is one of the most successful great-power alliances in recent history, and President-elect Trump must not allow the incoherences of his campaign-trail bluster to undermine it. If anything, he should take up Mr. Abe on his own commitment to bolster Japan’s leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in order to further strengthen ties between the two countries.