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中国商务机市场在阵痛中稳步增长

更新时间:2016-5-24 20:35:53 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

China’s Aviation Market Is Taking Hold
中国商务机市场在阵痛中稳步增长

TAIPEI — In the mid-1980s, David Dixon was one of the first capitalists allowed by Beijing to fly over China in a business jet — with an escort.

台北——在80年代中期,戴维·迪克逊(David Dixon)是首批获得北京的允许,可以乘坐商务机飞越中国上空的资本家之一,但须有一人同行。

“You had to have what was called a ‘navigator,”’ said Mr. Dixon, president of Jetcraft Asia in Hong Kong. “I don’t know who he worked for, and it was quite clear he didn’t know how to navigate anything, but he did know exactly where you were and if you were heading anywhere toward military installations.”

“必须得有一名所谓的‘领航员’,”身为香港Jetcraft Asia总裁的迪克逊说。“我不知道他属于什么部门,他显然不知道怎么导航,但他的确清楚地知道你在哪儿,你是不是在飞向军事设施。”

Three decades later, China has embraced business aviation and is home to Asia’s largest business-jet fleet. After an extended period of rapid growth, it is experiencing growing pains that should be temporary, provided it can further relax its heavy control of its skies and airports.

三十年后,中国已经接受了商务航空行业,并拥有亚洲最庞大的商务机队。在经历了长期的快速发展后,中国正面临着日渐加剧的困难。如果能进一步放松对该国空域和机场的严格控制,这些困难应该是暂时的。

Data from the consultancy Asian Sky Group’s 2015 Asia Pacific Fleet Report shows that China, Hong Kong and Macau’s combined fleet saw a net addition of 26 jets last year, an increase of 6.2 percent, but just under half the net additions of 2014.

咨询公司亚翔航空(Asian Sky Group)发布的《2015亚太机队报告》(Asia Pacific Fleet Report)中的数据显示,去年,中国大陆、香港和澳门三地合起来的飞机数量净增26架,增幅6.2%,但仍不及2014年净增数量的一半。

Beginning in 2013, the campaigns reduced demand for new business jet orders, which once had a two-year backlog. Last year’s dropoff of new deliveries is “a worrying sign for 2016 and on,” the report notes, “as it would seem to signify that the OEM sales funnel for Greater China has little backlog.”

从2013年开始,这些运动减少了对新商务机订单的需求。这些订单一度要积压两年。去年新机交付量下降,“对于2016年及以后几年来讲,将会是令人担忧的迹象,”报告写道,“因为这似乎预示着大中华区的OEM销售漏斗不会有多少积压订单。”

Despite the end of 20-percent annual growth, many in the industry are expecting strong, steady growth for years.

尽管年增幅20%的时代结束了,但很多业内人士预计,强劲、稳定的增长会持续数年。

“I think we’re definitely seeing an uptick from a year ago,” said Jason Liao, chairman and C.E.O. of China Business Aviation Group. “I’m very positive. I think we’ll see an average of 10 percent, sustainable long-term growth.”

“我认为和一年前相比,目前肯定是在小幅增加,”中国公务航空集团董事局主席兼首席执行官廖学锋说。“我非常乐观。我认为我们会看到长期保持在平均10%的可持续增长。”

China’s shift from being a global investment destination to becoming a global investor is also changing the market.

中国从全球投资目的地到全球投资者的转变,也改变着这个市场。

“China’s commercial interests are spreading all over, to Africa, to South America, regions which are not necessarily their traditional markets,” Mr. Dixon said. “When they go looking for resources, they’re usually in remote areas, so access becomes crucial. How do you get from Beijing to Angola easily and when you want to? The answer is business aviation.”

“中国的商业利益正在向非洲和南美这些不一定是其传统市场的地方全面扩张,”迪克逊说。“寻找资源时,他们去的通常是偏远地区,因此交通变得至关重要。如何在想去的时候就能轻而易举地从北京去到安哥拉?答案就是商务航空。”

For many Chinese businesses, that means long-range, wide-body aircraft. The top two models delivered to China and Hong Kong in 2015 were Bombardier’s Global 6000 and Gulfstream’s G650, designed for long-range use. Bombardier’s 2015 market forecast predicts that greater China will account for 875 deliveries valued at $33 billion in the coming decade, with medium and large aircraft accounting for 90 percent.

对很多中国企业来说,那意味着远程宽体机。2015年交付给中国大陆和香港数量最多的两款飞机是庞巴迪(Bombardier)的环球6000和湾流(Gulfstream)的G650。它们都是远程型飞机。庞巴迪2015年的市场预测预计,未来十年,大中华区将有875架新飞机交付,价值330亿美元,其中中型和大型飞机占90%。

“Geographic positioning of the Asia Pacific region and distances between major cities necessitates the need for long-range aircraft,” said Khader Mattar, Bombardier’s vice president of sales for the Asia Pacific region and China. “We expect the Chinese market to be one of the four most active markets and to generate the most deliveries over the next 10 years.”

“亚太地区的地理位置和主要城市之间的距离,使远程飞机成为必要,”庞巴迪负责亚太及中国区销售的副总裁马可达(Khader Mattar)说。“我们预计未来十年,中国市场会成为四个最活跃的市场之一,新机交付量是最大的。”

China’s business aviation market should benefit from support from Beijing, which has mentioned general aviation in the past two five-year plans.

中国的商务航空市场应该会从北京的支持中受益。在过去的两份五年规划中,北京均提到了通用航空。

“General aviation is becoming one of the main directions in China’s national policy,” said Fang Xinyu, vice president of Deer Jet, China’s largest charter provider, now in its 21st year of operation. “The government is encouraging more investment in this industry.”

“通用航空正在成为中国国家政策的主要方向之一,”金鹿公务副总裁方新宇说。“政府正在鼓励加大对这个行业的投资。”成立21年的金鹿公务,已发展成中国最大的包机服务供应商。

Last year Deer Jet added two new fixed-base operators to its domestic network, which now totals eight. Its fleet size has dropped below 90 aircraft as it moves to replace older aircraft, and its turnover rose 10 percent, with its share of the Chinese charter market now at 70 percent, Mr. Fang said. The market is maturing but has far to go, he said. “We are still short of pilots, mechanics and even professional marketers.”

去年,金鹿公务的国内服务网络新增两家固定基地运营商,总数达到了八家。方新宇称,随着公司更换老旧飞机,其机队的规模降至不足90架,同时公司营业额增加10%,目前在中国包机市场占70%的份额。这个市场正在不断成熟,但还有很长的路要走,他说。“我们依然缺飞行员、机修人员甚至专业的市场营销人员。”

Denzil White, C.E.O. at Deer Jet subsidiary Hongkong Jet, said the regulatory environment for business aviation in China also has room for improvement. “In America, I can decide at two o’clock in the afternoon that I want to leave at five o’clock from Los Angeles and fly to New York, and it’s quite possible to do it,” he said. “Here, if you get all your ducks in a row it’s a minimum of two days.”

金鹿公务旗下的香港商务航空公司首席执行官登齐尔·怀特(Denzil White)表示,中国商务航空的监管环境还有改善的空间。“在美国,我可以在下午2点决定5点从洛杉矶飞纽约,这是很有可能实现的,”他说。“在这里,一切准备好至少需要两天。”

Other issues include restrictions on flight times, extremely limited flight paths due to military control of the skies and limited access to the high altitudes for which many jets are designed.

其他问题包括对飞行时间的严格限制、空中军事管制导致的飞行路线极其有限以及对进入高空的限制。很多飞机正是为高空飞行设计的。

A two-decade shortage of pilots has been addressed by more training centers, Mr. Liao said, but now there is a shortfall of captains, a problem that will be resolved in the coming two to three years once today’s first officers have met their flying hours requirements.

廖学锋称,培训中心的增加解决了持续二十年的飞行员短缺问题,但现在还缺机长,未来两三年里,一旦现在的副驾驶满足了飞行时间的要求,这个问题就解决了。

A lack of sufficient slots and parking spaces at busier airports, especially Hong Kong International Airport (HKIA), where 132 business jets are served by a lone FBO , is also a major issue. “Hong Kong has a population in excess of seven million, with only one airport,” Mr. White said. “Most other major cities with this size population have a choice of four or more airports.”

在较繁忙的机场,缺乏足够的时隙和停机位也是一个大问题,尤其在香港国际机场,132架商务机只有一家固定基地运营商提供服务。“香港的人口超过700万,却只有一座机场,”怀特说。“人口规模相当的其他主要城市大部分都有四座或更多机场可供选择。”

Hong Kong missed an opportunity to avoid this situation 18 years ago, when it could have retained its airport at Kai Tak for business jets. It has since been converted into a cruise ship terminal. As a result, a Hong Kong businessman returning home in his business jet may be denied landing and/or parking at HKIA due to slot restrictions, he said.

在18年前,香港错过了避免这种情况的机会。当时,它本可以将启德机场保留下来,供商务机起降。那里现在被改建成了邮轮码头。怀特说,结果就是香港商人回家时乘坐的商务机,可能会因为时隙限制而无法降落并/或停在香港国际机场。

To address that problem, Mr. White advocates forming a Pearl River Delta customs and immigration-free zone allowing business jets to land at airports in Hong Kong, Macau, Shenzhen and Zhuhai, and for passengers to commute within the zone by helicopter. “That would instantly resolve the parking and slot limitations for HKIA,” he said.

为了解决这个问题,怀特主张建立一个珠江三角洲移民和海关免检区,允许商务机在香港、澳门、深圳和珠海的机场降落,乘客可乘坐直升机在免检区内往返。“这样立马就解决了香港国际机场停机位和时隙有限的问题,”他说。

China has fewer than 300 airports, against more than 5,000 in the United States. Mr. Liao said China is adding 20 airports a year and, even if that number rose, there are no short-term concerns of an airport glut for the world’s most populous country. “Even if they’re building 50 airports a year, in 10 years that’s 500, in 100 years that’s 5,000,” he said. “It’s still a very small number.”

中国的机场不足300座。相比之下,美国有5000多座机场。廖学锋称中国每年会新增20座机场,即便这个数字出现增加,短期也不用担心这个全世界人口最多的国家会出现机场过剩的问题。“即便一年修50座机场,十年是500座,100年也才5000座,”他说。“这个数字依然很小。”

Mr. White emphasized the need for a vision for the development of China’s business aviation industry. “It is inevitable that the Chinese business jet population will eventually grow to a size similar to the U.S.,” he said. “However, without open skies, improved infrastructure and qualified manpower, this is not likely to happen in the near future.”

怀特强调,对待中国商务航空业的发展要有远见。“中国的商务机数量最终必然会发展到与美国类似的规模,”他说。“然而,如果不开放空域、改善基础设施并配备合格的人手,这一幕近期不太可能出现。”

Mr. Dixon expressed cautious optimism that infrastructure gains may be followed by further liberalization of the operational environment. “Hopefully they will open up more airways and more airspace,” he said. “If you see how far China’s come since the eighties, it’s moved a long way, but we would like to see it move faster.”

对于基础设施得到改善后,运营环境可能会进一步放松这一点,怀特持谨慎乐观的态度。“希望他们会开放更多航线和空域,”他说。“如果从中国自80年代以来的变化来看,的确是变化巨大,但我们想看到它变得更快。”

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