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金融学教授朱宁谈中国经济的“刚性泡沫”

更新时间:2016-4-20 10:29:33 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Q. and A.: Ning Zhu on the ‘Guaranteed Bubble’ in China’s Economy
金融学教授朱宁谈中国经济的“刚性泡沫”

In his new book, “China’s Guaranteed Bubble,” Ning Zhu, a professor at the Shanghai Advanced Institute of Finance, dissects the risks accumulating in China’s economy, especially in its financial sector. In an interview, he explained his argument that the Chinese government’s implicit guarantees to banks, state-owned corporations, local governments and investment areas such as the housing and stock markets have encouraged levels of leverage that are increasingly hazardous as the country’s economy slows.

上海交通大学高级金融学院教授朱宁在其新书《刚性泡沫——中国经济为何进退两难》(英文名"China's Guaranteed Bubble")中,剖析了中国经济、特别是金融行业的风险积累。他在一次采访中解释刚性泡沫时说,中国政府为银行、国有企业、地方政府,以及诸如楼市和股市等投资领域提供的隐性担保,鼓励了高杠杆率,其危险性随着经济增长放缓而越来越大。

Q. What do you mean by a “guaranteed bubble”?

问:你书名中的“刚性泡沫”是什么意思?

A. There are two major messages in the title. First, that well-intended guarantees eventually lead to a bubble. It’s conceivable that if investors believe their investment returns are guaranteed, they will use ways, such as increasing leverage or opaque financial innovations, to take greater risks, leading to overspeculation and a bubble in asset prices.

答:新书名包含两大信息。首先,出于好心的担保最终导致泡沫。可以想象,如果投资者相信他们的投资收益得到担保的话,他们会用诸如增加杠杆率或不透明的金融创新等方式来承担更大的风险,从而导致过度投机和资产价格泡沫。

Second, without meaningful structural reform in the Chinese economy and financial sector, what’s been going on in the past few years will eventually lead to a bubble. A bubble and subsequent bust are not a matter of whether, but when. Overspeculation leads to poor investments, and the debt overhang becomes so big that it eventually causes the bubble to burst. I hope this book will serve as a wake-up call, because the window for defusing this time bomb is closing, given how fast debt has increased in the past few years.

第二,中国经济和金融行业不做出有意义的结构性改革的话,过去几年中发生的事情将最终导致泡沫。泡沫以及随之而来的破裂,不是是否发生的问题,而是什么时候发生的问题。过度投机导致低质量的投资,债务积压越来越大,最终导致泡沫破裂。我希望这本书的作用是敲响警钟,考虑到过去几年中债务增长速度之快,拆除这个定时炸弹的机会窗口正在关闭。

Interestingly, some readers in China complained about the title. Some thought I meant that the bubble is guaranteed by the government and therefore will never burst. There are a lot of people scared of the bubble bursting, but just as many who believe we’re already in a bubble and are waiting for the bubble to burst to snap up assets.

有意思的是,一些中国读者对书的英文名有意见。有些人认为,我的意思是,泡沫是由政府担保的,因此永远不会破裂。很多人害怕泡沫破裂,但也有同样多的人认为我们已经处在一个泡沫之中,他们正在等待泡沫破裂后抢购资产。

Q. Are you among the economists who believe a hard landing is inevitable?

问:你是相信硬着陆不可避免的那类经济学家吗?

A. No. I tend to think that we are at a crossroads where what we do now may have profound, even irreversible, influences on the Chinese economy. There are certainly many short-term challenges, such as slowing growth, increasing unemployment and disappointing capital market performance. However, if policy makers decide to sacrifice long-term growth to solve short-term problems, we’ll be facing even greater problems. In some sense, the challenges that China’s economy faces now are consequences of the 2009, 4 trillion renminbi [$586 billion] stimulus package and accompanying credit expansion.

答:不是。我倾向于认为,我们正处在一个十字路口上,我们现在的所做所为,可能对中国经济产生深刻、甚至是不可逆转的影响。当然,目前有许多短期的挑战,比如经济增长放缓、失业率上升、资本市场表现令人失望等等。但是,如果政策制定者用牺牲长期增长的决定来解决短期问题的话,我们将面临更大的问题。从某种意义上来说,中国经济目前面临的挑战,是2009年4万亿经济刺激、以及相应的信贷扩张的后果。

So no, I don’t think it’s inevitable, as long as China engages in active reform. However, time is running out. With ballooning debt and slowing growth, the Chinese government will have fewer deployable resources going forward. Given the already high valuations in the stock market and housing market, it’s not clear how far one can push the bubble without it bursting and having a catastrophic impact on China and the global economy. Now that China shoulders a large portion of global economic growth, whatever happens in China will have far-reaching implications for the rest of the world.

所以说,不,我不认为硬着陆不可避免,但前提是中国进行积极的改革。但是,时间已经不多了。债务在膨胀,经济增长在放缓,中国政府未来可部署的资源将会更少。鉴于股市和房市的估值已经很高,不清楚还有多大余地能推动泡沫增长而让其不破裂,不至于给中国乃至全球经济带来灾难性影响。如今,中国肩负着全球经济增长重任的很大一部分,中国无论发生什么事情,都将会对世界其他地区产生深远影响。

Q. What should the Chinese government do to address the imbalances and risks you describe?

问:中国政府应该怎么做,来缓解你所说的失衡问题和风险?

A. I listed three guarantees the government provides to the economy: a policy guarantee, capital guarantee and investment guarantee. Each one encourages people to invest and speculate. Many people in China buy real estate because they believe that the government will not let housing prices fall. Similarly, many Chinese who don’t know much about investments poured money into the stock market, because they believed the government would ensure that the stock market rose.

答:我认为政府为经济提供了三项担保:政策担保、资金担保和投资担保。全部都是鼓励人们投资和投机的。很多中国人购买不动产,因为他们相信政府不会让房价下跌。同样地,很多不太懂股市的中国人将大笔资金投入股市,因为他们相信,政府会保证股市的上涨。

To diffuse the risks, the government has to phase out its guarantees. It should stop providing guarantees for economic growth and investment performance and let the market play a maximum role in allocating resources.

为了分散风险,政府必须退出这种担保。它不应该再为经济增长和投资业绩打包票,而是让市场在资源配置中发挥最大作用。

Q. What’s your view of the policy proposals that have come out from the National People’s Congress?

问:你对全国人大上提出的政策建议有何看法?

A. They’re pointing in the right direction. However, it’s worth pointing out that it’s the implementation of the policies that will define China’s future. State-owned enterprise reform, fiscal and taxation reform and financial reform have become key reform areas in almost all N.P.C. policies of the past several years. However, because of the dedication to short-term economic growth, many of the necessary reforms have been put on hold or even reversed.

答:它们的方向是正确的。但是值得指出的是,塑造中国未来的是政策的实施。在过去几年的几乎所有人大政策中,国有企业改革、财税改革和金融改革都已是关键改革领域。但是,由于着眼于短期的经济增长,很多必要的改革已被搁置,甚至遭到逆转。

Q. What reactions have you received from readers of the Chinese edition?

问:中文版读者有怎样反应?

A. Somewhat surprisingly, it’s been well received not only among ordinary readers, but also government officials. I’ve given speeches at government agencies, and the audience has agreed with me on the urgent need for further reforms. There has also been a lot of interest from banks and shadow-banking companies. They feel that the “implicit guarantees” that have propelled their industries are being phased out and are preparing for the transition.

答:反响不错,有些意外的是这里面不只有普通读者,还有政府官员。我在政府机关做演讲,听众赞成我的看法,也觉得迫切需要进一步改革。而且银行和“影子银行”公司也有很大兴趣。他们觉得,推动他们行业发展的“隐性担保”正在退出,为转型做准备。

I’d like to add that this challenge is not unique to China. In the February G-20 central banker and finance minister summit meeting, leaders from major economies agreed to use more active fiscal policies to boost global economic growth. We may have reached a point, at least in some major economies, where leaders are setting unrealistic objectives for economic growth. I think global leaders need to realize that high economic growth is very difficult to achieve after a certain threshold, and can in fact cause much unwarranted risk for future generations.

我想补充一点,这个挑战并非是中国独有的。在今年2月的G20央行行长和财长峰会上,主要经济体的领导人都同意采用更积极的财政政策来推动全球经济增长。我们可能已经达到了一个阶段,至少在一些主要的经济体,领导人设定的经济增长目标不切实际。我认为,全球领导者需要认识到,在达到某个阈值之后,经济高速增长是非常困难的,而且真的有可能给子孙后代带来太多不必要的风险。

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