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面对特朗普,日本的戒备与机遇

更新时间:2016-11-17 10:30:38 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

The Trump Effect on Tokyo
面对特朗普,日本的戒备与机遇

TOKYO — Prime Minister Shinzo Abe of Japan is making an urgent trip to New York this week to meet with the American president-elect, Donald J. Trump. The government in Tokyo is on high alert.

东京——日本首相安倍晋三(Shinzo Abe)将于本周紧急赶往纽约,会见美国候任总统唐纳德·J·特朗普(Donald J. Trump)。东京的日本政府目前处于高度戒备状态。

A Trump presidency could be the greatest challenge to U.S.-Japan relations since the end of World War II — at least if Mr. Trump intends to translate his campaign pledges into actual foreign policy. On the stump, he challenged the main tenets of the two countries’ security relations, as well as America’s approach to nuclear deterrence in the Asia-Pacific region and to multilateral trade agreements. Mr. Trump has cast unprecedented uncertainty on a partnership that has served Japan and America — and the rest of the world — in good stead.

特朗普出任总统有可能成为二战结束以来美日关系面临的最大挑战——至少在特朗普有意将其竞选承诺转化为实际外交政策的情况下会是如此。发表竞选演说时,他质疑了两国安全关系的主要原则,还质疑了美国在亚太地区的一些做法,例如在核威慑及美国签署多边贸易协议等方面。特朗普给一种有益于日本、美国乃至世界其他地区的伙伴关系带来了前所未有的不确定性。

The U.S.-Japan alliance has been a cornerstone of stability and prosperity in the Asia-Pacific region for decades. Under the Abe administration, the Japanese government is both more stable and more nimble today than it has been in years. Even before the U.S. election, Mr. Abe had signaled his government’s resolve to see Japan take on a greater leadership role.

数十年来,美日同盟一直都是亚太地区稳定和繁荣的基石。在安倍治下,比起以往的很多年,如今的日本政府更为稳定,也更为灵活。早在美国大选之前,安倍就已暗示,他的政府有决心让日本发挥更大的领导作用。

Yet throughout the campaign, Mr. Trump complained that U.S.-Japan relations were one-sided, with America shouldering too many of the burdens. He accused Japan, the world’s third-largest economy, of being a free-rider. Japan would have to step up, he said, or it would be left to its own devices.

但在整个竞选过程中,特朗普一直抱怨美日关系是一边倒的,美国扛起了太多重担。他指责身为世界第三大经济体的日本搭便车。他说日本必须有所作为,否则美国将任其自生自灭。

These charges were off the mark. Every year the Japanese government covers around 75 percent of the costs of maintaining U.S. military bases in Japan, far more than the share that South Korea and Germany bear for America’s military presence in those countries. The Abe administration has also taken significant, and unpopular, steps to expand Japan’s defense capability. In 2015, it passed security bills that, among other things, authorized the Japanese military to engage in combat missions overseas. Japan also agreed to new defense-cooperation guidelines with the U.S. government that expanded Japan’s role in, for example, enforcing maritime law in the East China Sea.

这些指控并不靠谱。维持日本境内美国军事基地正常运转所需的费用,每年约有75%是由日本负担的,远远高于韩国和德国为本国境内的美国军事存在所承担的份额。安倍政府还曾采取一些不受欢迎的重大举措来拓展日本的防御能力。它在2015年采取的举措之一,是通过了安保法案,赋予了日本军队到海外参与作战任务的权力。日本还与美国政府达成了新的防御合作指南,该指南让日本在东海地区海事执法等方面的作用得到了拓展。

Rather than lambasting Japan for not doing enough, Mr. Trump should recognize its recent efforts. That would stand a better chance of encouraging Tokyo to contribute even more in areas where it can, such as by cooperating with the United States on developing cutting-edge defense technology or increasing Japan’s civilian coast-guard capacity-building in Southeast Asia.

与其痛批日本做得不够,特朗普莫不如认可日本近期的努力。这样才可能更好地鼓励东京方面在力所能及的领域做出更大贡献,比如与美国合作研发尖端防御技术,或者加强日本海上保安厅在东南亚地区的能力建设。

Mr. Trump must also reaffirm America’s commitment to maintaining the so-called nuclear umbrella over Japan and South Korea, its guarantee to defend its non-nuclear allies if they come under attack.

特朗普还必须重申美国对日本和韩国做出的将其置于人们通常说的核保护伞之下的承诺,再度保证会在美国的无核盟友受到攻击之际保护它们的安全。

Even while acknowledging that the volatile leadership of North Korea is a major security threat, Mr. Trump has suggested that Japan and South Korea should develop their own nuclear deterrent. This caused alarm in Japan, prompting the government to declare again that the country will never possess nuclear weapons.

尽管特朗普承认朝鲜不稳定的领导层是一个重大的威胁,但他还是暗示日本和韩国应该自行发展核震慑力量。这在日本引起了警觉,促使其政府再度宣布,日本永远也不会拥有核武器。

According to a recent Gallup poll, however, 58 percent of the population of South Korea is in favor of arming the country with nuclear weapons. This is an ominous indicator. In order to stem any risk of nuclear proliferation in East Asia, the U.S. government must reaffirm that it will stick by its longstanding nuclear policy in the region.

不过盖洛普(Gallup)近期开展的一项民调显示,58%的韩国人支持该国配备核武器。这是一个令人不安的信号。为了遏制东亚地区的核扩散风险,美国政府必须重申,将毫不动摇地坚持它在该地区长期以来的核政策。

Another major plank of Mr. Trump’s campaign platform was his opposition to globalization and multilateral trade deals like the Trans-Pacific Partnership (T.P.P.). He said he favored bilateral arrangements instead. Promising to protect manufacturing jobs for Americans, he also said he would seek to impose a 45 percent tariff on Chinese exports to the United States.

特朗普竞选纲领的另一项重要内容,是反对全球化以及“跨太平洋伙伴关系协定”(Trans Pacific Partnership,简称TPP)等多边贸易协议。他说他支持签署双边协议。他还说会寻求对进口自中国的商品征收45%的关税,并承诺为美国人保住制造业工作岗位。

The day after Mr. Trump’s victory, Japan’s House of Representatives ratified the T.P.P. Mr. Abe has said that the deal would not only bring economic benefits but also have “awesome” strategic value: It would indeed confirm the enduring relevance of the rules-based liberal international order that has helped maintain peace since World War II.

特朗普获胜后的第二天,日本众议院批准了TPP。安倍晋三称该协议不仅会带来经济效益,还具有“重大”的战略价值:确切地说它会证实讲求规则的自由主义国际秩序经久不衰的重要性。这种秩序帮助维护了自二战以来的和平。

Even if the T.P.P. isn’t it, Mr. Trump will realize soon enough that, for both economic and strategic reasons, America must participate in multilateral trade agreements in the Asia-Pacific region. Otherwise, it will be left out, in effect ceding the area to China and its economic expansionism — and undermining Mr. Trump’s stated resolve to adopt a tougher stance toward China on trade issues.

即便不是TPP,特朗普很快也会意识到,出于经济和战略原因,美国必须参加亚太地区的多边贸易协议。否则,它就会被排除在外。这实质上是将该地区拱手让给中国及其经济扩张主义,并削弱特朗普所谓的在贸易问题上对中国采取更强硬的立场的决心。

Mr. Trump’s vision lacks strategic coherence — yet this is also an opportunity for Japan to help shape America’s policies in East Asia.

特朗普的愿景缺乏战略上的一致性,但对日本来说,这也是一个机会,可参与塑造美国的东亚政策。

The Japanese and U.S. governments struggled to forge a common approach to China under the Obama administration.

奥巴马任内,日美两国政府很难在对华问题上达成步调一致。

Bridging this perception gap should be at the top of Mr. Abe’s list of issues to address with Mr. Trump. He could, for example, propose the “isosceles triangle” model touted by Lee Kuan Yew, the late prime minister of Singapore, as a framework for their discussions. Mr. Lee promoted a set of relations among America, Japan and China that connected the three countries, but with America and Japan at the two closer corners.

消除这一观念分歧,应该排在安倍晋三要和特朗普一起解决的一系列问题的榜首。比如,他可以提议将已故新加坡总理李光耀(Lee Kuan Yew)宣扬的“等腰三角形”模式作为讨论的框架。李光耀曾宣扬在美国、日本和中国之间形成一系列将三个国家联系起来的关系,但美国和日本位于距离更近的两个角上。

Mr. Abe and Mr. Trump would also do well to explore new areas of cooperation, such as with Moscow. Although Russia may seem like a disruptive power from the vantage point of the West, it could be an agent of stability in the Asia-Pacific region.

此外,安倍晋三和特朗普最好再探索一下新的合作领域,比如在对俄关系上。尽管在西方看来,俄罗斯可能像是一个会引起混乱的国家,但它也可以成为一个促进亚太地区稳定的因素。

Mr. Trump has said he is confident that he can “get along” with strongmen like Vladimir V. Putin. George W. Bush had claimed the same, and failed. Mr. Abe, however, has met Mr. Putin more than a dozen times and has built a reliable constructive relationship with him. Working through Tokyo, Mr. Trump could seek to improve U.S.-Russia ties and encourage Moscow’s cooperation on issues of mutual interest, such as security on the Korean Peninsula, at the same time forestalling further rapprochement between Moscow and Beijing.

特朗普自称,有信心与像弗拉基米尔·V·普京(Vladimir V. Putin)这样的铁腕人物“融洽相处”。乔治·W·布什(George W. Bush)也说过同样的话,后来却以失败告终。但安倍晋三和普京举行过十余次会面,并同他建立起了一种值得信赖的、有建设性的关系。通过东京的帮助,特朗普可以争取改善美俄关系,并鼓励莫斯科在朝鲜半岛安全局势等共同关心的问题上进行合作,同时抢先防止莫斯科和北京进一步拉近关系。

The U.S.-Japan relationship is one of the most successful great-power alliances in recent history, and President-elect Trump must not allow the incoherences of his campaign-trail bluster to undermine it. If anything, he should take up Mr. Abe on his own commitment to bolster Japan’s leadership in the Asia-Pacific region in order to further strengthen ties between the two countries.

美日关系是过去一段时间里最成功的大国联盟之一,候任总统特朗普切不可让自己竞选期间前后不一致的夸张言论破坏这个联盟。如果要做点什么的话,那么他其实应该让安倍晋三信守承诺,加强日本在亚太地区的领导地位,以便进一步增强两国之间的关系。

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