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中国外汇储备五个月来首次增长

更新时间:2016-4-8 10:09:05 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

China Stanches Flow of Money Out of the Country, Data Suggests
中国外汇储备五个月来首次增长

HONG KONG — China rattled markets around the world last year when vast sums of money began flowing out of the country. Estimated at nearly $1 trillion, the money flows represented growing skepticism that China would be able to fix its deep problems and resume its place as a driver of global economic growth.

香港——去年,由于巨额资金开始流出,中国曾让世界各地的股票市场恐慌。估计流出的金额接近1万亿美元,这种流动意味着人们越来越怀疑中国有能力解决其深层次的问题、恢复其作为全球经济增长动力的地位。

Doubts remain about Beijing’s ability to rev up slowing growth and patch up its frayed financial system. But new data suggests China has stanched, at least for now, the flow of money that had been pouring out of the country.

对北京扭转经济增长放缓、修补其分崩离析的金融体系的能力的怀疑仍然存在。但是,新数据表明,至少就目前而言,中国已经止住了资金的大量外流。

Chinese officials said on Thursday that the country’s hoard of foreign exchange reserves grew in March for the first time in five months. Those reserves — a $3.21 trillion pot of American dollars, euros, pounds and other currencies that China has accumulated over years of managing the value of its currency — are a rough proxy for money moving in and out of the country.

中国官员周四表示,该国的外汇储备3月份有所增长,这是五个月来的第一次。多年来,中国通过管理其货币的价值,积累了总值为3.21万亿美元的美元、欧元、英镑及其他货币组成的巨额外汇储备,外汇储备是现金进入和流出中国的粗略指标。

The growth signals a reversal from the winter, when worries about China’s growth and investor bets that the Chinese currency would weaken in value spurred swelling outflows of money, contributing to sell-offs in markets around the world.

外汇储备的增长意味着冬季的情况出现扭转。上个季度,由于人们对中国经济增长的担心,加上投资者押赌中国货币会贬值而引发大量资金外流,导致了全球各地股市出现抛售。

The shift now stems mainly from weakness in the American dollar, but also from China’s increasingly aggressive efforts to keep its people from sending money out of the country. Stability in the reserves and even a slight increase in the value of China’s currency, the renminbi, against the dollar also indicate a shift in strategy, economists and bankers say, as Chinese officials have more forcefully spoken out about shoring up their country’s currency and have taken efforts to help economic growth.

目前,外汇储备从下降转为增长的主要原因来自美元的疲软,但也由于中国阻止人民把钱转移到国外的日益积极的努力。经济学家和银行家说,外汇储备趋稳、以及中国货币人民币兑美元汇率的略微升高,也表明战略有所改变,中国官员在更强有力地谈论支撑本国的货币,也在帮助经济增长方面做了更多的努力。

What remains unclear is whether China will again start hemorrhaging money to the rest of the world if global financial markets deteriorate once more or if skepticism over the Chinese economy intensifies.

目前尚不清楚的是,如果全球金融市场再次恶化,或者人们对中国经济的怀疑加剧的话,中国的资金是否会再次大量外流。

Worries that the renminbi would decline further against the dollar eased in March as the dollar itself weakened against practically every currency, including the renminbi.

由于美元3月份兑几乎所有货币、包括人民币的汇率走弱,人们对人民币相对美元会进一步贬值的担忧有所减轻。

As expectations of a short-term decline in the renminbi faded, Chinese investors mostly stopped rushing to move money out of the country. The People’s Bank of China, the central bank, said on Thursday that the country’s foreign exchange reserves had climbed $10.3 billion during March.

随着对人民币在短期内贬值的预期消退,中国的投资者大都停止了把资金快速向国外转移的做法。作为央行的中国人民银行中国周四表示,中国的外汇储备3月份增长了103亿美元。

The reserves had declined $28.6 billion in February, $99.5 billion in January and $107.9 billion in December, an outflow that was fed by a gradual devaluation of the renminbi from mid-December through early January. Investors were moving their money out of China then for fear that it would otherwise have less buying power in dollars.

中国的外汇储备2月份减少了286亿美元,1月份减少了995亿美元,去年12月减少了1079亿美元,这些下降部分是因为去年12月中旬到今年1月初的人民币的逐步贬值。投资者们将他们的钱转移出中国,因为担心否则他们以美元为计的购买力将会降低。

“The capital outflow is very much linked to renminbi depreciation expectations,” Shen Jianguang, a China economist at Mizuho Securities, said.

“资本外流与对人民币贬值的预期紧密挂钩,”在瑞穗证券研究中国的经济学家沈建光说。

But the dollar weakened broadly in March as the Federal Reserve signaled that it had little appetite for interest rate increases this year. That made it less attractive for investors to shift their money to the United States. Confidence in China and emerging markets improved.

但随着美联储发出信号表示,它对今年加息的胃口不大,美元在3月份普遍走弱。这就降低了投资者把钱转移到美国的吸引力。对中国以及新兴市场的信心有所改善。

Zhou Xiaochuan, the governor of China’s central bank, and other Chinese policy makers helped stabilize the country’s reserves by making a series of public statements at the end of February saying that they saw no need for a further fall in the renminbi. They also hinted that China could do more to support flagging economic growth, although at the expense of adding to the country’s huge overhang of corporate debt.

中国央行行长周小川及其他政策制定者,通过在2月底发表的一系列公开声明,帮助稳定了中国的外汇储备,他们说,人民币没有持续贬值的基础。他们还暗示,中国可能会在支持疲弱经济的增长上拿出更多的措施,虽然这样做的代价是加重巨额企业债务的负担。

As net outflows of money slowed in March, the total value of the reserves in dollars rose slightly, to $3.21 trillion. That appeared to be because part of the reserves are held in euro-denominated and yen-denominated bonds, and the euro and yen strengthened against the dollar last month.

三月份,由于资金的净流出有所放缓,以美元计的外汇储备总值小幅上涨,达到3.21万亿美元。这看来是因为外汇储备的一部分是以欧元和日元计价的债券,而欧元和日元在上个月相对美元走强。

Without currency valuation effects, the reserves would have fallen $20 billion to $30 billion — still less of a fall than in previous months without the valuation effect, economists estimated.

据经济学家估计,如果没有这种汇率的影响,中国的外汇储备在3月份本会减少200亿至300亿美元,但仍减少的幅度仍比前几个月的小。

Many economists and traders say they believe that China will try to prevent a broad fall in the renminbi through early autumn. A weaker renminbi risks making China’s currency an election-year issue in the United States. The renminbi is also set on Oct. 1 to join a basket of currencies determined by the International Monetary Fund, a move Beijing is unlikely to imperil.

许多经济学家和交易商说,他们认为,中国会尽量避免人民币的普遍贬值,直到初秋。人民币走弱有让中国货币成为美国选举年所讨论的问题的风险。人民币也于10月1日被纳入国际货币基金组织确定的一篮子货币,北京不大可能会让这件事遭殃。

President Obama and other world leaders are scheduled to gather in early September in Hangzhou, China, for the annual Group of 20 summit meeting.

奥巴马总统以及其他世界领导人定于9月初将在中国杭州聚集,出席20国集团的年度首脑会议。

“Very few people think there will be a significant devaluation before the G-20,” said Michael Levi, a China specialist at the Council on Foreign Relations. “They’ve staked a lot of prestige on the G-20, and I don’t think they want it to be a fight over currency.”

“很少有人认为(人民币)会在G20峰会之前显著贬值,”美国外交关系委员会的中国问题专家迈克尔·莱维(Michael Levi)说。“他们把很多声望都寄托在G20峰会上,我觉得他们不希望让它成为有关货币战的会议。”

One way that China has stabilized the currency in the past couple of months has been to place large bets in currency markets that the renminbi will stay close to its current exchange rate. Those bets have largely offset big bets by hedge funds that China will allow the renminbi to decline further.

中国在过去几个月里稳定本国货币的一种方法是,在外汇市场上把大赌注押在人民币将基本保持其目前汇率上。这些赌注在很大程度上抵消了对冲基金下的大赌注,它们赌的是中国将允许人民币进一步贬值。

After months of pressure from the International Monetary Fund, China’s central bank disclosed that the traded value of its contracts betting on the continued strength of the renminbi was $28.9 billion. By contrast, China had only $2.44 billion worth of contracts effectively betting on renminbi weakness.

在国际货币基金组织几个月的压力之下,中国央行透露了其押注人民币持续走强合约的交易价值为289亿美元。相比之下,中国对人民币走弱的有效投注合同的价值只有24.4亿美元。

The twin questions still facing China involve whether anything could happen before the United States presidential elections in early November to destabilize the renminbi, and whether the overall Chinese economy will have become strong enough by then for Chinese households and companies to want to keep their money at home.

中国仍面临着两个问题,一个是在11月初美国总统选举之前是否会出现动摇人民币价值的情况,另一个是中国整体经济是否会在美国大选时变得足够强大,让中国的家庭和企业想把他们的钱留在国内。

If the dollar stops weakening in global currency markets before November and starts strengthening again, that would once more make the dollar more attractive to hold than the renminbi. And if China’s banking system encounters a sharp rise in defaults on its huge loans to troubled state-owned enterprises, that would also hurt the renminbi.

如果美元在11月前停止在全球货币市场上走弱、转为走强的话,那将让持美元、相对持人民币而言再次具有吸引力。如果中国的银行系统因其对处于困境的国有企业的巨额贷款而遇到的违约率急剧上升的话,这也会给人民币带来损伤。

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