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下届美国总统要如何解决朝鲜问题

更新时间:2016-9-15 14:00:12 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

How the Next President Can Stop North Korea
下届美国总统要如何解决朝鲜问题

WASHINGTON — It’s been a banner year for North Korea. The government in Pyongyang has already conducted 17 missile tests and two nuclear tests, including the most recent nuclear explosion on Friday. And there are still three and a half months left in 2016.

华盛顿——今年是朝鲜的好年头。平壤政府迄今已经进行了17次导弹试验,两次核试验,最近一次核爆炸是在上周五。而2016年还剩下足足三个半月。

Satellite photos of North Korea’s nuclear test site indicate that at least three more tests are possible at a moment’s notice. Since North Koreans often celebrate important dates with spectacular shows, the approaching 10th anniversary of its first nuclear detonation on Oct. 9 might be the perfect occasion.

朝鲜核试验场的卫星照片显示,短时间内可能至少还会进行三场试验。朝鲜经常会用博人眼球的表演庆祝一些重要日子,即将到来的10月9日是其首次核爆的十周年纪念,应该是个完美的契机。

Even more alarming is that at this rate, Pyongyang may be able to deploy more powerful nuclear weapons and more dangerous delivery systems more quickly than previously expected. Last year, researchers at the institute where I work concluded that by 2020 North Korea could field an intercontinental ballistic missile able to reach the United States. But if Pyongyang tests the missile that has appeared in recent military parades, it could be sooner. The simple hydrogen bomb the North Koreans were expected to have by 2020 now may be ready and mounted on a missile earlier.

更令人担忧的是,以目前的步调,平壤也许能以超出之前预想的速度,部署更加强大的核武器以及更危险的投放系统。根据我所在研究所的研究人员去年做出的判断,朝鲜有望在2020年部署可以抵达美国的洲际弹道导弹。但是如果朝鲜试验了近期阅兵式上出现的导弹,那么可能会更早。原本预计到2020年才具备的简易氢弹,可能现在就已经有了,也会更早地装载到一枚导弹上。

All of this bad news should, just in time for a new presidential administration, put to rest the misconceptions that have driven the United States’ failed North Korea policy, especially the idea that China, Pyongyang’s closest ally, will solve the problem.

这些坏消息的到来恰逢新一届政府即将组建,应该可以打消一直以来的错误认知,尤其是认为平壤的亲密盟友中国可以解决这一问题,美国在这些认知驱使下制定了失败的对朝政策。

Beijing would certainly prefer that Kim Jong-un give up his nuclear weapons. And the Chinese do occasionally use their economic ties with North Korea to pressure Pyongyang. But China’s overriding priority will continue to be keeping North Korea as a stable buffer against American influence in South Korea.

北京当然希望金正恩(Kim Jong-un)能放弃核武器。而中国也的确偶尔会利用与朝鲜的经济关系向平壤施压。但中国的首要目标是保持朝鲜这个稳定的缓冲区,抵御来自韩国的美国影响力。

The next administration must recognize that the United States, not China, is the indispensable nation when it comes to dealing with North Korea. Our allies, who look to us to provide leadership, already know this. So do the Chinese, who insist that only Washington can persuade the North Koreans to stop their bad behavior. North Korean officials have even told me in private that it is true for them, too.

下一届政府必须认识到,在朝鲜问题的处理上,最关键的国家不是中国而是美国。我们的盟友已经清楚这一点,它们都在期待美国担负领导者的角色。中国也是这样,它坚称只有华盛顿可以劝说朝鲜人停止那些恶劣的行径。甚至朝鲜官员私下里都对我说,他们也是这么认为的。

If a new administration understands that the United States must take the lead, it can use the substantial diplomatic, military and economic power at its disposal to manage and potentially resolve this challenge. At the core will be a willingness to take all necessary steps to protect our allies, even measures that can anger China, like the recent decision to deploy advanced missile defenses in South Korea. A new administration should also seek to tighten sanctions, just as the Obama administration is doing, recognizing that, because of China’s enduring support for the government in Pyongyang, sanctions will always fall far short of pressuring North Korea the same way they did Iran.

如果新一届政府能认识到美国必须带头,那就可以充分动用现有的外交、军事、经济力量,控制并有望解决这一挑战。这一切的核心是尽自己所能去保护盟友的意愿,包括不惜使用激怒中国的措施,比如近日在韩国部署先进导弹防御系统的决定。新一届政府还应该寻求更严厉的制裁,就像奥巴马政府现在做的那样,因为我们应该意识到,由于中国对平壤政府的持续支持,制裁给朝鲜构成的压力将永远不如对伊朗那么大。

A successful strategy will have to include a new diplomatic initiative aimed at persuading the North to first stop expanding its arsenal and then to eventually reduce and dismantle its weapons. To persuade the North Koreans to do this, Washington will have to address their security concerns. In the short term, that may mean temporarily suspending or modifying some American-South Korean military exercises. In the longer term, it may mean replacing the armistice in place since the end of the Korean War with a permanent peace agreement.

一个成功的战略必须包括开展新的外交行动,旨在说服朝鲜首先停止其核武库的扩张,而后再最终减少和解除其武器。要让朝鲜人这样做,华盛顿必须安抚他们对安全的担忧。在短期内,这可能意味着要暂时停止或改变一些美韩军事操练项目。从长远上看,可能需要把朝鲜战争结束后签订的停战条约,换成一份永久性的和平协议。

These initiatives will be met with skepticism not only in the United States — where many people believe that negotiating with North Korea is a waste of time — but also in Pyongyang. As a North Korean official, who believes a new administration will just tear up previous agreements, said to me earlier this year, “It’s easier for us to build nuclear weapons than to be involved with you for decades only to have agreements turn into useless scraps of paper.”

这些倡议在美国会招致怀疑的眼神——很多人认为和朝鲜谈判是白费功夫——在朝鲜也是这样。一位朝鲜官员认为新一届政府会直接把以前的协议撕毁,他在今年早些时候对我说,“与其花上几十年跟你们签一些最终变成废纸的协议,我们还是去造核武器更方便一些。”

Nevertheless, there are signs that North Korea is interested in dialogue. On July 6, the government issued a pronouncement ostensibly seeking denuclearization talks with the United States, specifically mentioning Kim Jong-un’s name in support of this initiative.

尽管如此,还有一些迹象表明朝鲜是愿意对话的。7月6日,该国政府发布了一份声明,看起来是希望与美国展开无核化谈判,尤其还提到了金正恩的名字,表示他支持这项倡议。

One reason North Korea may be motivated to consider denuclearization is economic. Since taking office in 2011, Mr. Kim has been committed to improving his country’s economy. He seems to believe that nuclear weapons would allow even more focus on that objective. Nevertheless, he has deliberately left room to ease off the nuclear track and explore a dialogue, perhaps reflecting an understanding that there are limits to what his country’s economy can achieve while it is isolated from the international community. Of course, no one is naïve enough to take these statements at face value. Talks between governments are the only way to know for sure.

朝鲜愿意考虑无核化的其中一个原因可能是经济。自2011年上台以来,金正恩一直致力于改善本国的经济状况。他似乎认为核武器可以让他更专注于这一目标。然而他还是有意留出了放慢核进程、寻求对话的余地,也许从中可以看出,他认识到在与国际社会隔绝的情况下,其国家在经济成就上会相当有限。当然,谁也不会天真到相信声明上的话。唯有通过政府间的谈判才能明确。

As the Obama administration winds down, little can be done to change policy at this point. Moreover, the North Koreans are unlikely to be responsive to new initiatives since they know that the next American administration will have its own approach. The first hundred days in office will be critical for the next American president. If a window is open to curb North Korea’s nuclear ambitions, it may not stay open for long.

随着奥巴马政府的退出,当前政策上很难有什么改变。况且朝鲜人也不太可能对新的倡议做出反应,因为他们知道下一届美国政府会有自己的方式。新任美国总统上任后的最初100天将是至关重要的。假设出现了抑制朝鲜核野心的机会,那么这个窗口期的持续时间肯定不会太长。

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