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全球气温连续11个月创同比新高

更新时间:2016-4-20 18:34:31 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

2016 Already Shows Record Global Temperatures
全球气温连续11个月创同比新高

This year is off to a record-breaking start for global temperatures.

今年一开始,全球气温就频频刷新纪录。

It has been the hottest year to date, with January, February and March each passing marks set in 2015, according to new data from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.

美国国家海洋与大气管理局(National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration,简称NOAA)的新数据显示,到现在为止,今年是最热的年份,1月、2月和3月的气温都超过了2015年的纪录。

March was also the 11th consecutive month to set a record high for temperatures, which agencies started tracking in the 1800s.

今年3月也是连续第11个刷新温度纪录的月份。监测机构从1800年开始追踪气温数据。

With the release on Tuesday of its global climate report, NOAA is the third independent agency — along with NASA and the Japan Meteorological Association — to reach similar findings, each using slightly different methods.

NOAA本周二公布了全球气候报告,它是第三所得出类似结果的独立机构,另外两所是NASA和日本气象协会(Japan Meteorological Association),它们各自使用的方法略有差异。

The reports add a sense of urgency at the United Nations, where world diplomats are gathered this week to sign the climate accord reached late last year in Paris, when 195 nations committed to lower greenhouse gas emissions and to stave off the worst effects of climate change.

这份报告在联合国引发了更大的紧迫感,本周,世界各国外交官聚集在这里,签署去年年底在巴黎达成的气候协定,当时有195个国家承诺要减少温室气体排放,以延缓气候变化将会带来的最严重影响。

Since the initial agreement was reached, other global anomalies have been reported that punctuate the threat of climate change, including troubling trends on Arctic sea ice, floods, drought and carbon dioxide levels in the atmosphere.

自最初协议达成以来,全球各地发生的其他异常现象突显了气候变化的威胁,令人不安的趋势涉及北极海洋冰、洪水、干旱,以及大气中二氧化碳含量。

Some of these — warm temperatures and heavy rains in particular — can be explained in part by this year’s El Niño phenomenon, which scientists predicted would release large amounts of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere, causing irregular weather patterns across the globe.

其中一些趋势——特别是高温和暴雨——部分原因可以由今年的厄尔尼诺现象来解释,科学家们预计,它将让太平洋把大量热量释放到大气中,在全球范围内引起不规律的天气变化。

But the effects of the current El Niño have been exacerbated by global warming, a result of emissions of greenhouse gases by humans, said Jessica Blunden, a climate scientist with NOAA and lead author of the report.

但NOAA气候科学家、这份报告的主要作者杰西卡·布伦登(Jessica Blunden)说,人类排放温室气体导致的全球变暖,已经加剧了当前的厄尔尼诺现象。

El Niño is on its way out, and ocean temperatures in the tropical Pacific peaked in November, said Kevin Trenberth, a senior scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research.

美国国家大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research)资深科学家凯文·特伦伯思(Kevin Trenberth)说,厄尔尼诺目前处在衰减阶段,热带太平洋的海洋温度在11月份达到了峰值。

But the heat the ocean had stored had to go somewhere: “It’s come out and been distributed around the world,” which helps explain record warm temperatures and wildfires in the Southern Hemisphere, Mr. Trenberth said.

但是,海洋已经储存的热量必须散发到某个地方:“它散发出来,分散在世界各地,”特伦伯思说这有助于解释创纪录的高温和南半球的野火现象。

To get an idea of how much of the record heat is caused by El Niño and how much by global warming, Dr. Blunden said that scientists at NOAA compared this El Niño to the last strong one, in 1997-98, which was also record-setting for its warmth. This one has pushed past those records by raising global temperatures an additional 0.8 degree or so, Dr. Blunden said.

布伦登说,为了弄清创纪录的高温在多大程度上是由厄尔尼诺引起的,多大程度上是由全球变暖造成的,NOAA的科学家们把这次厄尔尼诺和上一次强烈的厄尔尼诺袭击进行比较,也就是1997到1998年期间,当时也创下了高温纪录。布伦登说,结果他们发现,全球变暖导致了额外0.8度左右的升温。

The high temperatures in March probably signaled the last gasp of El Niño, and surface temperatures across the globe are likely to begin to fall this year. Often, El Niños are followed by La Niña storm systems, which can usher in cooler periods, Dr. Blunden said.

3月份的高温可能是厄尔尼诺的最后一口气,全球范围内的表面温度今年有可能开始下降。布伦登说,通常情况下,厄尔尼诺现象之后会出现拉尼娜风暴现象,迎来一段比较冷的时期。

But after more than two record-setting hot years — 2014 and 2015 and an extremely warm few months in 2016 — many of the devastating effects of the one-two punch of global warming and El Niño may be inescapable, setting the world on a course for an extended period of rapid global warming, after a period of relatively slow warming that began in 1998 and lasted for about a decade.

从1998年开始,升温速度相对缓慢的时期持续了大约十年,但是在创纪录的高温持续了两年多之后——2014年和2015年,以及2016年极为暖和的几个月——全球变暖和厄尔尼诺现象的双重暴击可能会不可避免地造成破坏性影响,让地球进入一条快速升温的长期轨道。

Dr. Blunden said that the Arctic was seeing some of the most abnormal weather on earth, with temperatures about 6 degrees warmer than the average over all. These highs could lead to record melting of Arctic sea ice this summer; the ice cover is at its lowest since measurements began to be taken in the late 1970s.

布伦登表示,北极圈正在出现地球上最反常的一些气候,其温度比平均水平高出大约6度。这样高的温度可能会导致今年夏天北冰洋冰川融化程度达到历史新高;自1970年末展开监测以来,这里的冰盖厚度已达到历史最低水平。

Dr. Trenberth said that these conditions did not represent “a new normal” and that it was difficult to determine the long-term consequences of this El Niño on both global temperatures and Arctic sea ice cover.

特伦伯思表示,这些情况不代表“一种新常态”,很难确定厄尔尼诺现象究竟会对全球气温和北冰洋冰盖带来什么长期影响。

He is not sure if 2016 will prove to be as warm as 2015 — “I’m betting it’s a tossup,” he said — but added that it’s not the record heat that comes as a shock.

他不确定2016年是否会被证明和2015年一样热——“我觉得这事很难讲,”他说——不过他也表示,它不是那种让人大为震惊的创纪录高温。

The magnitude of the jump “is indeed surprising,” Dr. Trenberth said.

尽管气温上升的幅度“的确让人意外”,特伦伯思说。

A central feature of the Paris climate agreement was to hold the increase in the global average temperature to less than 2 degrees Celsius (3.6 degrees Fahrenheit) warmer than preindustrial levels, and to try to limit the increase to about 1.5 degrees Celsius.

巴黎气候协议的一个中心点,是将全球平均气温上升幅度控制在比前工业化时代高2摄氏度的范围,尽力将这种增长控制在大约1.5摄氏度。

As global temperatures are already nearing the 1.5-degree threshold, and some months have been about 1 degree or more above average, this goal might be difficult to achieve, Dr. Trenberth said.

特伦伯思表示,随着全球气温上升程度已经在接近1.5摄氏度的门槛,有些月份比平均值高出1摄氏度甚至更多,这一目标可能很难达到。

“I don’t see at all how we’re going to not go through the 1.5 degree-number in the next decade or so,” Dr. Trenberth added.

“我真不知道,在接下来十年左右的时间里,怎么可能不达到1.5摄氏度的增长。”特伦伯思接着说道。

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