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中国楼市反弹暴露深层经济风险

更新时间:2016-4-19 7:46:57 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

Chinese Housing Market Shakes Off a Slump
中国楼市反弹暴露深层经济风险

HONG KONG — China’s slowdown — which has cast a shadow over the global economy and worried investors around the world — stems in part from a deep slump its its crucial property market.

香港——中国的发展放缓已给全球经济蒙上一层阴影,也让世界各地的投资者担忧。发展放缓的部分原因是国内重要的房地产市场的深度萧条。

Now that slump appears to be easing, as construction cranes return in some cities and real estate offices in some of the best neighborhoods fill up again with buying customers.

现在,随着起重机重返某些城市的建设工地,一些最好地段的房地产销售处也重新充满了要购房的客户,房地产的萧条看似有所缓解。

Prices for new homes in the country’s biggest cities are rising sharply, led by the southern boomtown of Shenzhen, where prices jumped a staggering 62 percent in March, compared with the same period a year earlier, according to official data released on Monday.

据官方周一公布的数据,中国最大城市的新房价格大幅上涨,南部新兴城市深圳的涨幅最高,3月份,深圳新房价格与上年同期相比,上涨幅度达到了惊人的62%。

The real estate resurgence comes as growth across the rest of the economy is slowing, providing a welcome and significant boost. Some economists estimate property accounts for as much as a quarter of China’s gross domestic product.

房地产业的复苏发生在整体经济其他部分的增长正在放缓之际,因此为经济提供了一个受欢迎的重要推动。一些经济学家估计,房地产业占中国国内生产总值(GDP)的四分之一。

But the figures also provide more evidence that China is increasingly a two-track economy, something Premier Li Keqiang himself has nodded to, as the gap between winning and losing industries and regions has become increasingly pronounced.

但是,这些数字也提供了更多的证据表明,随着赢家行业和地区与输家行业和地区之间的差距越来越大,中国经济正在日益走上双轨发展的道路,李克强总理本人也承认了这点。

That raises the risk that the rebound is too narrow to be sustainable — it is concentrated in China’s biggest and richest cities — and that it will not outgrow the huge oversupply of unsold homes that haunts China’s smaller and farther-flung metropolises.

这也提高了经济复苏的范围过于狭窄、复苏不可持续的风险,房地产业的好转主要集中在中国最大、最富裕的城市,并没有让困扰着中国小城市和边远城市的大量过剩的未售出房屋得到消减。

The dramatic price increases make it difficult for policy makers to justify further economic stimulus.

房价的惊人上涨让政策制定者难以找到采取进一步经济刺激的理由。

“People living in major cities increasingly find property prices unaffordable,” said Raymond Yeung, China economist at the Australia and New Zealand Banking Group.

“在大城市生活的人发现房价越来越负担不起,”在澳新银行(Australia and New Zealand Banking Group)研究中国经济的专家杨宇霆(Raymond Yeung)说。

“Although the pickup of the property sector helps stabilize economic growth, it will also restrain the central bank’s appetite for further monetary policy easing,” Mr. Yeung added.

“虽然房地产行业的好转有助于稳定经济增长,但这也将抑制央行进一步宽松货币政策的胃口,”杨宇霆补充说。

Analysts noted that the current uptick in prices has been the role played by illegal financing, in which sales agents or other third parties provide loans to cover down payments. That practice recently prompted a crackdown by the authorities.

分析人士指出,非法贷款在目前的价格上扬中起了作用,非法贷款指的是销售代理商或其他第三方为支付购房首付所提供的贷款。这种做法最近已引起当局的打击。

According to data released Saturday, real estate is now the fastest-growing component of China’s economy, with the sector’s contribution to gross domestic product rising 9.1 percent from the level of a year earlier in the first three months of the year. Financial services, by contrast, grew 8.1 percent — only half as fast as during the peak of the stock market boom last year.

据周六公布的数据,房地产业目前是中国经济增长最快的组成部分,与去年1季度相比,房地产行业的国内生产总值增长了9.1%。相比之下,金融行业环比增长8.1%,只有去年股市繁荣期高峰增长率的一半。

The rebound has meant brisk business for people like Wu Chao, a manager at a branch office of Maitian, a popular Beijing real estate agency.

房地产业的好转,对吴超(音)这样的人来说,意味着生意兴隆,他是北京房产中介公司麦田房产一家分店的经理。

In an interview on Monday at his sales office Shuangjing, an affluent area in central Beijing with a nice view of the main business district and a short walk to an international school, Mr. Wu explained some of the main reasons for the property price rally.

周一,他在麦田房产双井店接受采访时,解释了房价上涨的主要原因,双井是北京市中心一个富裕地段,可以看到主要商业区的美景,走不多远就有一所国际学校。

Nearly all of the factors cited by Mr. Wu involved changes in or market reactions to government policy. Those included restrictions on home purchases in Beijing by nonresidents; the annual meeting last month of the national legislature; the official end of the one-child policy; and recent central bank actions.

吴先生列举的所有原因几乎都与政府政策的变化、以及市场对政策变化的反应有关。这些包括对非北京居民在北京购房限制的变化,上个月结束的全国人大,独生子女政策的正式结束,以及近期的央行行动。

Most wealthy Chinese prefer not to borrow for home purchases, settling the deals in cash instead. But Mr. Wu said a round of interest rate cuts had made mortgages increasingly attractive.

大多数有钱的中国人不喜欢借钱购房,而是喜欢现金交易。不过,吴先生说,几轮降息已让抵押贷款变得越来越有吸引力。

“Even very rich people sometimes would not pay the full amount,” he said of this trend. “They will take advantage of loans to buy homes.”

“即使非常有钱的人有时也不会付全款,”他讲到这一趋势是说。“他们会利用贷款来购买住房。”

Still, some economists doubt the recent rally can be sustained for much longer.

不过,一些经济学家怀疑房地产业的近期升温能持续更长的时间。

Zhao Yang, the chief China economist at Nomura in Hong Kong, pointed to the huge supply of homes either still under construction or completed but unsold. He calculates that floor space under construction is enough to supply more than six years’ worth of sales.

野村证券(香港)首席中国经济学家赵阳指出,仍有大量的建成但尚未售出、或在建的房屋库存。他的计算表明,在建的建筑面积足够供应六年以上的销售。

“The sector still faces long-term destocking pressures,” Mr. Zhao wrote Monday in an email.

“房地产行业仍长期面临着去库存的压力,”赵阳周一在一封电子邮件中写道。

A turnaround in the government’s policy stance is also a factor, as it seeks to limit the risk that the market could deflate in a messy fashion.

政府政策立场的改变也是一个因素,政府在寻求降低房市可能以混乱的方式崩溃的风险。

“During this round of price surge, there are signs of bubble factors,” Mr. Zhao wrote. “The government has started to roll out policies to rein in the increase of housing prices.”

“这轮涨价潮中也有泡沫因素的迹象,”赵阳写道。“政府已经开始推出政策来遏制房价的上升。”

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