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华尔街疯狂8月平静收官

更新时间:2015-9-2 9:46:10 来源:纽约时报中文网 作者:佚名

A Wild Month on Wall St. Ends Quietly
华尔街疯狂8月平静收官

For several years, parking one’s savings in the United States stock market seemed like a no-brainer. Not only did stocks steadily climb — giving investors far better returns than they could get from their bank accounts — the ride up was smooth.

多年以来,将积蓄投入美国股市似乎都是一个不用思考的结论。不仅股市持续攀升,投资者从股市得到的回报远远高于银行储蓄,而且股市上涨的趋势也相当平稳。

Then August broke the calm.

然而8月的行情打破了这种平静。

Stocks, as measured by the Standard & Poor’s 500-stock index, tumbled 6.3 percent in August, finishing the month on Monday with a decline of 16.69 points, or 0.8 percent, for the day. It was the worst monthly performance for the benchmark in over three years. The decline wiped more than $1 trillion off the value of stocks.

按标准普尔500指数衡量,股市8月下挫6.3%,周一即8月31日当日下挫16.69点,降幅0.8%。这是该基准指数三年来月度表现最差的一次。股市的下挫造成1万亿美元市值就此蒸发。

Crucially, the turbulence interrupted an unusually long period of tranquillity for investors.

最关键的后果是,市场的动荡打破了投资者经历的平静。这段平静期的时间之长可说是异乎寻常。

On five trading days in August, the S.&P. 500 moved up or down by more than 2 percent. Moves of that magnitude have been relatively rare in recent years.

今年8月,标准普尔500指数在5个交易日里出现了上下超过2%的浮动。在最近几年,这样的波动幅度比较罕见。

“We were in a bull market in complacency,” said Douglas Kass of Seabreeze Partners Management, a hedge fund firm. “I think that the spike in volatility that we’ve seen in the last 10 days is the precursor to further spikes.”

“之前我们在牛市里沾沾自喜,”对冲基金公司海风资产管理(Seabreeze Partners Management)的道格拉斯·卡斯(Douglas Kass)说。“我认为,过去10天我们看到的波动的激增,是市场进一步大幅震荡的先兆。”

In recent days, investors sold heavily as they grappled with new and old concerns.

最近几天,在远忧近虑之下焦灼不已的投资者们,开始大举出售手上的股份。

On Aug. 24, the Dow Jones industrial average was down over 1,000 points at one point during the day, before recovering somewhat. For the month, the Dow was down 6.6 percent, after losing 114.98 points, or 0.7 percent, on Monday.

8月24日,道琼斯(Dow Jones)工业平均指数一度下挫超过1000点,不过之后有所回升。周一,该指数再降114.98点,即0.7%之后。8月道指总降幅达到6.6%。

The main source of worry continues to be China’s $10 trillion economy, which appears to be slowing more than analysts had originally thought. The slowdown has raised fears that the country will now buy fewer goods and services from other countries, weighing on a global economy that has consistently struggled to gain traction since the financial crisis of 2008.

这种市场担忧的主要源头,依然是规模达10万亿美元的中国经济,其增速放缓的程度似乎超出了分析师此前的预期。中国经济放缓,已经引起不少担忧,人们担心中国从其他国家购买商品和服务的总量将会减少。全球经济自2008年金融危机之后就一直在艰难地寻求拉动力量,中国的放缓又使全球经济面临了更大的压力。

China’s leaders surprised financial markets with a surprise devaluation of the country’s currency on Aug. 11. And their efforts to shore up the stock market with interventions seemed to erode, rather than build, confidence.

中国领导层则采取了让金融市场意外的举措——在8月11日调低人民币汇率。但他们以干预手段救市的努力似乎进一步挫伤,而非进一步增强了市场信心。

Investors are also fretting, as they have for several years, over the direction of interest rates. The Federal Reserve has not raised rates since 2006, a policy stance that has helped stimulate the economy and drive financial markets higher.

投资者对美元利率的走向也感到焦虑,对此他们已经持续了好几年。自2006年开始,美联储(Federal Reserve)就没有再上调过美元利率,这项政策帮助刺激了美国经济,也推高了金融市场。

Last week, an influential Fed official, William C. Dudley, president of the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, calmed those worries, saying that he was less enthusiastic about the idea of raising rates in September. That helped propel stocks higher.

上周,颇具影响力的美联储官员、纽约联邦储备银行(Federal Reserve Bank of New York)行长威廉·C·达德利(William C. Dudley)表示,自己对9月份上调利率的想法不再那么热情了。这多少安抚了市场的忧虑情绪,使股票价格进一步上扬。

But over the weekend, other Fed officials at a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyo., indicated that an increase could still take place in September. If a raise were to happen, it would most likely be announced after Fed meetings scheduled for Sept. 16 and 17.

但上周末,在杰克逊霍尔参加会议的其他美联储官员则暗示,9月份美联储仍有可能调高汇率。如果真的上调汇率,美联储最有可能在定于9月16和17日举行的会议之后宣布消息。

Still, as August ended, some analysts found reasons to believe that the markets may have found a bottom.

但是随着8月结束,一些分析师似乎有理由相信,市场已经触底,有望反弹。

“I think we got the summer flu,” said Jonathan Golub, chief United States market strategist at RBC Capital Markets, “and this is behind us.”

“我认为我们是得了夏季流感,”加拿大皇家银行资本市场(RBC Capital Markets)美国首席分析师乔纳森·戈卢布(Jonathan Golub)说,“现在它已经过去了。”

One potentially bullish indicator is the price of oil. The benchmark New York crude contract has soared 26 percent from its low last week, to $48.32 a barrel on Monday. Oil had slumped this year, suggesting that demand for the commodity was falling as economies around the world slowed.

能显示出市场上扬潜力的一个指标是石油价格。至本周一,纽约商品交易所的原油期货合约基准价,已经从上周的低点飙升了26%,达到每桶48.32美元。今年石油价格曾下降不少,表明随着全球经济放缓,石油这种大宗商品的需求正在减少。

The latest bounce indicates that investors are betting that demand for oil will not weaken further.

最新的反弹显示,投资者认定石油需求不会进一步减弱。

“This is at least a sign that we’re not having an economic collapse,” Mr. Golub said.

“这个迹象至少可以说明,我们正在经历的不是经济崩盘,”戈卢布说道。

Stocks are no longer in a correction, the Wall Street term for when a market declines by more than 10 percent from its highs. The S.&P. 500 is now 7.5 percent below its all-time nominal high, reached in May. At its low last week, it was more than 12 percent lower.

股价已经走出调整(correction)阶段,这个华尔街术语用以指代市场从高点下降幅度超过10%的情况。标普500指数曾在今年5月达到历史高点,现在该指数比当时下降了7.5%。上周市场降至低点时,曾经比5月的高点低12%还要多。

At the end of trading on Monday, the Dow was 9.7 percent below its peak. The technology-heavy Nasdaq is now down 8.5 percent from its high. Unlike the other two market measures, however, it is up since the start of the year, by 0.9 percent.

周一收盘时,道琼斯指数比最高点低9.7%。高科技股集中的纳斯达克指数则比历史高点低8.5%。但与另外两个市场指数不同的是,该指数从今年初开始一直处于上涨态势,目前比年初上涨了0.9%。

Worries about the Fed and China came at a time when valuations on United States stocks — the yardsticks investors apply to stocks to decide if they are worth buying — were starting to look expensive. A big debate on Wall Street now is whether corporate earnings are strong enough to make stocks resilient if faced with further shocks from overseas and uncertainty about monetary policy.

人们对美联储和中国因素产生担忧之时,正值美国股票估值显得过高的时期——这是投资者用以衡量股票是否值得购买的依据。目前华尔街的一大争论是,如果受到海外市场动荡和货币政策不确定因素的进一步冲击,美国企业的营收增长能否支撑股市承受住冲击。

Some analysts still see enough strength to sustain the bull market for United States stocks that started back in 2009.

一些分析师认为,美国企业仍有足够的力量,可以支持美国股市继续保持自2009年开始的牛市。

“What we do is fall back on our process and our models,” said Mark H. Haefele, global chief investment officer at UBS’s wealth management arm. “The crucial factor for us is the economic data — and the U.S. economy is doing well.”

“我们要做的是,回到自身的进程和模式上来,”瑞银财富管理投资全球首席投资总监马克·H·海菲尔(Mark H. Haefele)说。“对我们来说,至关重要的是经济数据,美国经济现在表现不错。”

According to Mr. Golub, United States corporations have been consistently squeezing out higher profits each year. Companies have achieved this, he says, by increasing revenue, cutting costs and buying back stock, which increases earnings on a per-share basis, a number that investors carefully track. “It’s more sustainable than people think,” Mr. Golub said.

戈卢布透露,美国企业每年都在竭力创造更高的利润。他表示,企业通过增加营收、压缩成本和回购股票,实现了这一点。回购股票可以提高企业的每股收益,而投资者会密切关注这一数据。“这种增长的可持续性比人们想象得更强,”戈卢布说道。

But some analysts remain cautious. In a world characterized by low economic growth, corporate earnings are vulnerable. Stock valuations, the analysts say, may need to move down to reflect the risk that profits growth may wane.

但有些分析师依然比较谨慎。在一个以经济低增长为特征的世界里,企业营收是不稳固的。这些分析师表示,投资者可能需要调低股票的估值,以体现企业利润增长未来可能减慢的风险。

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