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微软重金收购领英:科技公司重回高估价时代?

更新时间:2016-6-15 11:04:30 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

For Microsoft, LinkedIn Deal Could Be a $26.2 Billion Time Machine
微软重金收购领英:科技公司重回高估价时代?

Microsoft’s blockbuster $26.2 billion takeover of LinkedIn might be an attempt to travel through time. Specifically, to the heady heights of yesteryear’s technology valuations.

微软(Microsoft)斥资262亿美元大手笔收购领英(LinkedIn),或许是穿越时空的一种努力。更具体地讲,是回到科技企业估值高企的时代。

And if other beleaguered tech companies think that suitors will pay such handsome sums, more transactions may be coming down the pike.

如果其他处于困境的科技公司觉得潜在收购者也会出这么高的价钱,那么可能会有更多的交易接连出现。

How generous is Microsoft’s takeover bid? It puts LinkedIn’s enterprise value at 79 times the social network’s earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, or Ebitda, for the 12 months that ended on March 31.

微软给出的收购价有多慷慨?它给领英的估值相当于这家社交网络截止到3月31日的12个月税息折旧及摊销前利润(简称Ebitda)的79倍。

On the basis of that multiple, the transaction is more expensive than any big internet deal paid with cash, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

彭博(Bloomberg)统计的数据显示,在放大这么多倍的估值基础上,这项交易的价格比之前任何一桩以现金支付的互联网行业重磅收购都高。

Microsoft is paying $220 for each of LinkedIn’s monthly active users. By comparison, when Facebook acquired WhatsApp for $19 billion two years ago, it spent $40 for every user.

微软获取领英月活跃用户的人均成本是220美元。相比之下,Facebook两年前以190亿美元收购WhatsApp时,为每个用户花费的资金是40美元。

For LinkedIn, the attractions of the deal are obvious: Its shares fell nearly 42 percent from the beginning of the year through last week, as investors expressed disappointment over a weak earnings forecast for 2016. Finding a buyer with deep pockets dulls the pain of being a publicly traded company.

对领英来说,达成这笔交易的好处显而易见:自今年初至上周,它的股价下跌了近42%,显示出投资者对该公司2016年走弱的营收预期的失望。找一个财力雄厚的买家,可以减轻一些做上市企业的痛苦。

Monday’s deal wasn’t the only richly valued technology takeover in recent days. On Sunday, Symantec said that it was buying Blue Coat, a provider of cybersecurity products, for $4.65 billion. That transaction valued Blue Coat at roughly 20 times its adjusted Ebitda and nearly 7.8 times its sales.

周一的交易不是最近几天出现的唯一一桩获得高估值的技术公司收购案。周日,赛门铁克(Symantec)表示计划以46.5亿美元收购网络安全产品供应商Blue Coat。这笔交易令Blue Coat的估值达到调整后的Ebitda的约20倍、年销售额的近7.8倍。

The question is whether other suitors will emerge with rich offers in hand.

问题在于,其他有意进行收购的公司是否会带着慷慨的收购要约出现。

One perennial subject of deal rumors is another social network: Twitter.

一个反复传出收购传言的对象是另一家社交网络:Twitter。

Shares of Twitter jumped nearly 7 percent in trading on Monday, borne aloft by investors’ hopes that the struggling tech company might finally receive a takeover offer. Twitter shares have fallen 64 percent since the company went public in 2013, as the social network has struggled to show growth in the face of tough competition from the likes of Facebook and Snapchat.

周一,Twitter的股价飙升了近7%。投资者希望这家苦苦挣扎的技术公司终于能拿到收购要约,将它的股价架在了高空。自2013年上市以来,Twitter的股价下跌了64%。在与Facebook和Snapchat等企业的激烈竞争之中,这家社交网络难以显示出增长。

Potential buyers for Twitter include Google and Facebook, analysts say, though they caution that Twitter’s valuation may need to fall more before a suitor steps up.

分析师表示,Twitter的潜在买家包括谷歌(Google)和Facebook,不过他们也提醒,可能要等Twitter的估值再降一些,买家才会出现。

At the price-to-sales multiple that Microsoft is paying for LinkedIn, roughly 7.2 times the social network’s revenue for the last 12 months, Twitter would fetch roughly $18.7 billion — or nearly double its current market value of $10 billion.

按照微软为收购领英支付的收入倍数计算——这家社交网络公司过去12个月营收的大约7.2倍——Twitter的收购价将达到187亿美元左右,几乎是它目前市值的两倍。

Some are skeptical, though, that the combination of Microsoft and LinkedIn (at that price) makes sense. No one wants to consummate the last big deal before a sector collapses — as was the case in 2000 when Time Warner merged with AOL, a $165 billion internet deal that became a nightmare after the tech bubble burst.

不过,一些人对这桩交易持怀疑态度,觉得微软和领英(以那样的高价)组合有些说不通。没人想做一个行业溃败之前的最后一宗大交易——就像2000年时代华纳(Time Warner)与美国在线(AOL)合并的情况,这桩价值1650亿美元的收购案在互联网泡沫破灭之后成了一个噩梦。

Microsoft’s bet on LinkedIn — which less than five months ago was trading above the acquisition price of $196 a share — suggests that tech has more room to run, even as some bears are projecting that another bubble is bound to pop.

微软下注领英——不到五个月前还在以高于每股196美元的收购价进行交易——显示出科技行业还有增长的空间,尽管一些唱空的人士在预测另一个泡沫即将破灭。

“Microsoft just paid on the assumption that we’re going back to the multiples we had a year ago, but I don’t think that’s happening,” said Max Wolff, chief economist at Manhattan Venture Partners.

“微软不过是基于一种设想进行投资,认为我们将回到一年前的那种估值倍数,但我并不觉得还会出现这种情况,”曼哈顿创投公司(Manhattan Venture Partners)首席经济师麦克斯·沃尔夫(Max Wolff)说。

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