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2015年,有史以来最热的一年

更新时间:2016-1-21 18:38:07 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

2015 Was Hottest Year in Recorded History, Scientists Say
2015年,有史以来最热的一年

Scientists reported Wednesday that 2015 was the hottest year in recorded history by far, breaking a record set only the year before — a burst of heat that has continued into the new year and is roiling weather patterns all over the world.

科学家周三宣布,2015年是有记录以来最热的一年,刷新了2014年才创下的纪录——这种趋势延续到了新的一年,扰乱了世界各地的气象规律。

In the continental United States, the year was the second-warmest on record, punctuated by a December that was both the hottest and the wettest since record-keeping began. One result has been a wave of unusual winter floods coursing down the Mississippi River watershed.

在美国本土,去年是有记录以来第二热的一年,而去年12月是最热、降水量最多的一个月。因此在密西西比河流域,出现了一波不同寻常的冬季洪水。

Scientists started predicting a global temperature record months ago, in part because an El Niño weather pattern, one of the largest in a century, is dumping an immense amount of heat from the Pacific Ocean into the atmosphere. But the bulk of the record-setting heat, they say, is a consequence of the long-term planetary warming caused by human emissions of greenhouse gases.

数月前,科学家们开始预计,全球气温记录会被刷新,部分原因是出现了百年一遇的强烈厄尔尼诺现象(El Niño),将太平洋的热浪送进大气。但是,他们说,在这种创纪录的气温中,很大部分都是人类排放温室气体导致地球长期变暖的后果。

“The whole system is warming up, relentlessly,” said Gerald A. Meehl, a scientist at the National Center for Atmospheric Research in Boulder, Colo.

“整个气候系统都在变暖,势不可挡”,位于科罗拉多州博尔德的国家大气研究中心(National Center for Atmospheric Research)的科学家杰拉德·A·米尔(Gerald A. Meehl)表示。

It will take a few more years to know for certain, but the back-to-back records of 2014 and 2015 may have put the world back onto a trajectory of rapid global warming, after period of relatively slow warming dating to the last powerful El Niño, in 1998.

1998年上次大型厄尔尼诺现象发生之后,曾出现了一个缓慢的升温阶段。但2014年和2015年连续刷新记录,可能已经让我们回到了全球迅速变暖的轨道。不过还需要几年的时间才能确定这一点。

Politicians attempting to claim that greenhouse gases are not a problem seized on that slow period to argue that “global warming stopped in 1998” and similar statements, with these claims reappearing recently on the Republican presidential campaign trail.

一些政界人士试图表明,温室气体不是什么大事,他们以升温放缓的阶段为依据,提出了“全球变暖在1998年就已停止”以及其他类似说法。最近,这些说法重新出现在了共和党总统竞选活动中。

Statistical analysis suggested all along that the claims were false, and the slowdown was, at most, a minor blip in an inexorable trend, perhaps caused by a temporary increase in the absorption of heat by the Pacific Ocean.

一直以来,统计分析都表明,这些说法并非事实,增速放缓充其量是必然趋势中的一个小插曲,也许是太平洋吸收的热量暂时增加所致。

“Is there any evidence for a pause in the long-term global warming rate?” said Gavin A. Schmidt, head of NASA’s climate-science unit, the Goddard Institute for Space Studies, in Manhattan. “The answer is no. That was true before last year, but it’s much more obvious now.”

“有任何证据表明全球变暖的长期速度出现停顿了吗?答案是否定的。去年之前就是如此,只是现在的情况更加明显了,”加文·A·施密特(Gavin A. Schmidt)说。他在美国航空航天局(NASA)位于曼哈顿的戈达德太空研究所(Goddard Institute for Space Studies)担任所长。

Michael E. Mann, a climate scientist at Pennsylvania State University, calculated that if the global climate were not warming, the odds of setting two back-to-back record years would be remote, about one chance in every 1,500 pairs of years.

宾夕法尼亚州立大学(Pennsylvania State University)气候科学家迈克尔·E·曼恩(Michael E. Mann)测算,如果全球气候没有在变暖,连续两年刷新记录的可能性非常小,大约每1500个两年,才会出现一次。

Given the reality that the planet is warming, the odds become far higher, about one chance in 10, by Dr. Mann’s calculations.

鉴于现实情况是地球正在变暖,这样的可能性就大幅增加了。根据曼恩博士的计算,大约每10个两年就会出现一次。

Two American government agencies, NASA, the National Aeronautics and Space Administration, and NOAA, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, compile separate analyses of the global temperature, based upon thousands of weather stations and ocean buoys scattered around the world.

美国的两家政府机构,NASA和国家海洋与大气管理局(NOAA),采集了世界各地数以千计的气象站和海洋浮标的信息,编写了各自的全球气温分析报告。

They released their results on Wednesday morning, showing 2015 as the warmest year in a global record that began in 1880. Preliminary data from the Japan Meteorological Agency also show record warmth for 2015, and a British monitoring program is expected to report a similar result in coming weeks.

周三上午,NASA和NOAA发布了分析结果,显示自从1880年有全球气象记录以来,2015年是最热的一年。日本气象厅的初步数据也显示2015年刷新了最热记录,英国的监测项目预计将在未来几周内发布类似结果。

NOAA previously reported that 2015 was the second-warmest year for the continental United States, after 2012.

NOAA此前曾发布报告称,2015年是美国本土第二热的一年,仅次于2012年。

The intense warmth of 2015 contributed to a heat wave in India last spring that turns out to have been the second-worst in that country’s history, killing an estimated 2,500 people.

在2015年的高热气候中,印度去年春天出现了该国历史上第二严重的热浪,导致大约2500人丧生。

The strong El Niño has continued into 2016, raising the possibility that this year, too, will set a global temperature record. The El Niño pattern is also disturbing the circulation of the atmosphere, contributing to worldwide weather extremes that include a drought in southern Africa, threatening the food supply of millions.

强烈的厄尔尼诺现象一直持续到了2016年,因此今年很有可能再次刷新全球气温纪录。厄尔尼诺还扰乱了大气循环,加剧了全球范围内的极端气候,其中包括非洲南部发生旱灾,对数以百万计人口的粮食供应构成了威胁。

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